Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.
The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st
... Show MoreThe education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity
... Show MoreThe theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra
... Show MoreThe study aimed to explaining the concepts of water footprint and virtual water and how these two concepts could use to achieve water savings at the local level to meet the water supply deficit in Iraq, which is expected to increase in the coming years and influence of that on food security in Iraq by using these concepts when drawing production, irrigated and import plans in Iraq. The study aimed to studying the water footprint and virtual water and their impact on the foreign trade for wheat and rice crops during the period 2000-2022 and estimating the most important indicators of virtual water and the water footprint of the study crops due to the importance of these criteria in det
Regression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreBecause the Coronavirus epidemic spread in Iraq, the COVID-19 epidemic of people quarantined due to infection is our application in this work. The numerical simulation methods used in this research are more suitable than other analytical and numerical methods because they solve random systems. Since the Covid-19 epidemic system has random variables coefficients, these methods are used. Suitable numerical simulation methods have been applied to solve the COVID-19 epidemic model in Iraq. The analytical results of the Variation iteration method (VIM) are executed to compare the results. One numerical method which is the Finite difference method (FD) has been used to solve the Coronavirus model and for comparison purposes. The numerical simulat
... Show MoreThis present paper aim at knowing the process of evaluating the training program that could be applied in Maysan Health office for it significance and importance in field of management and vocational staff preparations of high scientific experience in different fields of Health. The society of research includes staffs working in Maysan Health Office , of specialists , dentists, pharmacists, laboratories, nursing and administrators. Their number is 100 employees, the researcher has designed questionnaire by depending on "Kirkpatrick" for assessing the training . The researcher has used thorough survey and has entailed 90 questionnaire,
... Show MoreThe research aims to evaluate Evaluation of the investments Iraqi fund for External development through the application of financial tools to a number of companies of the Iraqi Fund for External Development, and from the point of view to achieve the best returns from investment and the feasibility of the investments of the Iraqi Fund for External Development and the research community represents the Iraqi Fund for External Development and the amount of (28) A company, while the research sample is (4) companies (the Arab Petroleum Transportation Services Company, the Arab Iraqi Company for Livestock Development, the Bauhaus Company for prefabricated buildings and mineral installations, the Arab Fisheries Company) that were chosen
... Show MoreThis study aimed at identifying the extent to which the social worker used the techniques of group discussion in the professional practice with the groups of school activity in the schools of Tubas governorate in light of some variables (gender, years of experience, academic qualification). The analytical descriptive method was used due to its suitability for the objectives of the study. A questionnaire was designed to collect data that included (30) items, distributed in three areas .The validity and reliability of the tool were verified and then distributed to the study sample.
The results of the study showed that the highest averages were in the discussion stage domain, where the pre-discussion stage was m
... Show MoreThe study aimed to reach the best rating for the views and variables in the totals characterized by qualities and characteristics common within each group and distinguish them from aggregates other for the purpose of distinguishing between Iraqi provinces which suffer from deprivation, for the purpose of identifying the status of those provinces in the early allowing interested parties and regulators to intervene to take appropriate corrective action in a timely manner. Style has been used cluster analysis Cluster analysis to reach the best rating to those totals from the provinces that suffer from problems, where the provinces were classified, based on the variables (Edu
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