Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstract:
Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.
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Most of World nations are striving to provide the necessary needs to protect their economic properties assets against natural or abnormal disasters that may be inflicted on such property and the means that used by such countries to reduce the damages is insurance, whereas insurance as a system that collects and distributes different risks into the group thus to achieve a social symbiosis between individuals. The system works to transfer the risks from the individual to the group and then distributes the losses to all members of the group.
According to the importance of the insurance sector and the need to develop it as well as working on improving its performance, this search aims to identify the ac
... Show MoreThis article presents the results of an experimental investigation of using carbon fiber–reinforced polymer sheets to enhance the behavior of reinforced concrete deep beams with large web openings in shear spans. A set of 18 specimens were fabricated and tested up to a failure to evaluate the structural performance in terms of cracking, deformation, and load-carrying capacity. All tested specimens were with 1500-mm length, 500-mm cross-sectional deep, and 150-mm wide. Parameters that studied were opening size, opening location, and the strengthening factor. Two deep beams were implemented as control specimens without opening and without strengthening. Eight deep beams were fabricated with openings but without strengthening, while
... Show MoreThis article presents the results of an experimental investigation of using carbon fiber–reinforced polymer sheets to enhance the behavior of reinforced concrete deep beams with large web openings in shear spans. A set of 18 specimens were fabricated and tested up to a failure to evaluate the structural performance in terms of cracking, deformation, and load-carrying capacity. All tested specimens were with 1500-mm length, 500-mm cross-sectional deep, and 150-mm wide. Parameters that studied were opening size, opening location, and the strengthening factor. Two deep beams were implemented as control specimens without opening and without strengthening. Eight deep beams were fabricated with openings but without strengthening, while
... Show MoreThis paper proposes a new encryption method. It combines two cipher algorithms, i.e., DES and AES, to generate hybrid keys. This combination strengthens the proposed W-method by generating high randomized keys. Two points can represent the reliability of any encryption technique. Firstly, is the key generation; therefore, our approach merges 64 bits of DES with 64 bits of AES to produce 128 bits as a root key for all remaining keys that are 15. This complexity increases the level of the ciphering process. Moreover, it shifts the operation one bit only to the right. Secondly is the nature of the encryption process. It includes two keys and mixes one round of DES with one round of AES to reduce the performance time. The W-method deals with
... Show MoreThe social tolerance is one of the important variables in personality; it helps growth and development of individual's personality. Theories and the students affirmed that social Tolerance affects the society growth and development as well.
The presents study aims:
1. Estimating the social Tolerance for Baghdad College students.
2. Realizing how College students vary in social Tolerance according to:
Sex, (Male, Female) ٍSpecialization (Scientific, Humanity).
3. Realizing the nature of relationship between social Tolerance of College students and father and mother styles. To achieve this research goals the researcher established parameter (scale) for social Tolerance applied to sample of (500) students male and female. Th
Research Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of
This study aims to identify both the importance of using (LinkedIn) and its drawbacks for researchers and specialists in the field of information and knowledge technologies. The study relied mainly on the statistical method (analytical method) from the collection of data tools (questionnaire) that was distributed electronically (Google Forms) to the sample community of (55) instructors. The feedback received illustrates that (46) instructors among those who participated in the questionnaire subscribed to (LinkedIn) and the rest did not. Their data was analyzed statistically, and the general arithmetic mean and the hypothetical mean was extracted for them to achieve the objectives of the study and prove their hypotheses. The site positively
... Show MoreThe public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi
... Show MoreIn this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was
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