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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of knowledge management in achieving strategic excellence Field research in some Iraqi private banks
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The purpose of the research is to study the impact of knowledge management (personalization and coding strategy) in achieving strategic excellence in the environment of Iraqi private banks, and the descriptive and analytical research approach has been adopted, so the researcher adopted positive philosophy according to the deductive approach for the purpose of deriving the first research hypothesis from the theoretical side and the research reached a group of The most important results are that the personalization strategy has made great progress in its ability to influence strategic superiority as a responsive variable, as the civil bank departments were successful in employing the changes that occurred in the personalization str

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Statistical
Evaluating the performance of introduced varieties of maize (Zea Mays L.) and estimating some genetic parameters
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Biodiversitas Journal Of Biological Diversity
Assessment of some heavy metals in various aquatic plants of Al-Hawizeh Marsh, southern of Iraq
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Abstract. Al-Abbawy DAH, Al-Thahaibawi BMH, Al-Mayaly IKA, Younis KH. 2021. Assessment of some heavy metals in various aquatic plants of Al-Hawizeh Marsh, southern of Iraq. Biodiversitas 22: 338-345. In order to describe the degree of contamination of aquatic environments in Iraq, heavy metals analysis (Fe, Ni, Cr, Cd, Pb, and Zn) was conducted for six aquatic macrophytes from different locations of Al-Hawizeh Marsh in southern Iraq. The six species were Azolla filiculoides (floating plant), Ceratophyllum demersum, Potamogeton pectinatus, Najas marina (submerged plants), Phragmites australis, and Typha domingensis (emergent plants). The results indicate that cadmium, chromium, and iron concentrations in aquatic plants were above the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Immunization effect of Proteus vulgaris fimbrial and lipopolysaccharide antigens in histopathological changes in some internal organ
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The aim of this study to conduct the effects of fimbrial and lipopolysacchride (LPS) immunization is on the pathohistological changes in rabbits, Fifteen rabbits of both sexes (Weight 1500-2000 gm) divided into three groups (5 animals of each group). The first group was immunized by 1ml (200µg /animal) of fimbrial subcutaneously the second group gave 1 ml ( 200 µg /animal) LPS while the third group was left as negative control group that injected 1 ml phosphate buffer control subcutaneously. First and second groups recived the same dose after two weeks give as booster dose. All animals challenged after 5 weeks of immunization by5X107CFU/ml Proteus vulgaris intra peritoneally .After 7 days from challenge all the animals, sacrificed for hi

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 16 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Chemical Health Risks
Synthesis, Characterization and Study the Biological Activity of Some New Heterocyclic Compounds Derived from Terephthalic Acid
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The organic compound imidazole has the chemical formula C3N2H4. Numerous significant biological compounds contain imidazole. The amino acid histidine is the most prevalent. The substituted imidazole derivatives have great potential for treating a variety of systemic fungi infections. Thiourea is an organosulfur compound with the formula SC(NH2)2. It is a reagent in organic synthesis. In this paper, some new imidazole and thiourea derivatives are synthesized, characterized, and studied for their biological activity. These new compounds were synthesized from the starting material terephthalic acid, which was transformed to corresponding ester [I] by the refluxing of diacid with methanol in the presence of H2SO4 as a catalyst, compound [I] con

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Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of crude extracts of the plant local wolf riding in the growth of some fungi
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Make a search on the vegetative parts of the plant local horse guilt of some elements in the Haj Omran area in northern Iraq has included recognition of certain nutrients

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Aqueous Extract of Fig (Ficus carica) Fruit on Some Hematological Parameters in Female Rabbits
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The effect of the aqueous extract of fig (Ficus carica) fruit was studied by using different concentrations of this fruit (15, 20 and 25 mg/kg of body weight) on some hematological parameters (hemoglobin concentration, packed cell volume, white blood cell count and platelets count) in female rabbits. Twenty female rabbits were randomly divided into four groups (five animals in each group). Three groups were dosed with the concentrations mentioned above, while the last was administered with distilled water and considered as control group. These animals were orally dosed by aqueous extract using a micropipette. The results showed that there was a significant (P<0.05) increase in hemoglobin concentration and packed cell volume means for all

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of modified nanohydroxyapatite fillers addition on some properties of heat cured acrylic denture base materials
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Background: Poly (methylmethacrylate) is not ideal in every aspect and has disadvantages such as insufficient surface hardness, increase water sorption and poor impact resistance and the latter being the primary cause of fracture of denture base resins. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of addition of silanized nano- hydroxyapatite (HA) on some properties of heat cured acrylic denture base material. Materials and methods: HA nano particles were first silanized with MPS (tri methacryloxypropyletrimethoxy silane coupling agent) then ultrasonicated with methylmethacrylate (monomer) to disperse agglomerated nano particles and mixed with polymer. 2% by wt of HA nano particles was selected as the best concentration that add

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Toxic Effect of Pb Nanoparticles Prepared by Laser ablation on Some Biochemical Aspects in Rats
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This work aimed to prepare and study the characteristic feature of lead nanoparticles (PbNPS) and follow its effects on some physiological aspects in rats.PbNPS was prepared by laser ablation of pure lead mass with a pulse of 500 and 100 mJ of energy. The results indicated that the wavelength was approximately 196 and the concentration was reported at 53,8967 mg / L. AFM, as the average diameter has been estimated at 69.93 nm. EFSEM shows the spherical shape of the particle.The experimental animals (rats) were divided into two groups, with seven rats for each one. The first group was a control and the second group was injected with 1 milliliter of PbNPS (53.8673 mg/l) per day for 45 days. Bioaccumulated lead ( in liver, spleen kidney and

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2015
Journal Name
World Journal Of Experimental Biosciences
Effectiveness of some β- lactamase encoding geneson biofilm formation and slime layer production byuropathogenic Escherichia coli
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In present study 74 specimens of urine were collected from patients suffering from urinary tract infections.Fifty (67.56%) isolates were identified as Escherichia coli. 78% of isolates were identified as extendedspectrum beta lactamases (ESBL) producer. Antibiotic susceptibility t est was done and ceftazidime wasselected to complete this study by implying stress at sub-MIC on isolate harbor high number of resistancegenes (N11) and compared with sensitive isolate (S). Only four β-lactamase coding genes were detected;blaTEM, blaPER, blaVIM and blaCTX-M-2 and N11 had blaTEM, blaPER, and blaVIM. It was found that the resistantisolate did not form biofilm when compared with the sensitive one, which formed moderate biofilm. Inaddition, ceftazidi

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