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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 23 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
THE TAXONOMICAL SIGNIFICANT OF COMPUTERD PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS AND MORPHOLOGICAL DATA IN SOME SPECIES OF POLYGONACEAE
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This research dealt with study of cladistics taxonomy of  five  species related to the genus Rumex L. and Polygonum L. from family polygonaceae in Iraq by using Mesquite software V.2.75. This  research support strongly delimiting  the species P. aviculare L. and P. lapathifolia L.as suggested in floras publication while R. dentatus L. is setted in single group whereas R. vesicarius L. and R. conglomeratus Murray were included in the same group. Also, this study involved characteristics of shape, dimensions, color, and ornamentation of seeds and fruits as  the seed forms were ranging from lenticular to trigonous. In terms of size calculations,  the seeds of R. vesicarius  was recorded the higher range (4.0- 4.5) mm in length w

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
CALCULATION OF EXCESS MOLAR VOL-UMES OF SOME TERNARY LIQUID MIX-TURES AT 303.15 K
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Excess molar volumes of five ternary mixtures of 2- methoxy ethanol(1) +butyl acetate(2)+benzene(3), +toluene(3), +chlorobenzene(3), +bromobenzene(3), and +nitrobenzene(3) have been measured at 303.15K. The excess molar volume exhibited positive deviation over the entire range of composition in the systems 2-methoxy ethanol(1)+ butyl acetate(2)+ benzene(3),+toluene(3) and sigmoid behavior in the case of the remaining systems. Flory's statistical theory have been extended to predict the excess molar volumes of the five ternary mixtures at 303.15 k over a wide range of composition . An excellent agreement has been found between the experimental and theoretical excess molar volumes , both in magnitude and sign .

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Silver-Zinc Zeolite Incorporation on Some Properties of Condensation Silicone Impression Material
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Background: elastomeric impression materials are indicated when a high degree of accuracy is required, due to their excellent properties like details reproduction, dimensional stability and tear strength but with main two disadvantages those are their hydrophilicity as well as the absence of antibacterial activity. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of incorporation of 0.5% wt Ag-Zn zeolite into condensation silicone through the following tests; setting time, dimensional stability, reproduction of details, wettability, and hardness . Materials and methods: one hundred specimens were constructed of condensation silicone, divided into two groups for the first 50 specimens one0.5% by wt Ag -Zn zeolite was added, keeping the other fifty sp

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Economic Research
Credit derivatives: Do they matter to avoid credit exposure? (Some evidences from the US market)
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Credit derivatives (CDs) have been increasingly acknowledged as an important requirement to hedge and transfer credit risk CR. Nonetheless, they have been extensively criticized for destabilizing the whole economic system bringing about the latest subprime credit crisis. The study’s main aim is to investigate the reason for the use of (CDs), whether it is used for hedging or trade purpose, for four of the US international financial institutions that had made it through the 2007 crisis to resume functioning post-crisis. This will be for three different and critical periods, namely the pre, during and after crisis periods (Q1, 2000-Q1, 2014). Adopting the SUR technique, the investigation of the factors that influence the net position of (CD

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Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In vitro antimicrobial activity of total sesquiterpene lactones and phenols isolated from some Iraqi plants
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The antimicrobial potency of the crude ethanolic extracts from different Iraqi plants were evaluated . Further more, total sesquiterpene lactones and phenolic compounds were isolated and their antimicrobial activity attempted. The results indicated that crude extracts have no activity except that of Callistemon lanceolatus. Also, the sesquiterpene lactones and phenolic compounds isolated from Callistemon lanceolatus were the most significant antimicrobial active constituents of the studied plants.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 22 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis and Thermal Electo Conductivity of Some New Triazole Derivatives Bearing Azo or Azomethain Group
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Newly acid hydrazide was synthesized from ethyl 2-(2,3-dimethoxyphenoxy) acetate (2), which is cyclized to the corresponding  4-amino-1,2,4-triazole (3). Five newly azo derivatives (4a-e) were synthesized from this 1,2,4-triazole by converting the amine group to diazonium salt then reacted with various substituent phenol,as well three newly imine derivatives (5a-c) were synthesized from reacting the amine group of compound (3) with three aryl aldehyde. The thermal electro conductivity of these compounds was tested at 30, 50, 75 and 100 áµ’C. compound 4a showed interesting electro conductivity at 75áµ’C as well 5a

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Metals Complexes of [N-(4-Nitrobenzoyl Amino)-Thioxomethyl] Phenylalanine
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A new ligand [N-(4-nitrobenzoylamino)-thioxomethyl] phenylalanine is synthesized by reaction of 4-nitrobenzoyl isothiocyanate with phenylalanine (1:1). It is characterized by micro elemental analysis (C.H.N.S.), FT-IR, (UV-Vis) and 1H and 13CNMR spectra. Some metals ions complexes of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Visible spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From results obtained, the following formula [M(NBA)2] where M2+ = Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Pd, Cd and Hg, the proposed molecular structure for these complexes as tetrahedral geometry, except copper and palladium complexes are have square planer geometry.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 13 2025
Journal Name
Euphrates Journal Of Agricultural Science
PHYSIOLOGICAL INFLUENCEOFNITROGENFERTILIZERS RESOURCESANDANTI-TRANSPIRATININ SOME QUALITY ATTRIBUTES AND THE CONCENTRATION OF NITRATES IN POTATO TUBERS
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
SYNTHESIS AND ANTIMICROBIAL ACTIVITY OF SOME (2-AMINO-5-THIOL-1, 3, 4-THIADIAZOLE DERIVATIVES
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Five derivatives of thiadiazole were prepared with aldehydes and alkyl halides, compoundA: 2-amino-5-thiol-1,3,4- thiadiazole, compound B :2-(o-hydroxybenzylidine)amino-5-thiol-1,3,4-thiadiazole, compoundC: 2(2-butan-lidine)amino-5-thiol-1,3,4-thiadiazole, compound E: 2- amino-5-(2-Propanylthio)-1,3,4-thiadiazol) and compound F:2(o-chlorobenzylamino)-5-(2-propanyl thio)-1,3,4 thiadiazol. All prepared compounds were diagnosed by (IR) and (UV) Spectroscopy. All of those compounds were screened for their anti-microbial activity in vitro. The results show that most of the compounds A, B, C exhibited moderate to good activity against Gram-positive bacteria and the same compound exhibit low to moderate activity on most gram-negative bacte

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 13 2018
Journal Name
Rasayan Journal Of Chemistry
Novel Thermodynamic Properties of Binary Mixtures of Tetrahydrofurfuryl Alcohol wiyh some Alcohols At 298.15 K
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