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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Degree of Practicing of the Sixth Primary Social Studies’ Teachers in Iraq for the Principles of Active Learning from their Point of view
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This study aimed to explore The Degree of Practicing of the Sixth Primary Social Studies’ Teachers in Iraq for the Principles of Active Learning from their Point of view

The study society consisted of 230 male and femalesocial studiesteachers’ subjects for the sixth primary grade in Al-Anbar General Directorate of Education. 160 of them were selected to represent the sample of the study with a percent of (70%) from the original society. To achieve the aims of the study, the researchers prepared a questionnaire consisting of (43) items which represented the active learning principles. The validity and stability of the tool were verified. The researchers used the descriptive approach to suit the objectives of this study. &

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Effectiveness of conventional phototherapy, intensive phototherapy and exchange transfusion in treating neonatal jaundice at Fatima Al-Zahra Hospital for maternity and children in Baghdad
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Background: Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia is a common disease in neonates especially in early days of birth that requires a good and successful treatment for reducing the severity and its complications that can produce important and irreversible effects.

Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness of conventional phototherapy, intensive phototherapy and exchange transfusion on outcomes of neonatal jaundice at Fatima Al-Zahra Hospital for maternity and child care in Baghdad.

Patients & Methods: A retrospective study was carried out using medical records of neonates with diagnosis of unconjugated jaundice, admitted in the septic neonatal care unit of Fatima Al-Zahra hospital over 6 months period b

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 09 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Innovation, Creativity And Change
Estimation of the Effect of the Government Expenditure Growth Rate on the Rate of Inflation in the Iraqi Economy for the Period (1991- 2015)
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Government expenditure represents one of the controlling financial policies in the economic affairs and management of the economic cycle in order to achieve price stability, raise the rate of output growth and decrease the level of unemployment. The price stability represents one of the macroeconomic goals that all countries seek without exception, regardless of the economic philosophy adopted by each country; in addition to this is raising the productive capacity and reaching the actual output to the level of the expected output, that is, the level of output related to the natural unemployment rate or what is sometimes called the Non-inflationary unemployment rate. The restriction of government expenditure (G=T+∆B/iP+∆M/P) is

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the constructivism Model for Chemistry Subject and Its Effect on the Life Skill by the Second Intermediate Female Students
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The research aims to identify the effect of teaching-learning design based on the constructivism theory on the life skills of middle stage students. The sample consisted of (60) students from one of the middle schools in Baghdad's governorate. The experimental group and control group consisted of 30 students for each group, the research tool was the life skills scale composed of (78) items. The scale proved its validity and reliability, which was found to be (0.85). The results showed a statistically significant difference in life skills between the two groups of research in favor of the experimental group, which studied the educational design according to models of constructivism theory compared to the usual method of teaching.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the effect of foreign debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco for the period 1990-2017 using the ARDL Test
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The research aims to identify the magnitude of the impact of external debt on the gross domestic product in Morocco, and the importance of research lies in the role that external debt plays in addressing structural imbalances, if it is best disposed of according to well-studied economic plans by specialists in this regard, especially if these debts are directed with Other resources, as it helps pay the costs of these debts (debt servicing) that the external debt also raises the level of gross domestic product, and the research starts from the hypothesis that: There is an effect of foreign debt on the GDP in Morocco, has contributed in one way or another to The exacerbation of the external debt, which affected the m

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The effect of Tabata exercises on the development of stamina and achievement for female athletes running 100m hurdles under the age of 18 years
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يعد علم التدريب الرياضي الحديث عملية تربوية علمية مبنية على اسس صحيحة هدفها وصول اللاعبين الى التكامل في الاداء الفني وهذا يتم عن طريق التأثير المنظم والدقيق بواسطة استعمال التمارين البدنية التي تحدث تغيرات خاصة في عمل اعضاء واجهزة جسم الرياضي والتي بدورها تؤدي الى رفع كفاءة الاعضاء والاجهزة لتحقيق الانجازات الرياضية العالية ولقد استعملت الباحثتان اسلوب حديث من اساليب التدريب الرياضي من اجل تطوير تحم

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
International Journal Of Physics And Research (ijpr)
CALCULATIONS OF MOLTIPOLE MIXING RATIOS FOR GAMMA TRANSITIONS OF Yb POPULATED FROM Yb REACTION USING -RATIO, CONSTANT STATISTICAL TENSOR AND LEAST SQUARES FITTING METHODS
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The - mixing ratios of -transitions from levels in populated in the reactions are calculated in present work using - ratio, constant statisticalTensor and least squares fitting methods The results obtained are in general, in good agreement or consistent, within the associated uncertainties, with these reported in Ref.[9],the discrepancies that occurs are due to inaccuracy existing in the experimental data The results obtained in the present work confirm the –method for mixed transitions better than that for pure transition because this method depends only on the experimental data where the second method depends on the pure or those considered to be pure -transitions, the same results occur in – method

Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Effect of existing deposit facilities on the quality of bank liquidity: Applied research in the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2010 - 2017)
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The research aims at showing the effectiveness of the existing deposit facilities in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010/2017. The problem of research indicates that the Iraqi banking system enjoys high liquidity levels exceeding the standard rate set by the Central Bank of Iraq amounting to 30% For an appropriate level of liquidity remains a major challenge to the management of the bank because it is a trade-off between profitability and liquidity, and also indicates the existence of funds disabled and not available for credit and investment opportunities, and based on the research hypothesis:

The existence of a significant effect of the deposit facilities existing in the liquidity of the Iraqi banking

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Influence of The Kind of Feeding on The Average of Body Growth for The Infant of The Age (3-6) Months in Baghdad.City
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This paper was conducted to identifying the body growth averages for the infants of the age (3-6) months and their relation with brest (natural ) or artificial feeding The results showed that the higher percentage was for the infants with the natural feeding in comparison with those of the artificial or mixed feeding. Also there was a clear increase in the average of the body growth for those with the natural feeding and such results were closer to the standard criterion. While the averages of body growth for those with the artificial or mixed feeding were low. In addition, it was clear that the averages of body growth of the i

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 13 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Localization of Maxillary Impacted Canine Using Cone Beam Computed Tomography for Assessmentof Angulation, Distance From Occlusal Plane, Alveolar Width and Proximity to Adjacent Teeth
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ABSTRACT Backgrounds: Maxillary canine impaction is complicated and time consuming to treat, for being highly diverse in inclination and location; it may be a companied by root resorption of the neighboring teeth. CBCT has been used for its' diagnostic reliability in localization of impacted canine and revealing its' serious local complications. Objectives: Localization of maxillary impacted canine using cone beam computed tomography for assessment of angulation, distance from occlusal plane, alveolar width and proximity to adjacent teeth. Subjects and Methods: The study sample was 33 subjects 16 females and 17 males attended to Al-Wasitti general hospital in Baghdad city-Oral and maxillofacial radiology department for CBCT scan investigati

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