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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
THE DYNAMICS OF A STAGE-STRUCTURE PREY-PREDATOR MODEL WITH HUNTING COOPERATION AND ANTI-PREDATOR BEHAVIOR
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The mathematical construction of an ecological model with a prey-predator relationship was done. It presumed that the prey consisted of a stage structure of juveniles and adults. While the adult prey species had the power to fight off the predator, the predator, and juvenile prey worked together to hunt them. Additionally, the effect of the harvest was considered on the prey. All the solution’s properties were discussed. All potential equilibrium points' local stability was tested. The prerequisites for persistence were established. Global stability was investigated using Lyapunov methods. It was found that the system underwent a saddle-node bifurcation near the coexistence equilibrium point while exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In vivo evaluation the efficiency of nitazoxanide with cationic Gemini surfactant on Cryptosporidiosis
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Infection with cryptosporidiosis endangers the lives of many people with immunodeficiency, especially HIV patients. Nitazoxanide is one of the main therapeutic drugs used to treat cryptosporidiosis. However, it is poorly soluble in water, which restricts its usefulness and efficacy in immunocompromised patients. Surfactants have an amphiphilic character which indicates their ability to improve the water solubility of the hydrophobic drugs. Our research concerns the synthesis of new cationic Gemini surfactants that have the ability to improve the solubility of the drug Nanazoxide. So, we synthesized cationic Gemini surfactants. N1,N1,N3,N3-tetramethyl-N1,N3-bis(2-octadecanamidoethyl)propane-1,3-diaminium bromide (CGSPS18) and 2,2‘-(etha

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation of serum levels of Proinflammatory Cytokines IL-8, IL-17, and IL-22 in Helicobacter pylori infection and their association with the degree of gastritis histopathology in a sample of Iraqi patients
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Gastritis can be defined as histological inflammation of the gastric mucosa. It can be classified according to the time course of the disease as acute or chronic, histological findings, anatomic location, and pathological mechanisms. The objective of this study was to evaluation of serum levels of the proinflammatory cytokines IL-8, IL-17 and IL-22 in Helicobacter pylori infection and their association with the degree of gastritis histopathology in a sample of Iraqi patients. The case-control prospective study consists of 60 patients who attended the Gastrointestinal Tract Center at Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital during the period from December 2019 to April 2020. In addition, the control group included 60 apparently healthy individuals. Bio

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Bounded Solutions of the Second Order Differential Equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t)
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In this paper we prove the boundedness of the solutions and their derivatives of the second order ordinary differential equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t), under certain conditions on f,g and u. Our results are generalization of those given in [1].

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of effect of non-central obscuration to obscured circular aperture on third order spherical aberration
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In this research we have been studied the 3rd order spherical aberration for an optical system consisted of obscured circular aperture with non central circular obscuration through the calculation of point spread function (P.S.F) in presence of the obscuration in the center and comparing the obtained results with that results of moving obscuration far away from the center, where the results showed significant improvement for(P.S.F) value. The study was done of different obscurities ratios in addition to the different 3rd order spherical aberration values (W40=0.25 ,0.5 ,0.75 ,1 ).

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Single-input Multiple-output Signals Third-order Active-R Filter for different Circuit Merit Factor (Q)
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Single-input Multiple-output Signals Third-order Active-R Filter for different Circuit Merit Factor Q Configuration is proposed. This paper discusses a new configuration to realize third-order low pass, band pass and high pass. The presented circuit uses Single-input Multiple-output signals, OP-AMP and passive components. This filter is useful for high frequency operation, monolithic IC implementation and it is easy to design .This circuit gives three filter functions low-pass, high-pass and band-pass. This filter circuit can be used for different merit factor (Q) with high pass band gain. This gives better stop-band attenuation and sharper cut-off at the edge of the pass-band. Thus the response shows wider pass-band. The Ideal value of thi

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
Gamipog: A deterministic genetic multi-parameter-order strategy for the generation of variabLE STRENGTH COVERING ARRAYS
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 25 2022
Journal Name
2022 Ieee 20th International Conference On Industrial Informatics (indin)
Robust Continuous Sliding Mode Controller for Uncertain Canonical Brunovsky Systems Using Reduced Order Extended State Observer
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A reduced-order extended state observer (RESO) based a continuous sliding mode control (SMC) is proposed in this paper for the tracking problem of high order Brunovsky systems with the existence of external perturbations and system uncertainties. For this purpose, a composite control is constituted by two consecutive steps. First, the reduced-order ESO (RESO) technique is designed to estimate unknown system states and total disturbance without estimating an available state. Second, the continuous SMC law is designed based on the estimations supplied by the RESO estimator in order to govern the nominal system part. More importantly, the robustness performance is well achieved by compensating not only the lumped disturbance, but also its esti

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2017
Journal Name
Arabian Journal For Science And Engineering
A New Method to Tune a Fractional-Order PID Controller for a Twin Rotor Aerodynamic System
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 30 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Environmental Analytical Chemistry
Integrated biomass algae @ cross-linked pyromellitic dianhydride chitosan biocomposite for methyl violet 2B adsorption: modelling and experiment design optimization
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A new adsorbent was developed by integrating algae biomass (AG) into a chitosan (CN) matrix, followed by structural enhancement via crosslinking with pyromellitic dianhydride (PMDA) through a hydrothermal synthesis approach. This process resulted in the formation of a robust AG@CN-PMDA composite with improved physicochemical characteristics suitable for advanced adsorption applications. The AG@CN-PMDA composite was evaluated for its efficiency in removal of the cationic dye methyl violet 2B (MV 2B) from aqueous solution. The adsorption process was refined through the Box-Behnken design (RSM-BBD), evaluating three essential parameters: adsorbent dosage (A: 0.02–0.1 g/100 mL), pH (B: 4–10), and time (C: 5–20 min). The ideal conditions f

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