Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
إن التطور الهائل في منظومة تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات في العالم , أثر كثيراً في الجوانب الحياتية والاجتماعية والاقتصادية والسياسية والثقافية عامة والتربوية والتعليمية خاصة, إذ أصبح لها دور كبير في تسيير الكثير من الأمور. ولا بد من القول ان المؤسسات والمنظمات لا يمكن ان تنتقل من القرن العشرين الى القرن الحادي والعشرين إلا إذا أفادت من تكنولوجيا المعلومات والاتصالات, إذ توافر هذه التكنولوجيا الكثير من ال
... Show Moreيرسم الشاعر صورة بالكلمات، ومتى ما تتابعت الصور صارت تمثل لوحة شعرية على قدر كبير من الفنية والابداع, وقد أكثر ديك الجن في شعره من هذه اللوحات ويلاحظ القارئ أن الرمز يعمل عملا مهما في تشكيل اللوحة، وظهرت أنواع متعددة من اللوحات منها اللوحة الرثائية, والغزلية, ومن الرموز التي وظفها ديك الجن رمز الظبي, رمز الديك, واستعمل رمز القبر وظهرت لوحات متنوعة في شعره، ومنها اللوحة الخمرية التي تجعل للخمرة احساسا ومشاعر وا
... Show Moreهدف البحث إلى الکشف عن العلاقة بين الصحة النفسية وتقدير الذات لدى أطفال الشوارع، تألفت عينة البحث من (50) طفلاَ وطفلة، وتم تطبيق مقياسا البحث - مقياس الصحة النفسية ومقياس تقدير الذات وهما (من إعداد الباحثة)، وقد اسفرت نتائج البحث عن إن أطفال الشوارع اظهروا مستوى منخفض في الصحة النفسية وکذلک الحال بالنسبة لتقدير الذات، فضلاً عن وجود علاقة ارتباطية موجبة دالة إحصائيا بين الصحة النفسية وتقدير الذات. وفي ضوء نتائج
... Show Moreﺔﻴﻋﺍﺫﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻨﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﰲ ﲑﺒﻛ ﺭﻮﻄﺗ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺎﺼﺗﻻﺍ ﺮﺼﻋ ﻩﺪﻬﺷ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﰲ ﺔﻴﻧﻮﻳﺰﻔﻠﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺍ ﺢﺴﻓ ﰲ ﻢﻬﺳﺃ ﺕﺎﻄﶈﺍ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺔﻴﻧﻮﻳﺰﻔﻠﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﻘﻟﺍ ﺚﺒﻟ ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻝﺎ ( ﺔﻴﺿﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺑﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ( ﱵﻟﺍ ﺔﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﰲ ﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺪﻋﺎﺳ ﺎﳑﻭ ، ﺕﺎﻴﺋﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺩﺎﺳ ﻥﺃ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﺣ ﲑﻏ ﺕﺎﻴﻌﲨ ﻭ
... Show MoreThis study aims at defining the concept of the fragile state, a term that came into existence in 2014, when the states that had internal Problems and external interventions were referred to as the failure states. However, the indicators for their designation and the criteria adopted are 12 indicators that address all aspects of the State’s duties vis-a-vis its citizens. The study examined the reasons that led to the continuation of Iraq within the fragile states, and the selection of the five years within the time limits of the study due to the factors that led to the decline of Iraq and falling back within the most fragile countries. The study dealt with the fragile state challenges to the media reality as a result of the change of it
... Show MoreBased on the systematic scientific investigation of artistic achievement, researchers (critics) adhere to mechanisms based on epistemology, through which it is envisaged to reveal the meaning of the achievement as the product of three actors: the effectiveness of an artistic sense, the effectiveness of an idea, and the arousal of taste according to systematic criticism procedures that investigate the new artistic achievement. Or, in a specific way, the possibility of meaning in all the accomplished from the aesthetics of artistic presentation and the character of the self-accomplished by the "artist" and the critic invokes his critical tools with certain cognitive foundations. In defining its nature from the rest of the other cultural ac
... Show MoreThe objective Effect of Internal and External Environment and its Psychological & Practical Reflection on the Political Decision-Making Process