Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The purpose of the research is to identify the social capital of the Municipality of Samawah Municipality by defining the level of its three dimensions (the structural dimension, the relational dimension and the cognitive dimension) and identifying the appropriate means that contribute to increasing the structural empowerment of the workers in the Municipality of Samawah. Between the social capital and the structural empowerment of the workers. From the perspective of social capital, the researchers examined the correlation and the effect of dimensions (structural, relational, cognitive) on the structural empowerment of the workers and with data collected from a sample of (168) Samawah, which is part of the Ministry of Constructi
... Show MoreThis research a study model of linear regression problem of autocorrelation of random error is spread when a normal distribution as used in linear regression analysis for relationship between variables and through this relationship can predict the value of a variable with the values of other variables, and was comparing methods (method of least squares, method of the average un-weighted, Thiel method and Laplace method) using the mean square error (MSE) boxes and simulation and the study included fore sizes of samples (15, 30, 60, 100). The results showed that the least-squares method is best, applying the fore methods of buckwheat production data and the cultivated area of the provinces of Iraq for years (2010), (2011), (2012),
... Show MoreThe current research aimed to identify the level of moral identity and social affiliation among students exposed to shock pressures, as well as to reveal the relationship between these variables. To achieve these objectives, the researcher adopted the diagnostic tool for the measure of post-traumatic stress disorder (PDS-5) scale (Foa, 2013) translated to Arabic language by (Imran, 2017). The researcher also adopted the moral identity scale built by (Al-Bayati, 2015) and the measure of social affiliation built by (Al-Jashami, 2013), which were applied to a random sample of (200) male and female students chose from al Anbar University. They were exposed to shock pressures. The results of the research showed that the sample has an average
... Show MoreThe research seeks to know the social loafing of kindergarten teachers and their relation to personality traits. In order to achieve the research objectives, the researcher constructed the social loafing scale, which she applied to kindergarten teachers. The scale consists of (22) paragraphs. It has good credibility and stability. The coefficient of stability (85.0) was the retest method and (81.0) Alpha Cronbach equation. In addition, the researcher has adopted (Raymond Cattel) personality traits scale, which has been adapted to the Arab environment (Abdel Rahman and Abu Abada,1998), The scale consists of (39) paragraphs, and enjoys the apparent honesty. The measure of social loafing and the measure of personality traits was applied to
... Show MoreThe study aims to use the European Excellence Model (EFQM) in assessing the institutional performance of the National Center for Administrative Development and Information Technology in order to determine the gap between the actual reality of the performance of the Center and the standards adopted in the model, in order to know the extent to which the Center seeks to achieve excellence in performance to improve the level of services provided and the adoption of methods Modern and contemporary management in the evaluation of its institutional performance.
The problem of the study was the absence of an institutional performance evaluation system at the centre whereby weaknesses (areas of improvement) and st
... Show MoreThe education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity
... Show MoreTechnological and digital development has allowed the emergence of many methods of producing semantics on social media sites within semiotic and propagandistic frameworks. This is what made the image appear in different molds and shapes, especially as it is the first material for visual perception.
This made the Israeli propaganda discourse use it as an important tool to manage the content of suggestive messages with semiological connotations. By doing so, such tool uses social networking sites as an appropriate environment to achieve those goals, which are related to cases of manipulating emotions and minds. It, moreover, changes convictions, attitudes, trends and behaviors according to what the propaganda planner wants.
Many Isra
The physical sports sector in Iraq suffers from the problem of achieving sports achievements in individual and team games in various Asian and international competitions, for many reasons, including the lack of exploitation of modern, accurate and flexible technologies and means, especially in the field of information technology, especially the technology of artificial neural networks. The main goal of this study is to build an intelligent mathematical model to predict sport achievement in pole vaulting for men, the methodology of the research included the use of five variables as inputs to the neural network, which are Avarage of Speed (m/sec in Before distance 05 meters latest and Distance 05 meters latest, The maximum speed achieved in t
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreThe theme of this Study presents analysis and discuss to the "Share the framework for assessing inflation," a practical study in a sample of joint stock companies listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange for the years (2009-2013). To determine the extent of the disparity between the nominal value of shares (Nominal Value) before deducting inflation and the real value (Real Value) per share, after deducting inflation in the case of zero growth. The study relied on annual reports of the companies of the research sample of the Iraq Stock Exchange, as well as the Iraqi Securities Commission. Besides the annual reports issued by the Ministry of Planning, as well as annual reports and statistical bulletin issued by the Central Bank of Iraq. It is fra
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