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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Saudi Medical Journal
Treatment of perniosis with oral pentoxyfylline in comparison with oral prednisolone plus topical clobetasol ointment in Iraqi patients.
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AA Noaimi, BM Fadheel, Saudi medical journal, 2008 - Cited by 25

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Rawal Medical Journal
Fixation of unstable intertrochanteric fractures with proximal femoral nailing: Supine position with traction table versus lateral decubitus position
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Objective: To compare two positioning approaches in the surgical treatment of unstable intertrochanteric femoral fractures fixed by proximal femoral nailing, the supine versus lateral decubitus position Methodology: This randomized prospective comparative study on 26 patients with unstable intertrochanteric fractures was carried out from January 2020 and June 2022. We randomly divided patients into two groups: group A (13 patients) were operated using the traction table in the supine position for implant insertion, and group B (13 patients) were operated using the lateral decubitus position. We compared both groups regarding the setup time, operative time, tip-to-apex distance, collodiaphyseal angle, time for fluoroscopic time expo

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Humoral immune factor changes in group of patients with Non-muscle invasive bladder cancer treated with intravesical therapy.
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Natural Convection in Annulus Between Two Concentric Cylinders Partially Filled with Metal Foam Distributed with New Suggested Design
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Abstract<p>The investigation of natural convection in an annular space between two concentric cylinders partially filled with metal foam is introduced numerically. The metal foam is inserted with a new suggested design that includes the distribution of metal foam in the annular space, not only in the redial direction, but also with the angular direction. Temperatures of inner and outer cylinders are maintained at constant value in which inner cylinder temperature is higher than the outer one. Naiver Stokes equation with Boussinesq approximation is used for fluid regime while Brinkman-Forchheimer Darcy model used for metal foam. In addition, the local thermal equilibrium condition in the energy e</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY THE SENSORY PROPERTIES OF SOME TYPES OF JUICES THAT MADE BY USING NATURAL SWEETENER POWDER (Stevia rebaudiana): STUDY THE SENSORY PROPERTIES OF SOME TYPES OF JUICES THAT MADE BY USING NATURAL SWEETENER POWDER (Stevia rebaudiana)
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Increased diseases and obesity currently due to increased production and excessive consumption of foods manufactured from non-food sweeteners without attention to the risk of consuming those additional high calories due to consuming these refreshing products such as juices and other various drinks, especially in the summer season by most segments of Iraqi society, especially workers, children and school students the aim of this study. Therefore, the study designed to replace sucrose with 0.03, 0.04 and 0.05% of each of the white stevia crystals and milled dry stevia leaves in the laboratory manufacture of juices and its effect on the general and sensory characteristics and the extent of their acceptability among the specialized r

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 07 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400: DETECTION OF MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION IN SOME TYPES OF FLOUR THAT AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS USING BACTRAC DEVICE 3400
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A microbial study conducted for a number of flour samples (30 samples) Uses in the bakery ovens in various areas of the city of Baghdad, by used the conventional methods used in laboratories in microbial tests and compared with the modern techniqueby usedof BacTrac Device 3400 equipped from SY-LAB Impedance analysersAustrian company.The results of two ways showed (The conventional way and BacTrac Device test)that the total counts of aerobic bacteria, coliform bacteria, StaphylococcusSpp. bacteria, Bacillus cereus bacteria and yeasts and molds,Most of them were within the permissible borders in the Iraqi standard for grain and its products With free samples from SalmonellaSpp. bacteria, and that the screening by BacTrac device are shorten

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 14 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Determine the chemical content of Bay (Laurus nobilis L.) leaves extract and its effectivenss against some bacterial species: Determine the chemical content of Bay (Laurus nobilis L.) leaves extract and its effectivenss against some bacterial species
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This study has been performed to study the inhibitory effects of crude plant extracts of Bay (laurus nobilis) leaves against some bacterial isolates represented by Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermids, Proteus vulgaris, Bacillus subtilis, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeroginosa in vitro. The results showed that percentages of essential chemical of laurus nobilis leaves which represented by moisture, total oil, total ash, crude protein, crude fibers, carbohydrites and caloric values in dry weight are 5.96, 4.28, 14.2, 8.75, 24.8, 76.99%, and 284.92 kcal/100g respectively, the percentages of some major and minor mineral elements of laurus nobilis leaves powder which represented by Mg, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd and As, are: 0.211, 0.1

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biological and chemical Study to evaluate the types of water used for drinking in the Al-youssiffiyah area and its effect on public health
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Election study included four sites for the waters in area of Youssifiyah south of Baghdad (river water, tank water, liquefactions water, and water filtrate and seethed and purifier by alum and chloride), the samples were collected during the month of June in 2007. Temperature, electrical conductivity and acidity are measured. Also , the concentration of chloride , sulphate , carbonate , nitrate , sodium , calcium , magnesium , hard total and total dissolved substances are determined , as well as heavy metals assess environmental risk (such as Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe). It was also a study of bacterial totals included both total Bacteria (TB) and Total Coliform Bacteria (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) and Fecal Streptococci (FS). The stu

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Impact of the Sowt Strategy on the Development of Systemic Intelligence among Students of the Ibn Rushd College of Education for the Humanities
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The aim of the current research is to identify the impact of the SWOT strategy on developing systemic intelligence among students of the Ibn Rushd College of Education for Human Sciences University of Baghdad / College of Education Ibn Rushd for Human Sciences. The current research community consists of (8590) male and female students, divided into (7) departments. The current research relied on one of the partial control designs, which is the design of non-random groups: experimental group and a control group with a pre and post-test. As for the research tool, It was represented by Tourmanin’s Systemic Intelligence Scale (2012) of (50) items that measure the eight components of systemic intelligence. The results of the Mann Whitney te

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