Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing, the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura, Semawa, Najaif) Considering the demand of each product (Gasoline, Kerosene,Gas Oil, Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution, which are testing by using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution . &
... Show MoreThe population studies are one of the difficult tasks facing the world in all periods. most of the researchers and who have relationship to population policies and development plans, may have succumbed to the idea that the population problem is based and confined mainly in the rate of increase in population, or the so – called population explosion, and not the content because of its pressure on resources and there is no problem of population if the resources are available and therefore no need for the development and implementation of population policies in any way . While the population policies here should take a range of general and comprehensive in every respect to population and demographic phenomena distribution, not only
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The purpose of the research is to determine how much do the external auditors’ qualifications in Iraq match the international requirements? And determine the necessary and priority requirements that the auditor should have in order to adapt with the changes in the community and the profession. The research partially focuses on comparing international institutes curriculum requirements with the local institutes’ curriculum requirements. Furthermore, it compares examinations of local students with the questions of these institutes and compares the requirements of these institutes to continuing vocational education with the local, as well as analyzes and presents the questionnaire results to find out the necessa
... Show MoreBy March 2020, a pandemic had been emerged Corona Virus Infection in 2019 (COVID-19), which was triggered through the sensitive pulmonary syndrome (SARS disease corona virus- 2 (SARS COV-2). Overall precise path physiology of SARS COV-2 still unknown, as does the involvement of every element of the acute or adaptable immunity systems. Additionally, evidence from additional corona virus groups, including SARS COV as well as the Middle East pulmonary disease, besides that, fresh discoveries might help researchers fully comprehend SARS CoV-2. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) serve a critical part in both detection of viral particles as well as the stimulation of the body's immune response. When TLR systems are activated, pro-inflammatory cy
... Show MoreQuality control is an effective statistical tool in the field of controlling the productivity to monitor and confirm the manufactured products to the standard qualities and the certified criteria for some products and services and its main purpose is to cope with the production and industrial development in the business and competitive market. Quality control charts are used to monitor the qualitative properties of the production procedures in addition to detecting the abnormal deviations in the production procedure. The multivariate Kernel Density Estimator control charts method was used which is one of the nonparametric methods that doesn’t require any assumptions regarding the distribution o
... Show MoreAcademia Open Vol 8 No 2 (2023): December DOI: 10.21070/acopen.8.2023.8087 . Article type: (Medicine)Impact of COVID-19 on Dental Students' Psychological Health Maryam Hameed Alwan, [email protected], (1) Department of Oral Diagnosis, College of Dentistry, Baghdad University, Iraq, Iraq (1) Corresponding author Abstract This study investigates the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on dental students at Baghdad University College of Dentistry. Conducted between December 2021 and January 2022, this cross-sectional survey aligns with ethical guidelines and the Helsinki Declaration. The study utilized Cochran's equation to determine a sample size of at least 400, ensuring a 95% confidence level with a 5% margin of e
... Show MoreThe possible effects of COVID-19 vaccines on reproductive health and male fertility in particular have been discussed intensely by the scientific community and the public since their introduction during the pandemic. On news outlets and social media platforms, many claims have been raised regarding the deleterious effects of COVID-19 vaccines on sperm quality without scientific evidence. In response to this emerging conflict, we designed this study to evaluate and assess the effect of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccine on male fertility represented by the semen analysis parameters.
Biomarkers such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR) have a role in the pathogenesis of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to explore the differences between serum levels of such biomarkers in severe and non-severe COVID-19 cases and compare them with normal people and to evaluate the sociodemographic variables and chronic diseases effect on the severity of COVID-19. The study included 160 subjects, divided into two groups, a case group of 80 patients, and a control group of 80 normal persons. The case group was divided into two subgroups: 40 severe COVID-19 patients and 40 patients with non-severe disease. Blood IL-6 was asses
... Show MoreIn this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best estimator is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).