Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
Binary logistic regression model used in data classification and it is the strongest most flexible tool in study cases variable response binary when compared to linear regression. In this research, some classic methods were used to estimate parameters binary logistic regression model, included the maximum likelihood method, minimum chi-square method, weighted least squares, with bayes estimation , to choose the best method of estimation by default values to estimate parameters according two different models of general linear regression models ,and different s
... Show MoreA problem of solid waste became in the present day common global problem among all countries, whether developing or developed countries, and can say that no country in the world today is immuning from this dilemma which must find appropriate solutions. The problem has reached a stage that can not ignore or delay, but has became a daily problem occupies the minds of ecologists, economists and politicians took occupies center front in the lists of priorities for the countries in terms of finding solutions to the rapid scientific and radical them. and that transport costs constitute an important component of total costs borne by the municipal districts in the process of disposal of solid waste, so any improvement in the
... Show MoreThe use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode
... Show More
Abstract:
The prose poem of the 1990s is considered one of the important
contributions of the Iraqi poetic scene. The poem found a position in the Iraqi
poetry because of the favor of a group of youth poets who lefty clear traces.
Their linguistic techniques often violate the domain o9f language, significance
and image.
The poems of those youth poets moved the verse towards reality to
drink from its abundant springs in order to stand on a rigid ground. Their
linguistic traces are characterized by paradox and astonishment that are used
by the poet to construct his poem.
The paradox was considered an ideal means for constructing a
poem by some of them. The poem moved towards definitions and these
de
Iraqi insurance market need to develop products and to find new insurance policies to cover the damages of the violence and political commotions dangers and to meet the needs of the proposers.
The global insurance companies recently issued such policies to pay the losses wich caused by the violent political acts of vandalism suffered by the property and investments wich estimated billions of dollars.
... Show MoreOne of the most important intellectual issues, which receive attention is the issue of modernity, it has occupied the scholars of all time. However, modern poetry used to have special care in Iraq and in the Arab countries .. it is not strange that the concept of modernity is linked to history .. or having history as the most important dimension of its dimensions .. because Arab poetry is historical and it is moving into an area of the past that is still active in terms of language and literary image .. When some poets found that changing and modernizing poetry became a necessity of evolution, and one of the fundamentals of modernization, the cultural impact did not respond to the desire of poets, and their impulse in modern poetry
... Show MoreAfter the year 2003, Iraq went through multiple waves of violence and at different levels on the security, intellectual, political and social levels. Behind that stood several motives and incentives to enable violence that represented the first axis of research, the most important of which was the political motives that circulated an atmosphere that politics against society and transformed power into a field of political brutality against the individual and the group at once. There are also cultural, intellectual, media and economic motives such as weak cultural independence, poverty, marginalization, unemployment and want, and the absence of a media discourse that rejects violence but incites it, on the other ha
... Show MoreThe present study is concerned with the role of income tax in implementing economic goals in Iraq and treating the problems and pitfalls in the Iraq economy.
The study also aims at investigating the role of income tax in attracting promising favorite effects into economy.
The study was performed on data covering the period (2003 - 2012) with respect to the variables of (income tax, oil profits) as independent variables and (private consuming expenditure, private investmental expenditure, and standard figure of prices) as dependent variables. To analyze these data, a number of statistical descriptive and analytical techniques were used such as (percentage, standard variance, mediums, F test, T test and SPSS). It has been c
... Show MoreBlastocystis is a ubiquitous human and animal protozoa that inhabit the gastrointestinal tract. Metronidazole is considered the standard drug for the treatment of Blastocystis infection; however, there is growing evidence of treatment failure, hazardous side effects, and appearance of strains resistant to metronidazole. In the last era, many studies have been implicated in the quest for new treatments for Blastocystis infection, especially natural products. Attention has been focused on the effect of Amygdalin (B17) and pumpkin seed on eradicating parasitic infections. The current work was built up to explore the in vitro efficacy of two natural compounds, Amygdalin (B17) and pumpkin seeds against
... Show More