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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 23 2023
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Individual analysis of kinetic response variables according to the measurement of the H7 system for the best jumping players in the national basketball team 2021
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The skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Annals Of Tropical Medicine & Public Health
Newly developed method for determination of methyldopa drug using ammonium ceric (IV) nitrate by continuous flow injection analysis via homemade NAG-ADF-300-2 analyser
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A new, simple, sensitive and fast developed method was used for the determination of methyldopa in pure and pharmaceutical formulations by using continuous flow injection analysis. This method is based on formation a burgundy color complex between methyldopa andammonium ceric (IV) nitrate in aqueous medium using long distance chasing photometer NAG-ADF-300-2. The linear range for calibration graph was 0.05-8.3 mmol/L for cell A and 0.1-8.5 mmol/L for cell B, and LOD 952.8000 ng /200 µL for cell A and 3.3348 µg /200 µL for cell B respectively with correlation coefficient (r) 0.9994 for cell A and 0.9991 for cell B, RSD % was lower than 1 % for n=8. The results were compared with classical method UV-Spectrophotometric at λ max=280 n

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Health Education Program for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patient's Self-efficacy toward Managing Feet at Endocrinology and Diabetes Center in Al-Rusafa Sector
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Objective(s): to assess the effectiveness of educational program on improving diabetic foot self-efficacy concerning managing their feet. Methodology: A descriptive analytic (quasi – experimental) design study was carried out at Diabetic and Endocrinology Center in Baghdad- Rusafa Sector from 2nd of May 2017, to27th June 2018. Non-probability sample of (80) male and female diabetic patients were selected. The study instruments consisted of two major parts: first

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of e-learning on learning the skills of short Service and front-dimensional blow for badminton players under the age of 15 years.
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AO Dr. Ali Jihad, Journal of Physical Education, 2021

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 28 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Setting standards for the quality of the performance scale school Aariyadah from the viewpoint of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of Baghdad breeding
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To achieve excellence in the quality of performance in school sports administration, which has suffered a lot of problems and constraints on the administrative system, supervision and education level as well as the regulatory environment and available resources available and contribute to the provision of some processors and overcome difficulties to participate in the formation of the individual good of itself and society through sports activities. Hence the importance came this study to create a reference to the quality of the performance criteria school sports from the perspective of supervisors (specialists and technicians) in the districts of breeding Baghdad, to be of help to all those involved in school sports and maintaining an excep

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
The comparison of several methods for calculating the degree of heritability and calculating the number of genes in maize (Zea mays L.). I. Agronomic traits
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Abstract<p>The objective of present study was to compare of several methods for estimating the degree of heritability and calculating the number of genes using generation mean analysis of maize (<italic>Zea mays</italic>L.). The experiment was conducted at the field of Field Crop Dept. College of Agric / Univ. of Baghdad, for many seasons, spring and fall seasons 2009, 2010, spring 2011 and fall 2013.Six diverse inbred lines were crossed to produce F1,F2,BC1 and BC2 for four superior crosses.Broad-sense and narrow sense heritability estimates based on variance of different generations. The results showed that the four formulas used to estimate the heritability were different in estimating the values o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 12 2025
Journal Name
The Alarba'een Journal
Analyzing and tracking the data of the millions sized gatherings for the Arba'in visit and proposing alternative ways to relieve congestion using spatial analysis algorithms
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The city of Karbala is one of the most important holy places for visitors and pilgrims from the Islamic faith, especially through the Arabian visit, when crowds of millions gather to commemorate the martyrdom of Imam Hussein. Offering services and medical treatments during this time is very important, especially when the crowds head to their destination (the holy shrine of Imam Hussein (a.s)). In recent years, the Arba'in visit has witnessed an obvious growth in the number of participants. The biggest challenge is the health risks, and the preventive measures for both organizers and visitors. Researchers identified various challenges and factors to facilitating the Arba'in visit. The purpose of this research is to deal with the religious an

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Determining the Prevalence of Upper and Lower Urinary Tract Infections’ Pathogens and Their Antibiotic Susceptibility Profile for Adult Patients in Al-Diwaniya, Iraq (Conference Paper) #
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Until today, one of the leading predominant infections is Urinary tract infection (UTI). It exerts a huge burden on health systems worldwide each year. Treating UTIs empirically with antimicrobials improves morbidity rates. This study aims to assess the prevalence of UTI-associated bacteria in adult patients and to determine their antibiotic susceptibility profile. A retrospective study was conducted for adult outpatients who visited Al-Diwaniya tertiary hospitals from January 2020 till February 2022 to review their medical and lab records in addition to sociodemographic data. A total of 256 patients’ records were included of which 204 (79.7%) belong to females and 52 (20.3%) were males with an average age of 39.22±17.10 years. T

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De PsicologÍa Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte Vol. 18 No 1 Pp. 117-121
THE EFFECT OF SPECIAL EXERCISES ACCORDING TO THE DIFFERENTIATED TEACHING METHOD ON MENTAL MOTIVATION AND LEARNING THE SKILLS OF BASKETBALL AND SHOOTING FOR FEMALE STUDENTS
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Scopus (1)
Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Jan 07 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تعيين عنصر الزئبق السام بتراكيز نزرة في نماذج غذائية ومائية مختلفة باستخدام منظومة بخار الزئبق البارد المرتبطة مع جهاز الامتصاص الذري اللهبي
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الخلاصة

     يتضمن البحث تعيين عنصر الزئبق السام بتراكيزنزرة عالية الدقة (نانوغرام) باستخدام منظومة يخار الزئبق البارد لنماذج غذائية (لحوم حمراء ، لحوم بيضاء ) مختلفة ونماذج مائية (ماء النهر، مياه صناعية ، ماء الشرب) وربط المنظومة بتقنية الامتصاص الذري اللهبي.

     ان عنصر الزئبق من اشد العناصر سمية وان التراكيز المسموح بها عالميا لايتعدى جزء واحد

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