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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Study of the Antimicrobial Activity of Modified Polyvinyl Alcohol Films Incorporated with Silver Nanoparticles
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       A new class of biologically active nanocomposites and modified polymers based on poly (vinyl alcohol) (PVA) with some organic compounds [II, IV, V and VI] were synthesized using silver nanoparticles (Ag-NPs). All compounds were synthesized using nucleophilic substitution interactions and characterized by FTIR, DSC and TGA. The biological activity of the modified polymers was evaluated against: gram (+) (staphylococcus aureus) and gram (-): (Es cherichia coli bacteria). Antimicrobial films are developed based on modified poly (vinyl alcohol) MPVA and Ag-NPs nanoparticles. The nanocomposites and modified polymers showed better antibacterial activities against Escherichia coli (Gram negative) than against Staphyloc

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Flow Injection Analysis with Turbidity Detection for the Quantitative Determination of Mebeverine Hydrochloride in Pharmaceutical Formulations
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The main objective of this paper is to develop and validate flow injection method, a precise, accurate, simple, economic, low cost and specific turbidimetric method for the quantitative determination of mebeverine hydrochloride (MbH) in pharmaceutical preparations.  A homemade NAG Dual & Solo (0-180º) analyser which contains two identical detections units (cell 1 and 2) was applied for turbidity measurements. The developed method was optimized for different chemical and physical parameters such as perception reagent concentrations, aqueous salts solutions, flow rate, the intensity of the sources light, sample volume, mixing coil and purge time. The correlation coefficients (r) of the developed method were 0.9980 and 0.9986 for cell

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Public Budget and the Roles of Legislative and Executive Power Regarding It with Reference to Iraq)2004-2011)
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The public budget is regarded a main tool for economic and social development. The preparation of the public budget constitute an important stream which enriches the developmental efforts and the definition of its priorities, therefore it is the focus point of many specializations. The public budget has numerous functions. It is a means to precise and to execute the political and economic goals of the executive authority, a mirror of the economic structure which reflects its strength and weakness points, specifies its revenues and others. Since the parliament is the voice of the society which expresses its interests, then, it must monitor the performance of the government so that the participation of the legislative authority in

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 03 2012
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Study of effect of non-central obscuration to obscured circular aperture on third order spherical aberration
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In this research we have been studied the 3rd order spherical aberration for an optical system consisted of obscured circular aperture with non central circular obscuration through the calculation of point spread function (P.S.F) in presence of the obscuration in the center and comparing the obtained results with that results of moving obscuration far away from the center, where the results showed significant improvement for(P.S.F) value. The study was done of different obscurities ratios in addition to the different 3rd order spherical aberration values (W40=0.25 ,0.5 ,0.75 ,1 ).

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 19 2017
Journal Name
Arabian Journal For Science And Engineering
A New Method to Tune a Fractional-Order PID Controller for a Twin Rotor Aerodynamic System
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Single-input Multiple-output Signals Third-order Active-R Filter for different Circuit Merit Factor (Q)
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Single-input Multiple-output Signals Third-order Active-R Filter for different Circuit Merit Factor Q Configuration is proposed. This paper discusses a new configuration to realize third-order low pass, band pass and high pass. The presented circuit uses Single-input Multiple-output signals, OP-AMP and passive components. This filter is useful for high frequency operation, monolithic IC implementation and it is easy to design .This circuit gives three filter functions low-pass, high-pass and band-pass. This filter circuit can be used for different merit factor (Q) with high pass band gain. This gives better stop-band attenuation and sharper cut-off at the edge of the pass-band. Thus the response shows wider pass-band. The Ideal value of thi

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 25 2022
Journal Name
2022 Ieee 20th International Conference On Industrial Informatics (indin)
Robust Continuous Sliding Mode Controller for Uncertain Canonical Brunovsky Systems Using Reduced Order Extended State Observer
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A reduced-order extended state observer (RESO) based a continuous sliding mode control (SMC) is proposed in this paper for the tracking problem of high order Brunovsky systems with the existence of external perturbations and system uncertainties. For this purpose, a composite control is constituted by two consecutive steps. First, the reduced-order ESO (RESO) technique is designed to estimate unknown system states and total disturbance without estimating an available state. Second, the continuous SMC law is designed based on the estimations supplied by the RESO estimator in order to govern the nominal system part. More importantly, the robustness performance is well achieved by compensating not only the lumped disturbance, but also its esti

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 06 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Bounded Solutions of the Second Order Differential Equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t)
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In this paper we prove the boundedness of the solutions and their derivatives of the second order ordinary differential equation x ?+f(x) x ?+g(x)=u(t), under certain conditions on f,g and u. Our results are generalization of those given in [1].

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology
Gamipog: A deterministic genetic multi-parameter-order strategy for the generation of variabLE STRENGTH COVERING ARRAYS
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Removal of Congo Red Dye From Aqueous Solution Using Eco-Friendly Adsorbent of Nanosilica
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            The development of a new, cheap, efficient, and ecofriendly adsorbents has become an important demand for the treatment of waste water, so nano silica is considered a good choice. A sample of nanosilica (NS) was prepared from sodium silicate as precursor and the nonionic surfactant Tween 20 as a template. The prepared sample was characterized using various characterization techniques such as FT-IR, AFM, SEM and EDX analysis. The spectrum of FTIR confirms the presence of silica in the sample, while SEM analysis of sample shows nanostructures with pore ranging (2-100nm).The adsorptive properties of this sample were studied by removing Congo red dye (CR) from aqueous solution. Batch experimental methods were carried o

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