The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
In this work, the occurrence conditions of both local Bifurcation and persistence were studied, Saddle-node bifurcation appears near fourth point, near the first point, the second point and the third point a transcritical bifurcation occurred but no pitchfork bifurcation happened near any of the four equilibrium points. In addition to study conditions for Hopf-bifurcation near positive stable point that is the fourth point. Besides discuss persistence occurrence as globally property of the food chain of three species include prey, first predator and top predator with impact of toxin in all species and harvesting effect on the predator’s only. Numerical results for the set of hypothe
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In this search, we examined the factorial experiments and the study of the significance of the main effects, the interaction of the factors and their simple effects by the F test (ANOVA) for analyze the data of the factorial experience. It is also known that the analysis of variance requires several assumptions to achieve them, Therefore, in case of violation of one of these conditions we conduct a transform to the data in order to match or achieve the conditions of analysis of variance, but it was noted that these transfers do not produce accurate results, so we resort to tests or non-parametric methods that work as a solution or alternative to the parametric tests , these method
... Show MoreLinear regression is one of the most important statistical tools through which it is possible to know the relationship between the response variable and one variable (or more) of the independent variable(s), which is often used in various fields of science. Heteroscedastic is one of the linear regression problems, the effect of which leads to inaccurate conclusions. The problem of heteroscedastic may be accompanied by the presence of extreme outliers in the independent variables (High leverage points) (HLPs), the presence of (HLPs) in the data set result unrealistic estimates and misleading inferences. In this paper, we review some of the robust
... Show MoreResults showed that the optimum conditions for production of inulunase from isolate Kluyveromyces marxianus AY2 by submerged culture could be achieved by using inulin as carbon source at a concentration of 2% with mixture of yeast extract and ammonium sulphate in a ratio of 1:1 in a concentration of 1% at initial pH 5.5 after incubation for 42 hours at 30ºC.
In this work laser detection and tracking system (LDTS) is designed and implemented using a fuzzy logic controller (FLC). A 5 mW He-Ne laser system and an array of nine PN photodiodes are used in the detection system. The FLC is simulated using MATLAB package and the result is stored in a lock up table to use it in the real time operation of the system. The results give a good system response in the target detection and tracking in the real time operation.
Toxoplasma gondii is an opportunistic parasite in immune-compromised persons. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis in psoriasis patients is investigated. In addition, the treatment effect on psoriasis patients infected with toxoplasmosis through evaluating Tumor Necrosis Factor-α (TNF-α) cytokine levels is studied. Blood samples were collected from 130 individuals who involved 60 control samples and 70 samples with psoriasis. They attended Medical City Hospital in Baghdad province from October 2017 - February 2018. Then, the anti- T. gondii antibodies (IgM and IgG) and TNF- α in the sera were determined via the enzyme linked immune-sorbent assay. The highe
... Show MoreDeveloped and underdevelopment countries, on equal terms, face the problem of budget deficiency. Budget deficiency means that the public expenditure surpasses the public revenues. This, on the international level, is one of the most serious economic problems with many direct effects on the national economy, and depends, basically, on its finance chosen method. Looking for a solution to this problem, for this reason and many other ones, has been highlighted in spite of the many attempts to reduce the role of the governmental expenditure. Budget deficiency can not be attributed to a single unique cause since it is complex phenomenons the causes of which are related to many factors contribute to its occurrence, some of which refer t
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Most of the studies on this subject, small industrial projects, by researchers and scholars in the economic field show the great and increasing importance of doing this kind of projects, the extent of which can be determined by the contribution of these projects to indicators and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. So this research aims to show the extent of the economic contribution of projects in selected international experiences and in the Iraqi economy. As international experiences have provided the opportunity for the progress and growth of small projects in their economies, which led to an increase in the contribution of these projects in the recruitment of economically active manpower, in added
... Show MoreIn the present study, the effects of brake pad particles of lung and liver histological sections were evaluated for (60) adult male mice. The animals were divided into three groups ( A,B,C) according to the periods of exposure (4, 8, and 12) weeks respectively exposed to brake pad particles in addition to the control groups (F) exposed to fresh air only. A special inhalation chamber designed locally has been used to expose the animals. The exposure to brake pad particles was (2.228) µg/m³ for 30 min/day, 5 days/week for (4,8and12) weeks respectively.
The examination in group (A) of the histological sections of the lung showed the thickness of interalveolar septa. Also, a congestion of alveolar capillary was marked indicat
... Show MoreThe subject of the information technology system ( ITS ) of the important issues And contemporary thought in management, and various types of organizations seeking to apply and try to
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