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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 06 2011
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Effect of essential oil extracted from yellow peel of Citrus aurantium L. on growth of some fungi
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جريت دراسة مختبرية لمعرفة تأثير الزيت الطيار لقشور ثمار نبات النارنج الصفرC. aurantium تجاه النمو السطحي للفطريات Penicillium expansum، Aspergillus flavus و Fusarium oxysporum ، أظهرت نتائج الفعالية التثبيطية للزيت الطيار تأثيراً معنويا متفاوتاً في الفطريات المشمولة بالدراسة، إذ كان الزيت الطيار أكثر تأثيرأَ في الفطر P. expansum تلاه الفطر A. flavus ،في حين كان الفطر oxysporum F.أقل حساسية تجاه الزيت الطيار. بصورة عامة اظهر الزيت الطيار تأثيرا تثبيطيا

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2023
Journal Name
Bionatura
Study the effect of essential oils of some plants in protection from Cowpea beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus in laboratory
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The experiments were conducted in laboratory conditions of a temperature of 25± 2C and relative moisture of 40± 5 % to evaluate the effectiveness of the cinnamon, lavender and clove essential oils on some biological life aspects of cowpea beetle, C. maculates. Results of the obligative experiment for the effect of the oils on insect adult killing showed that the concentration of 5% caused a mortality percentage averaged 13.33% of the insect males. The mortality percentage of the insect females was 11.3% for the cinnamon and lavender oils. The lavender oil had the lowest effect on adult killing, not exceeding 0. For the effect of the oils on egg laying, clove oil affected the number of eggs highly at the concentration of 5%, result

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect Study the of Acute toxoplasmosis on Some Blood and Serum Parameters in Pregnant Women in Baghdad City
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In this study the rate of infection in acute and chronic Toxoplasma gondii parasite that causes toxoplasmosis was determined. This study was Included 120 blood samples that collected from pregnant women revisions to some clinics and laboratories in Baghdad civil as well as 10 blood samples from non-infected women as a control group. All blood samples were collected in the first three months of the pregnancy period for detection toxoplasmosis by using serological tests of test kit ( Toxo , IgG.,Toxo , IgM ). To detect antibodies specialized type of IgG &IgM in acute and the chronic infection by Electro Clia manner using a Roche Cobas e411. The results showed that the total infection rate was (55.83)%, the rate of infection in acu

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Studying Some Technical Indicators of the Local Manufactured Machine and Its Effect on the Wheat Crop “Tamuz cultivar”
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Abstract<p>The effect of compound machine on wheat "Tamuz cultivar" was studied based on some technical indicators which were tested under three practical speed (PS) of 2.015, 3.143, and 4.216 km.hr-1 and three tillage depth (TD) of 11, 13, and 15cm. The split-split plot arrangement in RCBD with three replications was used. The results showed that the PS of 2.015km.hr-1 was major best than other two speed in all studied conditions, physical properties (SBD and TSP), mechanical parameters (FD, (DP and LAS), and yield and growth parameters (PVI, BY and HI). The TD of 11cm was major effect to the other two levels TD of 13 and TD of 15cm in all studied conditions. All interactions were significant, </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 05 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The use of Some Aliphatic Halorgano antimony Compounds as combustion Retarding agents of Unsaturated Polyester and Epoxy Resins
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Four antimony compounds were used in this inves as additives to retard combustion of unsaturated polyester and epoxy resins, namely: 1. Tetraethyl ammonium tribromoethylantimonates (additive I). 2. Tetraethyl ammonium chlorodibromoethylantimonates (additive II). 3. Tetraethyl ammonium trichloroethylantimonates (additive III). 4. Tetraethyl ammonium bromodichloroethylantimonates (additive IV). The effects of these additives on flammability of unsaturated polyester and epoxy resins have been studied by using sheets of the resins with weight percentages of (0.5,1.0,1.5,2.0,2.5&3.0%) of the additives in dimensions of (150 X150X3)mm .Three standard test methods were used to measure the flame retardation which are: (ASTM:D -2863), (ASTM:D-635

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Accumulation, Bioavailability, and Health Risk of Heavy Metals in Some Plants Obtained from Abu-Ghraib Land, Baghdad, Iraq
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The study of the distribution of major oxides and heavy metals in some plants collecting and analyzing eighteen plant samples of vegetables including carrot, onion, eggplant, cucumber, and okra obtained from Abu Ghraib land located about 20 km west of Baghdad, Iraq. Eighteen plant samples of vegetables,.Heavy metals can have a severe impact if released into the environment, even in trace quantities. These can enter the food chain from aquatic and agricultural ecosystems and indirectly threaten human health.. Trace elements and oxides of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Se, Th, U, V, and Zn were measured in plant samples using an X-Ray Fluorescence Instrument (XRF). TEs analyses of vegetables were performed in the Iraqi German Lab

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
Studying some of mechanical properties (tensile, impact, hardness) and thermal conductivity of polymer blend reinforce by magnesium oxide
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Semigroup ideal in Prime Near-Rings with Derivations
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In this paper we generalize some of the results due to Bell and Mason on a near-ring N admitting a derivation D , and we will show that the body of evidence on prime near-rings with derivations have the behavior of the ring. Our purpose in this work is to explore further this ring like behavior. Also, we show that under appropriate additional hypothesis a near-ring must be a commutative ring.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Tympanostomy Tube Complication in Otitis Media with Effusion
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Background: Otitis media with effusion is characterized by accumulation of fluid in the middle ear in absence of acute inflammation and  it is the most common cause of  acquired hearing loss in children, and may  negatively affect language development failure of medical treatment of middle ear effusion frequently require myringotomy and tympanostomy tube insertion.

Objectives: To determine tympanostomy tube complications of tube in children with chronic otitis media with effusion who were treated with Shah Grommet tube insertion.

Methods: The Medical records of 162 ears of 87 children (52 male and 35 female) were reviewed respectively, the patients ages wer

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Characteristic of Absorption with Reaction in Packed Column
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