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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat May 02 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
MEASUREMENT OF ASBESTOS FIBERS CONCENTRATIONS IN SOME DENSE AREAS IN BAGHDAD, IRAQ, IN WINTER 2020
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Asbestos is a hazard pollutant to human health, exposure to asbestos cause serious health effects and wide range of asbestos-related diseases such as asbestosis, lung cancer and malignant mesothelioma and it has been classified as carcinogen by the World Health Organization WHO which cause a carcinogenic effects. Fibers of asbestos are mainly released from friction product in brakes and clutch linings and from reinforce agent in the asbestos cement industry. The aim of this was to evaluate the levels of asbestos fibers in surroundings air of some dense traffic points in Baghdad, through winter 2020. Materials and Methods: Samples of airs was carried out by directing air flow to a mixed cellulose ester membrane filter mounted on an open face

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Clinical significance of Osteoprotegerin, Vitamin D, Obestatin and some biochemical variables in Kidney failure Patients
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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is described as an abnormalities of renal function, existing for a long period of time. By reason of the early grades of Chronic kidney disease can be experiences no symptoms, its premature identification is strenuous. initial stage CRD can cause various complications, such as anemia, matabolyic disorders of bone mineral. The study was done to assess the effect the chronic renal disease stage on the Osteoprotegerin, 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D, Obestatin levels and some biochemical parameters in patients not undertaken dialysis therapy. In this case-control study fifty-five patients with Kidney failure and fourty healthy people were examined. Circulating concentrations of Osteoprotegerin, 1,25 dihydroxyvitamin D

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Rates of success and failure of some offensive skills composed of three youth basketball skills
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مستخلص البحث كان الهدف من البحث هو معرفة نسب نجاح وفشل بعض المهارات الهجومية المركبة من ثلاث مهارات بكرة السلة للشباب.، إذ لوحظ بأنه لا تكتمل عملية التقدم من خلال إتقان المهارات الأساسية الهجومية المفردة فقط وإنما في القدرة على الدقة والثبات في أداء الربط فيما بينها (التركيب)، وعكس ما تقدم يعد واحد من الأسباب التي تسبب ضعفاً في المستوى ومما يزيد من الأخطاء في الأداء تبعاً لذلك. وفي ضوء ما تقدم تم تصوير ست مباري

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Metal Complexes of Ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-chlorobenzamide]
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A new ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-chlorobenzamide] (CAD) was synthesized by reaction of 4-Chlorobenzoyl isothiocyanate with 3-amino acetophenone, The ligand was characterized by elemental micro analysis C.H.N. S., FT-IR, UV-Vis and 1H,13C- NMR spectra, some transition metals complexes of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption, From obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(CAD)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral

Publication Date
Wed Jan 26 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
EFFECT OF CONTINUOUS AND DISCONTINUOUS LEACHING OF CALCIUM AND MAGNESIUM RELEASE FROM SOME CALCAREOUS SOIL
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Separation and Determination of Some Organic Acids in Dry Calyces of Iraqi Hibiscus Sabdariffa Linn
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A new reversed phase- high performance liquid chromatographic (RP-HPLC) method with Ultraviolet-Visible spectrophotometry has been optimized and validated for the simultaneous extraction and determination of organic acids present in Iraqi calyces of Hibiscus Sabdraffia Linn. The method is based on using ultrasonic bath for extracting organic acids. Limit of detection in µg/ml of Formic acid, Acetic acid, Oxalic acid, Citric acid, Succinic acid, Tartaric acid, and Malic acid 126.8498×10-6, 113.6005×10-6, 97.0513×10-6, 49.7925×10-6, 84.0753×10-6, 92.6551×10-6, and 106.1633×10-6 ,respectively. The concentration of organic acids found in dry spacemen of calyces of Iraqi Hibiscus Sabdraffia Linn. under study: Formic acid, Acetic acid,

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Pyridine and Pyrimidine Derivatives and Studying Their Biological Activities
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Heterocyclic systems, which are essential in medicinal chemistry due to their promising cytotoxic activity, are one of the most important families of organic molecules found in nature or produced in the laboratory. As a result of coupling N-(4-nitrophenyl)-3-oxo-butanamide (3) using thiourea, indole-3-carboxaldehyde, or piperonal, the pyrimidine derivatives (5a and 5b) were produced. Furthermore, pyrimidine 9 was synthesized by reacting thiophene-2-carboxaldehyde with ethyl cyanoacetate and urea with potassium carbonate as a catalyst. The chalcones 11a and 11b were synthesized by reacting equal molar quantities of 1-naphthaldehy

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Response of Some Properties of (Al-Si-Mg) Alloy to Nano-Ceramic Materials’ Addition
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Al-Si alloys which are widely used in engineering applications due to their outstanding properties can be modified for more enhancements in their properties. Current work investigated the ability of these alloys to be modified by casting them through the addition of nanoparticles. So, Multi-wall carbon nanotubes (CNT) and titanium carbide ceramic particles (TIC) with size of (20 nm) were added with different amounts started from (0.5 up to 3%) weight  to cast alloy A356 that was considered to be the base metal matrix, then stirred with different speeds of (270, 800, 1500, 2150) rpm at 520 °C for one minute. The results showed change in microstructure’ shape of the casted alloys from the dendritic to spherical gra

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 13 2014
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF SPRAYING SOME PLANT EXTRACTIONS AND ANTI-OXIDANT ON GROWTH AND YIELD OF SUNFLOWER
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To investigate the effect of spraying some plant extraction and anti-oxidants on growth and yield of two cultivars of sunflower, a field experiment was conducted during fall season of 2009 and spring season of 2010 at the Experimental Farm, Department of Field Crop Science, College of Agriculture/ University of Baghdad. RCBD with three replications as factorial at two factors was used. First factor was cultivars Akmar and Shmoss, second was spraying with extraction of karkade at 25%, liquorices at 50%, vitamin C at concentration 1.5 mg.l-1 and nutrient which content 15 elements at concentration 15 % in addition to control treatment which sprayed with distilled water only. The result showed no significant differences between the two cultivar

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 13 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Daily Timing Variation on some Motor Abilities and Anaerobic Ability among Sabers
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