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jeasiq-2089
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Auto Risk Analysis in Iraq
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يتنامى يوما بعد يوم استخدام السيارات وتتعاضم اعدادها ، فهذا هو عصر السرعة، وخاصة في مجال النقل والمواصلات، والتي تتحقق باستخدام وسائل النقل المختلفة ومن بينها السيارات، وبالتالي اصبحت هذه الوسيلة ضرورية لتحقيق هذه السرعة ومن ضرورات الحياة في انجاز الاعمال.

وتتبارى مصانع السيارات فيما بينها لانتاج انواع السيارات بمواصفات عالية من المتانة والامان والراحة، وفي ذات الوقت اصبحت هندسة الطرق

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
MEDIA SUSTAINABILITY INDEX IN IRAQ
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The importance of this research lies in assessing the current state of media in Iraq based on international indicators and standards set by the Research and Scientific Exchange Council and UNESCO. That is to measure the strength and durability of media after 9 April 2003. These indicators are divided into five objectives that measure and describe each of the five research objectives that we seek to test through the points system.

 

Based on the foregoing, researchers in Iraqi media find that these conditions may lead to further decline unless measures are taken to help avoid mistakes, provide the requirements for development and progress. In addition, care from the State is needed to support this process, which would

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Frustrations of sectarian coexistence and mechanisms to activate peaceful coexistence: Iraq as a model
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Abstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Poverty and its Relations to Some Social Variables (Children in the Primary Stage as a Model)
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The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most important phenomena facing the world at large. Despite the tremendous technological progress witnessed by mankind and despite the unprecedented high levels of world economic production, poverty remains the greatest challenge facing the world. Statistics and studies have shown that poverty is caused by several problems: (health, social, economic, educational, etc.) These problems are obstacles to the ability to obtain employment opportunities, which leads in the beginning to the growth phenomenon of unemployment, and ultimately to the growth of poverty.

The results of a range of research in the field of psychology have confirmed that children from poor homes suffer from a high level of

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Psychosocial Rehabilitation
Predicting the Sporting Achievement in the Pole Vault for Men Using Artificial Neural Networks
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The physical sports sector in Iraq suffers from the problem of achieving sports achievements in individual and team games in various Asian and international competitions, for many reasons, including the lack of exploitation of modern, accurate and flexible technologies and means, especially in the field of information technology, especially the technology of artificial neural networks. The main goal of this study is to build an intelligent mathematical model to predict sport achievement in pole vaulting for men, the methodology of the research included the use of five variables as inputs to the neural network, which are Avarage of Speed (m/sec in Before distance 05 meters latest and Distance 05 meters latest, The maximum speed achieved in t

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
“Using the Statistical Analysis for deduction the childhood status in Iraq during 2006-2010”
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   To deduct the childhood status in Iraq, it was important manner to use statistical tools and approaches concerned with interpreting the causal relationships and their attitudes and use classification method for the important effects (variables) to draw an obvious picture of the phenomena under study in order to make it useful through investing, updating and improving it in by demographic studies in the future. Two statistical methods had been used in the field of analyzing data of multivariate analysis namely, Cluster Analysis and Factor Analysis.  

The present study focuses on four fundamental axes .The nutrition axis, health axis, Educational axis, and the social axis. The study has ca

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimation Mean Wind Speed in Iraq By Using Parametric And Nonparametric Linear Mixed Models
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In this research, the one of the most important model and widely used in many and applications is linear mixed model, which widely used to analysis the longitudinal data that characterized by the repeated measures form .where estimating linear mixed model by using two methods (parametric and nonparametric) and used to estimate the conditional mean and marginal mean in linear mixed model ,A comparison between number of models is made to get the best model that will represent the mean wind speed in Iraq.The application is concerned with 8 meteorological stations in Iraq that we selected randomly and   then we take a monthly data about wind speed over ten years Then average it over each month in corresponding year, so we g

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Contribution of Behavioral Disorders to Predicting Bullying Patterns in a Sample of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: College of Education and Arts - Northern Border University - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Impact of Financial Guarantee Assessmeats on Accounting Profite: Apractical Research In Dell Company
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The research specialized in examining the role of guarantees and their impact on accounting benefits quality using statistical analysis to the income before and after the impact of guarantee on the accounting profits.This research depended on the inductive approach, which ensures that companies could manipulate in benefits through a variety of means including the guarantees. As it is possible that the companies can use the policy of guarantee as a strategy in business deal. The research aimed to highlight the different companies' practices on policies guarantee and its impact on accounting benefits. The benefit of Dell Company has been chosen as a sample for the research because of the availability of interim data from the company for te

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