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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Biotechnology
Synergistic Effect of Conocarpus erectus Extract and some Antibiotics against Multi-Drug Resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa
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Over the past few decades, the health benefits are under threat as many commonly used antibiotics have become less and less effective against certain illnesses not only because many of them produce toxic reactions but also due to the emergence of drug-resistant bacteria. The clinical use of a combination of antibiotic therapy for Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections is probably more effective than monotherapy. The present study aims to estimate the antibacterial and antibiofilm activity of Conocarpus erectus leaves extracts against multi-drug resistant P. aeruginosa isolated from different hospitals in Baghdad city. One hundred fifty different clinical specimens were collected from patients from September 2021 to January 2022. All samples were

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 07 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Effect of Insecticide “Maxxthor” on Some Hematological and Oxidative Stress Parameters in Male Albino Rats
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The present study was designed to investigate the effect of different concentrations of Maxxthor on some hematological and oxidative stress parameters in male albino rats.Twenty male rats with age of 6-8 weeks and weight of 200-250gm were equally divided into four groups as follow:G1 treated with normal saline as control group,while G2,G3andG4groups were treated with(0.01,0.1,1)mg\kg body weight of Maxxthor respectively for 40 days.The following hematological parameters were measured: red blood cell(RBC),hemoglobin (Hb),white blood cell(WBC), platelets(PLT),malondialdehyde(MDA),glutathione(GSH),catalase and vitamin E. The hematological parameters results revealed highly significant(p<0.01)decreasein RBC and H,while a highly significant(p<0.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 16 2024
Journal Name
Jurnal Arjuna: Publikasi Iimu Pendidkan,bahasa Dan Matematika
Some Physical and Motor Abilities and Their Contribution to The Scoring Skill of Futsal Players
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The game of futsal requires physical and motor abilities in order to perform it, as these abilities play a fundamental role in making the player have a wonderful physical level and be able to implement the skill aspect of futsal football, especially the scoring skill, which is the subject of the study. The importance of the research lies in arriving at knowledge of the percentage The contribution of some physical and motor abilities to the performance of the scoring skill in indoor soccer, in order to reach final scientific results that serve researchers, coaches, and players alike. The research aims to identify the most important physical and motor abilities of young players in futsal football, and to identify the percentage of contributio

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 24 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis, Characterization and Thermal Study of Some Transition Metal Complexes Derived from Quinoxaline-2,3-Dione
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   The present paper describes the synthesis and structural studies of new transition metal complexes of cobalt(II), nickel(II), copper(II) and cadmium(II) with two bi dentate ligands derived from quinoxaline-2,3-dione. The two ligands were fully identified by elemental analyses, FT-IR, NMR and UV-Visible spectra. The metal complexes of  Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Cd(II) were isolated in the solid state after reactions of their metal chlorides with the ligands in 2:1 mole ratio. The isolated solid metal complexes were characterized with the help of elemental analyses, NMR, FT-IR and UV-Visible spectra. As well as the thermal stability of the coordinated quinoxaline polymers were tested by TG-DSC analysis and it is found th

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Phytochemical investigation of some chemical compounds present in vicia villosa l. Widely grown in Iraq
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Publication Date
Sat Nov 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Synthesis and Characterization of Some Oxazolidine and Thiazolidine Derivatives and Study of their Antioxidants Activity
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 In this work, the preparation of some new oxazolidine and thiazolidine derivatives has been conducted. This was done over two steps; the first step included the synthesis of Schiff bases A1-A5 in 72-88% yields by the condensation of isonicotinic acid hydrazide and aldehydes. The second step includes the cyclization of derivatives A1-A5 with glycolic acid and thioglycolic acid to obtain the desired products, oxazolidine derivatives B1-B5 (44-60% yields) and thiazolidine derivatives C1-C5 (41-61% yields), respectively. The structure of the prepared compounds was characterized using FT-IR, 1H NMR, and 13C NMR spectroscopy. Some of the produced compounds were tested for antioxidant properties.  

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 26 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
IMPACT OF Conocarpus erectus L. FERTILIZER, AND SOME MICRONUTRIENTS ON GROWTH AND PRODUCTION OF POTATO
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This study was aimed to determine the impact of Conocarpus erectus L. compost fertilizer, and some micronutrients on growth and production of potato. This research was conducted at one of the fields of the College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences - University of Baghdad. The experiment was implemented using factorial arrangement (4X3X3) within randomized complete block design with three replicates. Conocarpus fertilizer was represented the first factor with three levels (7.5, 15, 30 ton.ha-1), which symbolized (C2, C3, C4). Chemical fertilizer as recommended dose as a control, which symbolized (C1). The second factor was foliar spraying with three levels of iron (0, 100, 200 mg.L-1), which symbolized (F0, F1, F2). The third fact

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of annealed temperature on some structural, optical and mechanical properties of selenium thin film
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In this paper a thin films of selenium was prepare on substrates of n-Si by evaporation in a vacuum technique with thickness about 0.5μm. And then an annealing process was done on samples at two temperature (100 and 200) C ° in a vacuum furnace (10-3 torr).
Some structural, optical and mechanical properties of prepared thin films were measured. Results showed that the prepared film was the crystallization, optical transmittance and micro hardness of the prepared thin films increased significantly after annealing.

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Alexandria Engineering Journal
Biodegradation of reactive dyes by some bacteria using response surface methodology as an optimization technique
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Water pollution as a result of contamination with dye-contaminating effluents is a severe issue for water reservoirs, which instigated the study of biodegradation of Reactive Red 195 and Reactive Blue dyes by E. coli and Bacillus sp. The effects of occupation time, solution pH, initial dyes concentrations, biomass loading, and temperature were investigated via batch-system experiments by using the Design of Experiment (DOE) for 2 levels and 5 factors response surface methodology (RSM). The operational conditions used for these factors were optimized using quadratic techniques by reducing the number of experiments. The results revealed that the two types of bacteria had a powerful effect on biodegradable dyes. The regression analysis reveale

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Ibero- American Journal Of Exercise And Sports Psychology
THE EFFECT OF SPECIAL EXERCISES USING TWO DESIGNED DEVICES IN DEVELOPING SOME DEFENSIVE HANDBALL SKILLS
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