Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
This study aims to identify the repercussions of the Corona pandemic (Covid 19) and its impact on the educational and psychological functions of the Omani family from the point of view of a number of fathers and mothers. Drive for a group of fathers and mothers, some of whom work in the government sector and others are mothers enrolled in graduate studies programs at the university, their ages range between (30-50 years) totally (28) mothers and fathers: 22 mothers and 6 fathers. The results showed that the repercussions of the transformation of e-learning, home quarantine, social distancing, and the challenges associated with them were among the most frequent responses that posed a real challenge to the
... Show MoreVaccine hesitancy poses a significant risk to global recovery from COVID-19. To date however, there is little research exploring the psychological factors associated with vaccine acceptability and hesitancy in Iraq.
To explore attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination in Iraq. To establish the predictors of vaccine uptake and vaccine hesitancy in an Iraqi population.
Using a cross-sectional design, 7,778 participants completed an online questionnaire exploring their vaccination status, likelihood of infection, perc
This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a
... Show MoreMany production companies suffers from big losses because of high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.
The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.
I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures
... Show MoreRecently, the development and application of the hydrological models based on Geographical Information System (GIS) has increased around the world. One of the most important applications of GIS is mapping the Curve Number (CN) of a catchment. In this research, three softwares, such as an ArcView GIS 9.3 with ArcInfo, Arc Hydro Tool and Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (Hec-GeoHMS) model for ArcView GIS 9.3, were used to calculate CN of (19210 ha) Salt Creek watershed (SC) which is located in Osage County, Oklahoma, USA. Multi layers were combined and examined using the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) ArcMap 2009. These layers are soil layer (Soil Survey Geographic SSURGO), 30 m x 30 m resolution of Digital Elevati
... Show MoreGross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T
... Show MoreSufficient high-quality data are unavailable to describe the management approach and guideline of COVID-19 disease in pediatric and adolescent population which may be due to mild presentation in most of cases and less severe complications than older ages.
World Health Organization was concerned with the establishment of an approved guideline to manage the increasing number of COVID-19 patients worldwide aiming to prevent or lessen COVID-19 global burden.
The clinical features have a wide spectrum starting from uncomplicated mild illness, mild-moderate pneumonia, severe pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, septic shock, and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children.
Many important definitions
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This study aims to identify maternal death cases caused by Coronavirus infection 2019 pneumonia, including disease progression, fetal consequences, and the fatality cause.
Patients and methodology: A retrospective case collection of Iraqi pregnant women in their second and third trimesters diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia and died due to it.
The four cases were all of a young age, had a brief complaint period, and had no comorbidities. Fever, dyspnea, and fatigue were the most common symptoms. Hypoxia was present in all cases and was the cause of mortality in three cases, with thromboembolism being a potential cause in the fourth. Prelabour membrane breakup, fetal growth restriction, and fetal death are al
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