Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Many academics have concentrated on applying machine learning to retrieve information from databases to enable researchers to perform better. A difficult issue in prediction models is the selection of practical strategies that yield satisfactory forecast accuracy. Traditional software testing techniques have been extended to testing machine learning systems; however, they are insufficient for the latter because of the diversity of problems that machine learning systems create. Hence, the proposed methodologies were used to predict flight prices. A variety of artificial intelligence algorithms are used to attain the required, such as Bayesian modeling techniques such as Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), Adaptive boosting (ADA), Deci
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the educational and psychological effects of the positive and negative aspects of using social networking websites. The researcher administered a number of questions to (250) users of different types of social networking websites. He analyzed his research results and obtained a number of results. The research has reached a number of recommendations and suggestion: Regulating the use of social media. Monitoring the parents of the sites used by children in a way that they do not feel they are observers. It is necessary to devote an hour daily to show the importance of real social life for children other than using social media. It is necessary to show the importance of choosing friends who hav
... Show MoreIn this paper new methods were presented based on technique of differences which is the difference- based modified jackknifed generalized ridge regression estimator(DMJGR) and difference-based generalized jackknifed ridge regression estimator(DGJR), in estimating the parameters of linear part of the partially linear model. As for the nonlinear part represented by the nonparametric function, it was estimated using Nadaraya Watson smoother. The partially linear model was compared using these proposed methods with other estimators based on differencing technique through the MSE comparison criterion in simulation study.
This study aims to identify how the Zakat Fund contributes to financing entrepreneurial projects; and the role that these projects play in achieving economic and social development, despite the importance that contracting projects have in most countries as the main engine of growth; however, they still face many challenges that In the forefront of which is the challenge of obtaining financing; in this regard, it is possible to resort to the use of Zakat funds in the Islamic economy as it is a funding source that is closely proportional to the characteristics and goals of entrepreneurial projects in achieving development;
 
... Show MoreIn this research , we study the inverse Gompertz distribution (IG) and estimate the survival function of the distribution , and the survival function was evaluated using three methods (the Maximum likelihood, least squares, and percentiles estimators) and choosing the best method estimation ,as it was found that the best method for estimating the survival function is the squares-least method because it has the lowest IMSE and for all sample sizes
The researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
... Show MoreThis paper considers and proposes new estimators that depend on the sample and on prior information in the case that they either are equally or are not equally important in the model. The prior information is described as linear stochastic restrictions. We study the properties and the performances of these estimators compared to other common estimators using the mean squared error as a criterion for the goodness of fit. A numerical example and a simulation study are proposed to explain the performance of the estimators.
Most of World nations are striving to provide the necessary needs to protect their economic properties assets against natural or abnormal disasters that may be inflicted on such property and the means that used by such countries to reduce the damages is insurance, whereas insurance as a system that collects and distributes different risks into the group thus to achieve a social symbiosis between individuals. The system works to transfer the risks from the individual to the group and then distributes the losses to all members of the group.
According to the importance of the insurance sector and the need to develop it as well as working on improving its performance, this search aims to identify the ac
... Show MoreResearch Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of