The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
It is recognized that organisms live and interact in groups, exposing them to various elements like disease, fear, hunting cooperation, and others. As a result, in this paper, we adopted the construction of a mathematical model that describes the interaction of the prey with the predator when there is an infectious disease, as well as the predator community's characteristic of cooperation in hunting, which generates great fear in the prey community. Furthermore, the presence of an incubation period for the disease provides a delay in disease transmission from diseased predators to healthy predators. This research aims to examine the proposed mathematical model's solution behavior to better understand these elements' impact on an eco-epidemi
... Show MoreThe basic analytical formula for particle-hole state densities is derived based on the non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) for the single-particle level density (s.p.l.d.) dependence on particle excitation energy u. Two methods are illustrated in this work, the first depends on Taylor series expansion of the s.p.l.d. about u, while the second uses direct analytical derivation of the state density formula. This treatment is applied for a system composing from one kind of fermions and for uncorrected physical system. The important corrections due to Pauli blocking was added to the present formula. Analytical comparisons with the standard formulae for ESM are made and it is shown that the solution reduces to earlier formulae providing m
... Show MoreThe twelve samples of agricultural soils from four regions in Al-Najaf governorate with sampling plant with soil. Physical properties of the soil where studied, such as electrical conductivity ranged from (136.33-1070.00)μS/cm-3, and moisture which ranged between the values (0.39-36.48)%. The chemical analysis of the soil have included the proportion of calcium carbonate the ratio between (44.00-48.00%) has been observed increasing amounts of calcium carbonate in surface models. The pH where results indicate that pH values were close to study models ranged between (6.88-7.42) these values generally within the normal range for the measured pH values of the Iraqi soil. The amount of gypsum ranged betwe
... Show MoreThe researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
... Show MoreIn this paper, the Mars orbital elements were calculated. These orbital elements—the major axis, the inclination (i), the longitude of the ascending node (W), the argument of the perigee (w), and the eccentricity (e)—are essential to knowing the size and shape of Mars' orbit. The quick basic program was used to calculate the orbital elements and distance of Mars from the Earth from 25/5/1950 over 10000 days. These were calculated using the empirical formula of Meeus, which depended on the Julian date, which slightly changed for 10000 days; Kepler's equation was solved to find Mars' position and its distance from the Sun. The ecliptic and equatorial coordinates of Mars were calculated. The distance between Mars and the center of the E
... Show MoreThe research discusses the need to find the innovative structures and methodologies for developing Human Capital (HC) in Iraqi Universities. One of the most important of these structures is Communities of Practice (CoPs) which contributes to develop HC by using learning, teaching and training through the conversion speed of knowledge and creativity into practice. This research has been used the comparative approach through employing the methodology of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using (Excel 2010 - Solver) as a field evidence to prove the role of CoPs in developing HC. In light of the given information, a researcher adopted on an archived preliminary data about (23) colleges at Mosul University as a deliberate sample for t
... Show MoreAmidst the changes resulting from the subject matter of expression in art. The necessity of searching for the expressive features of thought that leaves different imprints with aesthetic features and values which called for re-modifying the expressive vision of contemporary drawings. Therefore, this research has been concerned with the study of (abstract expressive features in the drawings of (Serwan Baran) and (Eric Barto) - a comparative study), and the research includes four chapters. The first chapter is devoted to explaining the research problem, its importance, need, purpose, and limits, then determining the most important terms mentioned in it. Where the research problem dealt with the subject of abstract expressive feature
... Show MoreIn the current work various types of epoxy composites were added to concrete to enhance its effectiveness as a gamma- ray shield. Four epoxy samples of (E/clay/B4C) S1, (E/Mag/B4C) S2, (EPIL) S3 and (Ep) S4 were used in a comparative study of gamma radiation attenuation properties of these shields that calculating using Mont Carlo code (MCNP-5). Adopting Win X-com software and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), µ/ρ revealed great compliance with MCNP-5. By applying (µ/ρ) output for gamma at different energies, HVL, TVL and MFP have been also estimated. ANN technique was simulated to estimate (µ/ρ) and dose rates. According to the results, µ/ρ of all epoxy samples scored higher than standard concrete. Both S2 and S3 samples having h
... Show MoreAn idiom is a group of words whose meaning put together is different from the meaning of
individual words. English is a rich language when it comes to idioms, they represent variety. For
foreign learners, idioms are problematic because even if they know the meaning of individual
words that compose an idiom the meaning of it might be something completely different.
The present study investigates Iraqi third year college students’ recognition of idioms. To
achieve this, the researchers have conducted a test which comprises three questions. Certain
conclusions are reached here along with some suggestions and recommendations.
Self-driving automobiles are prominent in science and technology, which affect social and economic development. Deep learning (DL) is the most common area of study in artificial intelligence (AI). In recent years, deep learning-based solutions have been presented in the field of self-driving cars and have achieved outstanding results. Different studies investigated a variety of significant technologies for autonomous vehicles, including car navigation systems, path planning, environmental perception, as well as car control. End-to-end learning control directly converts sensory data into control commands in autonomous driving. This research aims to identify the most accurate pre-trained Deep Neural Network (DNN) for predicting the steerin
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