The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The cheif aim of the present investigation is to develop Leslie Gower type three species food chain model with prey refuge. The intra-specific competition among the predators is considered in the proposed model. Besides the logistic growth rate for the prey species, Sokol Howell functional response for predation is chosen for our model formulation. The behaviour of the model system thoroughly analyses near the biologically significant equilibria. The linear stability analysis of the equilibria is carried out in order to examine the response of the system. The present model system experiences Hopf bifurcation depending on the choice of suitable model parameters. Extensive numerical simulation reveals the validity of the proposed model.
Endometriosis is a painful disease that affects around 5% of women of reproductive age. In endometriosis, ectopic endometrial cells or seeded endometrial debris grow in abnormal locations including the peritoneal cavity. Common manifestations of endometriosis include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain and often infertility and symptomatic relief or surgical removal are mainstays of treatment. Endometriosis both promotes and responds to estrogen imbalance, leading to intestinal bacterial estrobolome dysregulation and a subsequent induction of inflammation.
In the current study, we investigated the linkage be
A harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.
The basic analytical formula for particle-hole state densities is derived based on the non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) for the single-particle level density (s.p.l.d.) dependence on particle excitation energy u. Two methods are illustrated in this work, the first depends on Taylor series expansion of the s.p.l.d. about u, while the second uses direct analytical derivation of the state density formula. This treatment is applied for a system composing from one kind of fermions and for uncorrected physical system. The important corrections due to Pauli blocking was added to the present formula. Analytical comparisons with the standard formulae for ESM are made and it is shown that the solution reduces to earlier formulae providing m
... Show MoreIn this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .
The objective of this article is to delve into the intricate dynamics of marriage relationships, exploring the impact of emotions such as fear, love, financial considerations and likability. In our investigation, we adopt a perspective that acknowledges the nonlinear nature of interactions among individuals. Diverging from certain prior studies, we propose that the fear element within the context of marriage is not a singular, isolated factor but rather a manifestation resulting from the amalgamation of numerous social issues. This, in turn, contributes to the emergence of strained and unsuccessful relationships. Unlike conventional approaches, we extensively examine the conditions essential for the existence of all socially signifi
... Show MoreIt is recognized that organisms live and interact in groups, exposing them to various elements like disease, fear, hunting cooperation, and others. As a result, in this paper, we adopted the construction of a mathematical model that describes the interaction of the prey with the predator when there is an infectious disease, as well as the predator community's characteristic of cooperation in hunting, which generates great fear in the prey community. Furthermore, the presence of an incubation period for the disease provides a delay in disease transmission from diseased predators to healthy predators. This research aims to examine the proposed mathematical model's solution behavior to better understand these elements' impact on an eco-epidemi
... Show MoreThe possibility of using activated carbon developed from date palm seeds wastes as a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) to remove copper from polluted shallow groundwater was investigated. The activated carbon has been developed from date palm seeds by dehydrating methods using concentrated sulfuric acid. Batch tests were performed to characterize the equilibrium sorption properties of new activated carbon in copper-containing aqueous solutions, while the sandy soil (aquifer) was assumed to be inert. Under the studied conditions, the Langmuir isotherm model gives a better fit for the sorption data of copper by activated carbon than other models. At a pilot scale, One-dimensional column experiments were performed, and an integrated model ba
... Show MoreThe twelve samples of agricultural soils from four regions in Al-Najaf governorate with sampling plant with soil. Physical properties of the soil where studied, such as electrical conductivity ranged from (136.33-1070.00)μS/cm-3, and moisture which ranged between the values (0.39-36.48)%. The chemical analysis of the soil have included the proportion of calcium carbonate the ratio between (44.00-48.00%) has been observed increasing amounts of calcium carbonate in surface models. The pH where results indicate that pH values were close to study models ranged between (6.88-7.42) these values generally within the normal range for the measured pH values of the Iraqi soil. The amount of gypsum ranged betwe
... Show MoreIs the subject of the financial structure of the most important topics for which she received the interests of scientific research in the field of financial management , as it emerged several theories about choosing a financial structure appropriate for the facility and behavior change funding them , and in spite of that there is no agreement on a specific theory answer various questions in this regard , and a special issue of the financial structure optimization.
The objective of the research was to identify the most important theories of the structure of modern financial theory has been to focus on the capture of financial firms in two different stages of their life cycle , so-called growth and ma
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