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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Sudden Transition of Pharmacy Education from Traditional to Distance Learning in the Era of COVID-19: Action Steps of a Leading Pharmacy School in Iraq
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Education around the world has been negatively affected by the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Many institutions had to transition to distance learning in compliance with the enforced safety measures. Distance learning might work well for settings with stable internet connections, professional technical teams, and basic implementation of technology in education. In contrast, distance learning faces serious challenges in less fortunate settings with inferior infrastructure. This report aims to shed light on the immediate action steps taken at a leading pharmacy school in Iraq to accommodate for the enforced changes in pharmacy education. The University of Baghdad College of Pharmacy went from less than minimal technology impl

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Prediction of COVID 19 Disease Using Feature Selection Techniques
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Abstract<p>COVID 19 has spread rapidly around the world due to the lack of a suitable vaccine; therefore the early prediction of those infected with this virus is extremely important attempting to control it by quarantining the infected people and giving them possible medical attention to limit its spread. This work suggests a model for predicting the COVID 19 virus using feature selection techniques. The proposed model consists of three stages which include the preprocessing stage, the features selection stage, and the classification stage. This work uses a data set consists of 8571 records, with forty features for patients from different countries. Two feature selection techniques are used in </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 09 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Exacerbation of COVID 19 in Hypertensive Patients ( A review)
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Since its discovery in December 2019, corona virus was outbreak worldwide with very rapid rate, so it described by WHO as pandemic. It associated with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, and can enter to cells through Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE 2) receptor which play an important role as regulator for blood pressure. Hypertension is a potential risk factor for sever acute respiratory syndrome COVID-19, and associated with high mortality rate as shown in many epidemiological studies. Moreover, specific antihypertensive medications that infected patients were receiving are not known; only data about renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) are available.  

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Computer Science
Peer-to-Peer Video Conferencing Using Hybrid Content Distribution Model
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Publication Date
Tue Nov 16 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Clinical Laboratory Analysis
Hematological changes associated with COVID‐19 infection
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Abstract<sec><title>Background

The unresolved COVID‐19 pandemic considerably impacts the health services in Iraq and worldwide. Consecutive waves of mutated virus increased virus spread and further constrained health systems. Although molecular identification of the virus by polymerase chain reaction is the only recommended method in diagnosing COVID‐19 infection, radiological, biochemical, and hematological studies are substantially important in risk stratification, patient follow‐up, and outcome prediction.

Aim

This narrative review summarized the hematological changes including the blood indices, coagulative indicator

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Correlation of Serum Periostin Level with Disease Severity in Patients with Covid -19
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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging zoonotic disease caused by the new respiratory virus SARS-CoV2. It has a tropism in the lung tissues where excess target receptors exist. Periostin plays a role in subepithelial fibrosis associated with bronchial asthma. Since the Coronavirus's target is the human respiratory system, Periostin has been recently described as a valuable new biomarker in the diagnosis and evaluation of disease in patients with COVID-19 lung involvement. Objectives: To assess the level of Periostin in the serum of COVID-19 patients and to correlate its role in disease severity and prognosis. Subjects and Methods: Periostin serum levels were measured for 63 patients attending three main COVID

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 03 2022
Journal Name
Military Medical Science Letters
COVID-19 AMONG A SAMPLE OF IRAQI PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATIC DISEASES: A MULTICENTER STUDY
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Publication Date
Sat Jul 26 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Proposal to use the style of the slides in the estimation and forecasting Fertility rates in Iraq for the period 2012-2031
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It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using simulation to compare between parametric and nonparametric transfer function model
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In this paper, The transfer function model in the time series was estimated using different methods, including parametric Represented by the method of the Conditional Likelihood Function, as well as the use of abilities nonparametric are in two methods  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method, This research aims to compare those capabilities with the nonlinear transfer function model by using the style of simulation and the study of two models as output variable and one model as input variable in addition t

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