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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
FIRST RECORD OF BOSTRICHUS CAPUCINUS ( L.) ( COLEOPTERA: BOSTRICHIDAE ) IN IRAQ
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   The species Bostrichus capucinus  (L.) (Coleoptera:Bostrichidae) was reported as a new record for Iraq. Diagnostic characters and some information are given .

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The impact of Arab civilization   On the first century AH
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The influx of Arab Qahtani and Nizari tribes continued to the countries of Baluchistan and the Levant in pre-Islamic times until the Levant became open to the Arab-Islamic tide during the first century AH. The Islamic Orient until the early Islamic Arab Army reached the western borders of China. What we will see in the folds of the search.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
School Refusal Behavior of Primary First Class Pupils in Baghdad
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Objectives: The study aims to assess the school refusal behavior of first class pupils at primary schools and identifying the relationship between the school refusal behavior and some of socio-demographic characteristics for the pupils.

Methodology:  A descriptive-analytic study was initiated from November 1st, 2012 to April 1st, 2013. A random sample of 411 students is selected from a probability stratified sample of 17 primary schools for both sexes in 4 sectors in Baghdad Al-Rasafa and Al-Karkh districts which are selected randomly from first class of primary school. A Self administrative questionnaire (Parents' Version) which constructed by the rese

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Publication Date
Wed May 27 2020
Journal Name
Research Gate
Information Booklet COVID-19 Graphs For Iraq First 3 Months
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This booklet contains the basic data and graphs forCOVID-19 in Iraq during the first three months of thepandemic ( 24 February to 19 May - 2020 ) , It isperformed to help researchers regarding this health problem (PDF) Information Booklet COVID-19 Graphs For Iraq First 3 Months. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341655944_Information_Booklet_COVID-19_Graphs_For_Iraq_First_3_Months#fullTextFileContent [accessed Oct 26 2024].

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Craniofacial Surgery
The First Patient Report of Tongue Abscess Among Iraqi Population
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Publication Date
Fri Feb 23 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Hypolipidemic Effect of Caffeic Acid Isolated From Arctium Lappa Cultivated In Iraq, in Hyperlipidemic Rat Model
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The goal of the extant revision was to explore the influence of  caffeic acid (CA) extracted from Arctium lappa L. on lipid profile and histology of aorta  in rats .  Analytical study demonstrated a high percentage of both chlorogenic and caffeic acid in the 80 % methanol extract of the aerial parts (leaves and stems) of Arctium lappa L. from the family Asteraceace.  Hypolipidemic activity of caffeic acid was studied against cholesterol induced hypercholesterolemia in Wistar albino rats for thirty days. Rats were separated into normal group (A), hypercholesterolemic positive controller group (B). While, the rest three groups (C, D and E) attended as hypercholesterol

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
The 53rd U.s. Rock Mechanics/geomechanics Symposium
Using an analytical model to predict collapse volume during drilling: A case study from southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
American Rock Mechanics Association
Using an Analytical Model to Predict Collapse Volume During Drilling: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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Zubair Formation is one of the richest petroleum systems in Southern Iraq. This formation is composed mainly of sandstones interbedded with shale sequences, with minor streaks of limestone and siltstone. Borehole collapse is one of the most critical challenges that continuously appear in drilling and production operations. Problems associated with borehole collapse, such as tight hole while tripping, stuck pipe and logging tools, hole enlargement, poor log quality, and poor primary cement jobs, are the cause of the majority of the nonproductive time (NPT) in the Zubair reservoir developments. Several studies released models predicting the onset of borehole collapse and the amount of enlargement of the wellbore cross-section. However, assump

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
History Matching of Reservoir Simulation Model: a Case Study from the Mishrif Reservoir, Buzurgan Oilfield, Iraq
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In petroleum reservoir engineering, history matching refers to the calibration process in which a reservoir simulation model is validated through matching simulation outputs with the measurement of observed data. A traditional history matching technique is performed manually by engineering in which the most uncertain observed parameters are changed until a satisfactory match is obtained between the generated model and historical information. This study focuses on step by step and trial and error history matching of the Mishrif reservoir to constrain the appropriate simulated model. Up to 1 January 2021, Buzurgan Oilfield, which has eighty-five producers and sixteen injectors and has been under production for 45 years when it started

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Predicting changes on budget expenditures using Markov chains with practical application
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The researchers have a special interest in studying  Markov  chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable  samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one  of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying  Maximum likelihood estimation  and Ordinary least squares  methods resulting

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