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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Investigation of density and form factor of some F isotopes using Hartree-Fock and shell model calculations
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Structure of unstable 21,23,25,26F nuclei have been investigated
using Hartree – Fock (HF) and shell model calculations. The ground
state proton, neutron and matter density distributions, root mean
square (rms) radii and neutron skin thickness of these isotopes are
studied. Shell model calculations are performed using SDBA
interaction. In HF method the selected effective nuclear interactions,
namely the Skyrme parameterizations SLy4, Skeσ, SkBsk9 and
Skxs25 are used. Also, the elastic electron scattering form factors of
these isotopes are studied. The calculated form factors in HF
calculations show many diffraction minima in contrary to shell
model, which predicts less diffraction minima. The long tail

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The tax examination by using some statistical methods: An applied research in the General Commission of taxes
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this research aims at a number of objectives including Developing the tax examination process and raise its efficiency without relying on comprehensive examination method using some statistical methods in the tax examination and Discussing the most important concepts related to the statistical methods used in the tax examination and showing its importance and how they are applied. the research represents an applied study in the General Commission of taxes. In order to achieve its objectives the research has used in the theoretical side the descriptive approach (analytical), and in the practical side Some statistical methods applied to the sample of the final accounts for the contracting company (limited) and the pharmaceutical industry (

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Effect of some Variables on the Formulation of Captopril as Tablets Shaymaa Nazar Al – Sammarrai
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Captopril is an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) used to treat hypertension,
congestive heart failure, and myocardial infraction.
The only dosage form available for captopril is the plain tablet in strength of 12.5,25,50 and 100mg
tablet.
This investigation is concerned with factors affecting the formulation of captopril as a plain
tablet dosage form of 50mg. Many trials were made to prepare satisfactory tablets for the drug by
using wet – granulation methods with various additives. It was found that poly vinyl pyrrolidone
(P.V.P.) as binder gave the most satisfactory tablets. At the same time a shorter disintegrantion time
and slower dissolution rate were obtained with the addition of starch

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archive
Irrigation intervals affect dhn1 expression and some physiological parameters in stay green and non-stay-green sorghum
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Scopus (17)
Scopus
Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Indian Journal Of Forensic Medicine & Toxicology
Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry Analysis of Heavy Metals in Some Food Additives Available in Baghdad Markets, Iraq
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Flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer (FAAS) was used in this study to determine the concentrations of heavy metals such as Ca, Fe, Mn, Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, Cu, Pb and Zn in some food additives of Iraq. The order of metal contents in food additives was found to be Ca ˃ Mn ˃ Fe ˃ Cu ˃ Zn ˃ Pb ˃ Cr ˃ Ni ˃ Co ˃ Cd. The concentration level of each metal was compared with that recommended by food agriculture organisation (FAO) and world health organisation (WHO). Calibration curves were linear for all standard solutions of heavy metals in the range starting from 0.02-0.4 mg/kg for Cd to 11-100 mg/kg for Ca. The correlation coefficients values (R2) of calibrations were investigated and ranged from 0.9971 for Cr to 0.9999 for Ca. Th

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Scopus (14)
Scopus
Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining the Mobility of some Essential Elements in Saffron (Crocus sativus L.) by the Neutron Activation Analysis
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The main purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the concentrations of six essential metals (Na+, Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+ and Zn2+) in saffron and a farm soil using the neutron activation analysis (NAA) as a nuclear spectrometry method. The stratified random sampling method was used here. The NAA results showed the well uptake of Mg2+, K+, Ca2+, Fe2+, and Zn2+ in saffron, which is lower than the toxicity range. Based on the contamination factor and geoaccumulation index, soil contamination levels were determined uncontaminated by Zn, moderately contaminated by Na+ and Fe2+, and strongly contamin

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Characterization and Biological Activity of Some New Derivatives Derived from Sulfamethoxazole Compound: new derivatives from sulfamethoxazole drug.
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 A new series of Sulfamethoxazole derivatives was prepared and examined for antifibrinolytic and antimicrobial activities. Sulfamethoxazole derivatives bear heterocyclic moieties such as 1,3,4-thiadiazine {3},  pyrazolidine-3,5-diol {4} 6-hydroxy-1,3,4-thiadiazinane-2-thione {5} and [(3-methyl-5-oxo-4,5-dihydro-1H-pyrazol-4-yl)diazenyl] {8}. Their structures were elucidated by spectral methods (FT-IR, H1-NMR). Physical properties are also determined for all compound derivatives.  Recently prepared compounds were tested for their antimicrobial activity in the laboratory. Each screened compound showed good tendency to moderate antimicrobial activity.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EFFECT OF INJECTED DIFFERENT CONCENTRATIONS OF ALCOHOLIC EXTRACT OF Moringa oleifera LEAVES POWDER IN HATCHING EGGS OF ADVANCED AGE OF BROILER BREEDERS ON PRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE AND CARCASSES OF BROILER CHICKENS: EFFECT OF INJECTED DIFFERENT CONCENTRATIONS OF ALCOHOLIC EXTRACT OF Moringa oleifera LEAVES POWDER IN HATCHING EGGS OF ADVANCED AGE OF BROILER BREEDERS ON PRODUCTIVE PERFORMANCE AND CARCASSES OF BROILER CHICKENS
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This experiment was conducted to study the effect of injecting hatching eggs into a flock of broiler aged mothers with different concentrations of the alcoholic extract of Moringa oleifera powder on productive performance of broilers during the period of rearing of 35 days. The study included two experiments for a period at 2/10/2021 to 28/11/2021, where eggs were injected into the Mustafa Poultry Hatchery/ Wasit Governorate- Aziziyah District. A 400 hatching eggs of 308 Ross  mothers of modern broilers used at age  of 48  week, eggs of average weight  66 ± 1 g/egg were collected in same day then stored for two days. A quarter of treatments were randomly distributed with 100 eggs for each treatment.

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
2020 International Conference On Computer Science And Software Engineering (csase)
Implementing a Super Decisions Software (SDS) in a Transport Sector
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Study of a-Si:H Absorption Edge Using Dunstan’s Model
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The optical absorption data of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon was analyzed using a Dunstan model of optical absorption in amorphous semiconductors. This model introduces disorder into the band-band absorption through a linear exponential distribution of local energy gaps, and it accounts for both the Urbach and Tauc regions of the optical absorption edge.Compared to other models of similar bases, such as the O’Leary and Guerra models, it is simpler to understand mathematically and has a physical meaning. The optical absorption data of Jackson et al and Maurer et al were successfully interpreted using Dunstan’s model. Useful physical parameters are extracted especially the band to the band energy gap , which is the energy gap in the a

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