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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"RUF procedures forgetting the best subset linear regression model"
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The purpose behind building the linear regression model is to describe the real linear relation between any explanatory variable in the model and the dependent one, on the basis of the fact that the dependent variable is a linear function of the explanatory variables and one can use it for prediction and control. This purpose does not cometrue without getting significant, stable and reasonable estimatros for the parameters of the model, specifically regression-coefficients. The researcher found that "RUF" the criterian that he had suggested accurate and sufficient to accomplish that purpose when multicollinearity exists provided that the adequate model that satisfies the standard assumpitions of the error-term can be assigned. It

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choose the best model to measure the impact of human capital on labor productivityIn the manufacturing sector in Iraq
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In this paper all possible regressions procedure as well as stepwise regression procedure were applied to select the best regression equation that explain the effect of human capital represented by different levels of human cadres on the productivity of the processing industries sector in Iraq by employing the data of a time series consisting of 21 years period. The statistical program SPSS was used to perform the required calculations.

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The accountancy Using of Gaols programming model to determine the optimal production mix
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The research aims to determine the mix of production optimization in the case of several conflicting objectives to be achieved at the same time, therefore, discussions dealt with the concept of programming goals and entrances to be resolved and dealt with the general formula for the programming model the goals and finally determine the mix of production optimization using a programming model targets to the default case.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Renewable energy (solar energy) and its potential for electricity generation in Iraq
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The world's renewable energy sources have taken on great importance, for its cleanness and its environmental effects as well as being a renewable source, Increased demand for fossil energy sources is also causing global warming and climate change. Iraq is an appropriate area for renewable energy This study shows that renewable alternative energy has not been used sufficiently enough at present. But this energy can play an important role in the future of renewable energy in Iraq. This research aims to study the renewable energy in Iraq (solar energy) and it is appropriate to develop this alternative energy for crude oil, which is characterized by the use of the most appropriate and less economical and more environmentally friendly. Solar

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Use of Replacement Models On Determine the Optimal Time to Replacement
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Abstract:-

            The approach maintenance and replacement one of techniques of operations research whom cares of the failure experienced by a lot of production lines which consist of a set of machines and equipment, which in turn exposed to the failure or work stoppages over the lifetime, which requires reducing the working time of these machines or equipment below what can or conuct  maintenance process once in a while or a replacement for one part of the machine or replace one of the machines in production lines. In this research is the study of the failure s that occur in some parts of one of the machines for the General Company for Vege

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of measurement and analysis of quality costs on continuous improvement: Applied research in the Directorate General for the distribution of electric power in the Middle Euphrates
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The research aims to identify the theoretical foundations for measuring and analyzing quality costs and continuous improvement, as well as measuring and analyzing quality costs for the Directorate of Electricity Supply / Middle Euphrates and continuous improvement of the distribution of electrical energy,The problem was represented by the high costs of failure and waste in electrical energy result to the excesses on the network and the missing (lost) energy,Thus, measuring and analyzing quality costs for the distribution of electrical energy and identifying continuous improvement leads to a reduction in missing and an increase in sales, as the research reached many conclusions, the most important of which is the high percentage o

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
Payment of administrative responsibility for electric power facility: a comparative study
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The scope of the electrical power facility is determined by its employees' mistakes as follows and subject to its control and guidance, as well as those affiliated with mechanical machines or dangerous things that require special attention, and can be denied the responsibility based on a number of means to which the defendant is resorted to it, the law has been granted For the requirements of justice and to judge the judiciary in many of the provisions issued by an investigation into the principle of equity. The most important mistakes, which are the most important means that the electric power facility can resort to existing responsibility in accordance with Article (219) of the Iraqi Civil Law, which is responsible for fulfilling acts,

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using TD-ABC technology to determine idle production capacity: An applied research in Al-Wasat Oil Company
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The aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Transitional justice in light of the change in the Arab region
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Many changes took place in a number of Arab countries, most of which ended with the change of the ruling leadership and a new coming. The same change brought about the hopes of the people to turn the page of the past into a democracy through which to overcome the grievances of previous years and achieve justice in all its aspects. The same new grievances have been added to that precedent and justice has not yet been achieved. Here we try to address the justice that is applied in the stages of change or transitional stages, which have been called, ie transitional justice, which has mechanisms and conditions of different application between countries, each of which the conditions applied in them and through a review of these mechanisms bet

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