Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify and estimate the long memory parameter in partially integrated time series. One of the most common models used to represent time series that have a long memory is the ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are a fractional number called the fractional parameter. To analyze and determine the ARFIMA model, the fractal parameter must be estimated. There are many methods for fractional parameter estimation. In this research, the estimation methods were divided into indirect methods, where the Hurst parameter is estimated fir
... Show MoreThe research aims to measure the extent of the impact of Earnings quality in the continuity of the company for a sample of private commercial banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The research sample included (15) of the listed commercial banks that continue to issue their financial statements for the period from (2009-2018).The research relied on three main models of measurement and on four steps. The first step is to measure the Persistence (Earnings Quality) by Depending the sustainability model. While the second step included measuring the Predictability of accounting profits by deriving the square root of the disparity of the estimation error from the first model Persistence (Earnings Quality), and the third step included
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Agricultural production, food security and safety, public health animal welfare, access to markets and alleviation of rural poverty have been achieved by controlling on veterinary services to prevent animal disease. World organization for animal health guidelines focus on controlling of animal disease which depends on good governance and veterinary services quality. The aim of veterinary services is controlling and preventing animal disease some of other aspects; it's responsibility of early detection, rapid response to outbreaks of emerging or re-emerging animal disease, optimizing quality and effectiveness of disease
... Show MoreMany problems were encountered during the drilling operations in Zubair oilfield. Stuckpipe, wellbore instability, breakouts and washouts, which increased the critical limits problems, were observed in many wells in this field, therefore an extra non-productive time added to the total drilling time, which will lead to an extra cost spent. A 1D Mechanical Earth Model (1D MEM) was built to suggest many solutions to such types of problems. An overpressured zone is noticed and an alternative mud weigh window is predicted depending on the results of the 1D MEM. Results of this study are diagnosed and wellbore instability problems are predicted in an efficient way using the 1D MEM. Suitable alternative solutions are presented
... Show MoreMany studies and researches represented the importance of the planning and designing criteria's. Planning and Designing issue influence by three factors, firstly: The Present situation of life is always exchanging and developing. Secondly: Design work represents views of problem that never appear at the beginning of the work but only by plan implementation which need to in some cases to modifying the specify aims and criteria's. Thirdly: Never establish criteria's and aims that can be used as a reference before starting design and planning process. This research will study present situation of the services for residential areas criteria's and planning legitimate in some designed cities in Iraq with different levels (neighborhood,
... Show MoreThe development issue is considered as one of the most important matters of concern to governments, intellectuals and specialists in the contemporary world, especially in developing countries that are trying hard to move out of the afflicting underdevelopment domain to a brighter future and achieve the aspirations of those countries through organized planning which take advantage of available resources, whether material or humanitarian, in the best way possible.
The development process are taking place at multiple levels ranging from national to regional to local where the community is stimulated and excited for the cooperation, participation and preparation to perform planned change in the methods of thinking, acting and production.<
This study was conducted on a sample of commercial banks in Iraq, chosen according number of considerations for twenty banks, contained two public banks and eighteen private banks. &
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to design a proposed model for a document to insure the mistakes of the medical profession in estimating the compensation for medical errors. The medical profession is an honest profession aimed primarily at serving human and human beings. In this case, the doctor may be subject to error and error , And the research has adopted the descriptive approach and the research reached several conclusions, the most prominent of which is no one to bear the responsibility of medical error, although the responsibility shared and the doctor contributes to them, doctors do not deal with patients according to their educational level and cultural and there are some doctors do not inform patients The absence of a document to insu
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There is poverty because of the difference in capacity and material resources, Previously poverty known on the basis of disparity between income and inadequate income. It realize later that fare wore effects of poverty is the erosion of human capital. The human poverty is the loss of food, education, health care and shelter.
In order to provide a database that target the poor , it have been propped a document on the features of poverty and the whereabouts of the poor and the rate of disparity between provinces.
Here the goal of the research is the identify the factors affecti
... Show MoreThe parametric programming considered as type of sensitivity analysis. In this research concerning to study the effect of the variations on linear programming model (objective function coefficients and right hand side) on the optimal solution. To determine the parameter (θ) value (-5≤ θ ≤5).Whereas the result، the objective function equal zero and the decision variables are non basic، when the parameter (θ = -5).The objective function value increases when the parameter (θ= 5) and the decision variables are basic، with the except of X24, X34.Whenever the parameter value increase, the objectiv
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