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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Role of the Internet in Spreading Rumors Social networking sites "Facebook" model For the duration of 1-7-2017 until 30-11-2017: يوسف محمد حسين
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This study is about the role of the Internet in spreading rumors, especially through social networking sites "Facebook" model as the effectiveness of social networks lies in the speed of transmission of events; these two characteristics are important to the public, making the Internet a strong contender for television and its relationship with the public. That's why we find that the Internet today has become a fertile environment for the growth and spread of rumors. The more limited the platforms and places of publication, the greater the responsibility in the search for the original source in   spreading this or that rumor, as the Internet is considered an easy means in the production, spreading  and re-spreading  of

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of economic factors on the appearance of unequal costs and rationalization of operational decision: An applied research in Wasit State Company for Textile Industries
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There is a set of economic factors that affect the rationalization of decisions on unexploited resources within the economic unit and here determines the problem of the search for the question of what economic factors cause the emergence of asymmetric costs, and aims to identify these factors in the costs of adjustment to resources, change in The size of the activity of the economic unit, the general trend of sales change in the previous period, and the economic level of the country. Rh measure the impact of these factors on economic unity, and taking into consideration the impact when formulating decisions.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risk of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks: (Applied res earch in the Islamic Cooperation Bank)For the years (2016-2012)
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This research deals with the risks of non-compliance and its impact on the profitability of Islamic banks. Research variables were measured and analyzed as the risk of non-compliance as an independent variableand profitability as a dependent variable. The profitability was measured by three indicators ((rate of return on assets, rate of return on equity and rate of return on Total deposits)) The results of the research showed a significant relationship between the risk of non-compliance and the rate of return on assets and rate of return on total deposits, while there was no relationship between the risk of non-compliance and rate of return on ownership. The research recommended that the senior management of the Islamic Investment Bank s

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 13 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Evaluation of Activities and Evaluation Questions Implied in the Content of the Computer Textbook for the Fifth Preparatory Grade According to Creative Thinking and Developing Suggestions
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The current research aims to evaluate the activities and evaluation questions implied in the content of the computer textbook for the fifth preparatory grade according to the creative thinking and developing suggestions through answering the following question: what is the percentage of creative thinking skills in the content of the computer textbook for the fifth Preparatory grade students issued by the Iraqi Ministry of Education/ Directorate General of the curriculum in the academic year (2019-2020)? The researchers followed the descriptive-analytical approach.  The research community was determined by the content of the computer textbook for the fifth preparatory grade. As for the research sample, it was limited to all activitie

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 03 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of international auditing standard (320) of materiality in defining the analytical procedures of the auditor: Applied research in the Iraqi company for seed production
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The study seeks to clarify the role of International Auditing Standard No. (320) of the relative importance in determining responsibility for planning and implementing the process of auditing financial statements and expressing neutral technical opinion through the analytical procedures of the auditor, whose responsibility is to obtain appropriate and reliable audit evidence that helps the auditor to form a general conclusion about whether The financial statements were consistent with the auditor's understanding of the entity. The relative importance contributes to defining the important accounts that help to set priorities for the auditor to set the necessary analytical procedures for these accounts. One of the most important co

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The gratifications of local television sports programs from the audience's point of view Analytical study for the period from 1/7/2022 to 01/10/2022
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The issue of sports media and its role in winning sports and non-sports fans and unifying them towards various issues and events is one of the important topics that have begun to occupy many countries and governments in the world and allocate appropriate spaces for it and provide it with sufficient funds and budgets to advance this reality...

Especially since the concept of the sports official has It changed a lot and turned into an economic concept rather than a sport one through the investment in the field of sports and the entry of capital and contributes to the prosperity of the countries interested in this field.

It is important that includes profit and loss in addition to knowing how to employ and win the masses and e

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The cognitive complexity of the leaders and their impact on the organizational flexibility of field research at the company's headquarters for the distribution of petroleum products
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The present research aims to test the effect of cognitive complexity as an independent variable in organizational agility as a responsive variable among the leaders working at the headquarters of the Iraqi Petroleum Products Distribution Company.

 To conclude a number of recommendations that contribute in the organizational agility in the company, and due to the importance of this research in public organizations and its notable role in community organizations. The research was carried out on a random sample of 101 individuals out of a total of 308, which represents the high leaders in the company (general managers, head of departments, and division officials). A questionnaire was used as information

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the fiscal policy indicators and the bank stability index in Iraq for the period 2010-2016 using the ARDL model.
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The importance of this research is to clarify the nature and the relationship between the indicators of financial policy and banking stability in Iraq, as well as to find a composite index reflects the state of banking stability in Iraq in order to provide an appropriate means to help policymakers in making appropriate decisions before the occurrence of financial crises.

     Hence, the problem of research is that the fiscal policy has implications for the macro economy and does not rule out its impact on banking stability. Moreover, the central bank does not possess a single indicator that reflects the stability of the banking system, rather than the scattered indicators that depend o

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of Iraqi trade policies in stimulating productive sectors to grow for the period (2003-2019) (an analytical study in light of the Malaysian experience)
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The research deals with analyzing the influencing role of trade policies in the growth and development of productive economic sectors and their contribution to GDP and its reflection on workforce employment. Studies have proven the success of the Malaysian experience in stimulating the productive economic sectors to grow and their contribution to the gross domestic product with an increase in the growth of local markets and access to international markets for national products. The research also deals with the ineffectiveness of Iraqi trade policies after 2003 in stimulating the productive economic sectors (agricultural and industrial) on economic growth, as most of the increase in Iraqi GDP growth throughout the study period was

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Strategic Intelligence on the Process of Green Manufacturing An Explorative Study for the Managers Opinions of Sample of Mineral water factories at Dahuk
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         The studying trying to determine the role of  Strategic Intelligence on the Process of Green Manufacturing  of  Sample of Mineral water factories at Dahuk city.  The study submit a theoretical frame of Strategic Intelligence and Green Manufacturing, a supposed sample, had been set to reverye   the nature of the relations and effect in the study  Varity, the study  depend on group of the main and branch concurring with the relations and effect between the Strategic Intelligence and Green Manufacturing to answer the following questions about research to problems:

 What are the relationships and effects between stra

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