The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation
... Show MoreModern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan
... Show MoreProblem of water scarcity is becoming common in many parts of the world. Thus to overcome this problem proper management of water and an efficient irrigation systems are needed. Irrigation with buried vertical ceramic pipe is known as a very effective in management of irrigation water. The two- dimensional transient flow of water from a buried vertical ceramic pipe through homogenous porous media is simulated numerically using the software HYDRUS/2D to predict empirical formulas that describe the predicted results accurately. Different values of pipe lengths and hydraulic conductivity were selected. In addition, different values of initial volumetric soil water content were assumed in this simulation a
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The decision maker needs to understand the strategic environment to be addressed through different means and methods. It is obvious that there is a difference between the three strategic environments (conflict environment, peace environment, post- peace environment) in terms of inputs and strategies to deal with each one of them. There is an urgent need to understand each pattern separately, analyze its inputs, and identify the factors and variables that affect the continuity of this situation (conflict, peace, post-peace). It is not appropriate to identify treatment without diagnosis of the condition, so it is very important to understand the type of strategic environment to be dealt with it.
... Show MoreNew series of metal ions complexes have been prepared from the new ligand [4-Amino-N-(5-methyl-isaxazol-3-yl)-benzenesulfonamide] derived from Sulfamethoxazole and 3-aminophenol. Accordingly, mono-nuclear Mn(II), Fe(III), Co (II), and Rh(III) complexes were prepared by the reaction of previous ligand with MnCl2.4H2O, CoCl2.6H2O, FeCl3.6H2O and RhCl3H2O, respectively. The compounds have been characterized by Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR), ultraviolet–visible (UV–vis), mass, 1H-, and 13C-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra and thermo gravimetric analysis (TGA& DSC) curve, Bohr magnetic (B.M.), elemental microanal
... Show MoreIn this paper the experimentally obtained conditions for the fusion splicing with photonic crystal fibers (PCF) having large mode areas were reported. The physical mechanism of the splice loss and the microhole collapse property of photonic crystal fiber (PCF) were studied. By controlling the arc-power and the arc-time of a conventional electric arc fusion splicer (FSM-60S), the minimum loss of splicing for fusion two conventional single mode fibers (SMF-28) was (0.00dB), which has similar mode field diameter. For splicing PCF (LMA-10) with a conventional single mode fiber (SMF-28), the loss was increased due to the mode field mismatch.
The study of biopolymers and their derivative materials had received a considerable degree of attention from researchers in the preparation of novel material. Biopolymers and their derivatives have a wide range of applications as a result of their bio-compatibility, bio-degradability and non-toxicity. In this paper, chitosan reacted with different aldehydes(2,4 –dichloro- benzaldehyde or 2-methyl benzaldehyde), different ketones (4-bromoacetophenone or 3-aminoacetophenone) to produce chitosan schiff base (1-4) . Chitosan schiff base (1-4) reacted with glutaric acid or adipic acid in acidic media in distilled water according to the steps of Fischer and Speier to produce compounds (5-12)
... Show MoreThis paper highlights the main features of conjunctive adverbials and their occurrence in English academic prose. It accounts for the semantic roles of conjunctive adverbials, forms in which they are used, their positions within a sentence, and their frequency of occurrence in different registers with special reference to academic prose. It also tries to investigate possible differences in men's and women's use of conjunctive adverbials.
Keyword: conjunctive adverbials, linking adverbials, stance adverbials, circumstance adverbials, academic prose
Abstract
This research aims to assess the practice of physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities and its challenges during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from their families' point of view. The research sample consisted of (87) individuals from families with intellectual disabilities in the Makkah region. The sample was selected by the simple random method where the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. A questionnaire of (32) items was used as the research tool to collect data. The findings of the study showed that the assessment level of practicing physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities was low. The public facilities dimension ranked first with a moder
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