The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The problems of modeling the signal and dispersion properties of a second order recursive section in the integer parameter space are considered. The formulation and solution of the section synthesis problem by selective and dispersive criteria using the methods of integer nonlinear mathematical programming are given. The availability of obtaining both positive and negative frequency dispersion of a signal in a recursive section, as well as the possibility of minimizing dispersion distortions in the system, is shown.
In this paper,the homtopy perturbation method (HPM) was applied to obtain the approximate solutions of the fractional order integro-differential equations . The fractional order derivatives and fractional order integral are described in the Caputo and Riemann-Liouville sense respectively. We can easily obtain the solution from convergent the infinite series of HPM . A theorem for convergence and error estimates of the HPM for solving fractional order integro-differential equations was given. Moreover, numerical results show that our theoretical analysis are accurate and the HPM can be considered as a powerful method for solving fractional order integro-diffrential equations.
... Show MoreThe study aims to identify the third instar larvae of fly species (Order : Diptera) feeding on carcasses (Fishes and Rabbits). Two families (Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae), were recorded with highest rate in Calliphoridae species. The following species had been registered in accordance with their prevalence respectively; Calliphora vicina Rob.-Desvoidy, Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedmann), Chrysomy megacephala (Fabricius), Sarcophaga sp. and Lucilia sericata (Meigen). The highest rate has been registered Calliphora vicina during February, November, December and January at rate 100%, the larvae of this fly have not been observed during July, August, September and October. The highest rate of Ch
... Show MoreThis study aims to know the relationship between the birth order and lifestyles among a sample of adolescent students. The sample of the study consisted of (200) students selected from the governmental schools in the Directorate of Education of Qabatiya, in the second semester of the academic year 2020/2021. The results of the study have revealed that the most common lifestyles among the sample of the study are represented by: (the belonging) style, (the submissive) style, (the avenger) style, (the pampered) style, respectively. The study has also found that there are statistically significant differences in the lifestyles of: (the victim, the domineering, the avenger, and the harmful) which are ascribed to the gender variable. Mor
... Show MoreIn the present work a theoretical analysis depending on the new higher order . element in shear deformation theory for simply supported cross-ply laminated plate is developed. The new displacement field of the middle surface expanded as a combination of exponential and trigonometric function of thickness coordinate with the transverse displacement taken to be constant through the thickness. The governing equations are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution method to obtain the deflection and stresses under uniform sinusoidal load. The effect of many design parameters such as number of laminates, aspect ratio and thickness ratio on static behavior of the laminated composite plate has been studied. The
... Show MoreMany reasons combined behind the Standing of U.S. against Britain in its aggression against Egypt in 1956; the consensus of world opinion on the need to stop the aggression and the fear of the Soviet military intervention which mean a new world war.
United States desired to weaken British influences in the region in general to get new oil gains in the Arabian Gulf and Egypt at the expense of Britain. The exiting of Britain from the area served U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East in general and Egypt in particular to keep the flow of oil for U.S advantage.
The United States wanted to keep its image in the region to apply its future political projects including Eisenhower Project, which intended to take the position of Britis
In this study, sawdust as a cheap method and abundant raw material was utilized to produce active carbon (SDAC). Physiochemical activation was utilized where potassium hydroxide used as a chemical activating agent and carbon dioxide was used as a physical activating agent. Taguchi method of experimental design was used to find the optimum conditions of SDAC production. The produced SDAC was characterized using SEM to investigate surface morphology and BET to estimate the specific surface area. SDAC was used in aqueous lead ions adsorption. Adsorption process was modeled statistically and represented by an empirical model. The highest specific surface area of SDAC was 688.3 m2/gm. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms were used to
... Show MoreThe influence of Cr3+ doping on the ground state properties of SrTiO 3 perovskite was evaluated using GGA-PBE approximation. Computational modeling results infered an agreement with the previously published literature. The modification of electronic structure and optical properties due to Cr3+ introducing into SrTiO 3 were investigated. Structural parameters assumed that Cr3+ doping alters the electronic structures of SrTiO 3 by shifting the conduction band through lower energies for the Sr and Ti sites. Besides, results showed that the band gap was reduced by approximately 50% when presenting one Cr3+ atom into the SrTiO 3 system and particularly positioned at Sr sites. Interestingly, substituting Ti site by Cr3+ led to eliminating the ban
... Show MoreBackground: Transplantation has revolutionized
treatment of end- stage renal disease (ESRD) by proving
more cost effective than hemodialysis, with a lower
morbidity and improved quality of life.
Objective: To evaluate the development of these
complications in the first month postoperatively and
correlate their development to the type of donation
whether related or unrelated.
Methods: Fifty (50) patients aged (15-62) years, with a
mean age (34.46 ± 12.4 SD) years with (ESRD), who
underwent renal transplantation from September 2000 to
October 2002, were followed-up for one month
postoperatively clinically and by assessment of renal
function tests, sonographic and Doppler examinations.
Ureteral obs