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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Sat May 28 2022
Journal Name
Abstract And Applied Analysis
Discretization Fractional-Order Biological Model with Optimal Harvesting
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In this paper, a discretization of a three-dimensional fractional-order prey-predator model has been investigated with Holling type III functional response. All its fixed points are determined; also, their local stability is investigated. We extend the discretized system to an optimal control problem to get the optimal harvesting amount. For this, the discrete-time Pontryagin’s maximum principle is used. Finally, numerical simulation results are given to confirm the theoretical outputs as well as to solve the optimality problem.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Weighted Least Squares Estimation of the Effect of Wastewater Pollution of Tigris River / Wasit Governorate
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Abstract

The analysis of Least Squares: LS is often unsuccessful in the case of outliers ​​in the studied phenomena. OLS will lose their properties and then lose the property of Beast Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE), because of the Outliers have a bad effect on the phenomenon. To address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so that they are not easily affected by outliers. These methods are characterized by robustness or (resistance). The Least Trimmed Squares: LTS method was therefore a good alternative to achieving more feasible results and optimization. However, it is possible to assume weights that take into consideration the location of the outliers ​​in the data and det

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
First Order Nonlinear Neutral Delay Differential Equations
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The author obtain results on the asymptotic behavior of the nonoscillatory solutions of first order nonlinear neutral differential equations. Keywords. Neutral differential equations, Oscillatory and Nonoscillatory solutions.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Computer Science And Mathematics
Some Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model by Simulation
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This paper shews how to estimate the parameter of generalized exponential Rayleigh (GER) distribution by three estimation methods. The first one is maximum likelihood estimator method the second one is moment employing estimation method (MEM), the third one is rank set sampling estimator method (RSSEM)The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. Finally using the mean squares error criterion to compare between these estimation methods to find which of these methods are best to the others

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Oscillations of First Order Linear Delay Differential Equations with positive and negative coefficients
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Oscillation criteria are obtained for all solutions of the first-order linear delay differential equations with positive and negative coefficients where we established some sufficient conditions so that every solution of (1.1) oscillate. This paper generalized the results in [11]. Some examples are considered to illustrate our main results.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Engineering Research And Advanced Technology
The Use of First Order Polynomial with Double Scalar Quantization for Image Compression
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Estimating the Parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh Distribution for Progressively Censoring Data with S- Function about COVID-19
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The two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Comparative Study of a Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor and Bio-shaft Technology for a Wastewater Treatment Process: A review
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In addition to the primary treatment, biological treatment is used to reduce inorganic and organic components in the wastewater. The separation of biomass from treated wastewater is usually important to meet the effluent disposal requirements, so the MBBR system has been one of the most important modern technologies that use plastic tankers to transport biomass with wastewater, which works in pure biofilm, at low concentrations of suspended solids. However, biological treatment has been developed using the active sludge mixing process with MBBR. Turbo4bio was established as a sustainable and cost-effective solution for wastewater treatment plants in the early 1990s and ran on minimal sludge, and is easy to maintain. This

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Methods For Estimating The Gamma Regression With Practical Application
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In this paper, we will illustrate a gamma regression model assuming that the dependent variable (Y) is a gamma distribution and that it's mean ( ) is related through a linear predictor with link function which is identity link function g(μ) = μ. It also contains the shape parameter which is not constant and depends on the linear predictor and with link function which is the log link and we will estimate the parameters of gamma regression by using two estimation methods which are The Maximum Likelihood and the Bayesian and a comparison between these methods by using the standard comparison of average squares of error (MSE), where the two methods were applied to real da

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