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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Effect of citric and malic acids concentration on some growth and yield parameters of Vicia faba L. plant.
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An experiment was conducted in the plastic house of the Botanical Garden in the Department of Biology, College of Education for Pure Sciences (Ibn Al-Haitham), University of Baghdad during one growth season. The experiment included the study of the effect of three concentrations of citric acid (0, 75, 150) mg. L-1 and four concentrations of malic acid (0, 50, 100, 150) mg. L-1 and their interaction in some of the growth and yield parameters of the broad bean plant, plant height, dry weight, number of leaves, total chlorophyll content, the number of flowers and pods and the weight of the pod. The experiment was carried out in full random design (4× 3) and with three duplicates, the results showed a significant effect of citric and malic aci

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 27 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Some urban structures of the city of Baghdad in the book almntadham Ibn al-Jawzi (d. 597 e)
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 We conclude that this study has dealt with an important aspect of the book that was not clearly defined in the book as it was derived through the book's translations, namely, the extraction of those urban structures of the city of Baghdad, which were of great importance in the religious, cultural, economic and social life at that time, The important link that reflected the development of the Islamic city in general and Baghdad in particular, as he addressed such urban facilities through the translations of the book that did not offer the outline or information about those facilities, but only the name only, and here lies the difficulty in addressing Such as T. As subjects because they need the most accurate analysis of facilities t

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Tacit knowledge of auditors and their reflection on the effectiveness of the performance to some inspectors general offices
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This research aims to find out the extent the reflection of tacit knowledge dimensions (experience, skill, intuition, the ability to think) on Organizational performance of the offices of inspectors general dimensions (internal processes, growth and learning the focus, the focus on the customer) and the measurement and analysis of the type of impact the tacit knowledge of auditors on performance Organizational in inspectors general offices, the research seeks to diagnose the extent of awareness of Office Management knowledge implicit and the attention span of the administration in determining levels and performance levels, and the resolution means the main information-gathering adopted by the researcher, which, as well as his exp

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluating the effect of silver nanoparticles incorporation on antifungal activity and some properties of soft denture lining material
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Background: Colonization of soft denture liners by Candida albicans and other microorganisms continued to be a serious problem. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of incorporating silver nanoparticles into heat cured acrylic-based soft denture liner on the antifungal activity, and on water sorption, solubility, shear bond strength and color change of the soft lining material. Furthermore, evaluating the amount of silver released. Materials and methods: Silver nanoparticles were incorporated into soft denture liner in different percentages (0.05%, 0.1% and 0.2% by weight). Four hundred and twenty specimens were prepared and divided into five groups according to the test to be performed. The antifungal activity of the soft liner

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 04 2021
Journal Name
Nat. Volatiles & Essent. Oils
Using The Aqueous Extract Of Allium Sativum In Improvement Of Some Physiological And Immunological Parameter In Albino Rats
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The current study was designated to investigate the effect ofAllium sativumon some physiological and immunological parameters in rats. thirty adult rats were divided into three groups (10 rat for each). G1: served as healthy control, G2 :rats were treated with 150 mg\kg of Allium sativum, G3: treated with 300 mg\kg of Allium sativum. All treated animals were givenorally for 30 days. The aspartate , ) ALT ( alanine transaminase on some parameters were investigated such as garlic effects of total and differential counts of white blood , ) LDH ( lactate dehydrogenase ), AST ( transaminase cells(WBC) like Lymphocyte, Monocyte, Neutrophil, Basophil, Eosinophil,as

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Future Dental Journal
Studying some mechanical properties of maxillofacial silicone elastomer before and after incorporation of intrinsic pigments and artificial aging
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Objective Advantageous properties of silicone elastomer made it one of the favorable materials in maxillofacial prosthesis construction, but these properties may change after months of usage or after pigments addition. This study aimed to define the optimum concentration for a mixture of two types of intrinsic pigments that added to VST-50 maxillofacial silicone material and study their effects on mechanical properties before and after artificial aging. Methods After the pilot study was conducted, 0.1% by weight of rayon flocking and 0. 2% by weight of burnt sienna intrinsic pigment concentration was selected because of improvement in tested mechanical properties of VST-50 maxillofacial silicone. A total of one hundred and eighty samples we

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 10 2025
Journal Name
Retos
The effect of the strategy to nominate ideas on divided and selective attention and perform some volleyball skills
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Introduction: Attention is a fundamental cognitive function in sports, particularly in volleyball, where players must process multiple stimuli and make rapid decisions. Effective attentional control can enhance an athlete’s ability to react to dynamic game situations. The nomination of ideas strategy. Objective: This study aims to examine the effectiveness of the nomination of ideas strategy in enhancing divided and selective attention and its subsequent impact on volleyball skill performance. Methodology: A controlled experimental design was employed, involving volleyball players divided into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group integrated the nomination of ideas strategy into their training sessions,

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 05 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Entomology And Zoology Studies
Some biochemical traits in broiler chicken as affected by insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) gene polymorphisms
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This study was conducted during the period 1/9/2014 – 1/2/2015 and aimed to identify the polymorphisms of IGF-1 gene in broiler chickens and their effects on some biochemical traits. A total of 300 one-day-old broiler chicks (Cobb500, n=150; Hubbard F-15, n=150) were evaluated in this study. Blood samples were individually collected from all birds for DNA extraction. PCR-RFLP method being used for determination the genotypes of IGF-1 gene which then correlated with biochemical traits studied. Cobb500 broilers with TT genotype had significantly (p˂0.05) higher serum triglycerides values than those of TC and CC genotypes. Low density lipoprotein (LDL) were significantly (p˂0.05) higher in Hubbard F-15 broilers with TT genotype than those

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Effect of Grain and Calcinations Kaolin Additives on Some Mechanical and Physical properties on Low Density Polyethylene Composites
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In this work, a composite material was prepared from Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with different weight percent of grain and calcinations kaolin at temperature of (850oC) using single screw extruder and a mixing machine operated at a temperature between (190-200oC). Some of mechanical and physical properties such as tensile strength, tensile strength at break, Young modulus, and elongation at break, shore hardness and water absorption were determined at different weight fraction of filler (0, 2, 7, 10 and 15%). It was found that the addition of filler increases the modulus of elasticity, elongation at break, shore hardness and impact strength; on other hand, it decreases the tensile strength and tensile strength

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 22 2023
Journal Name
Iasr Journal Of Agriculture And Life Sciences
Determination of some heavy metals concentration in selected liquid soap, fruit and vegetable sterilizers used in Baghdad, Iraq
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Detergent is one of the pollutants that poses significant threats to ecological systems. Detergents can also dissolve in wastewater and negatively impact the efficiency of wastewater treatment facilities. They are used for a variety of functions, most notably hygiene, and are an integral aspect of human life. This means that there are a variety of routes by which detergent components can reach the environment. In this Study, twenty-three detergent samples from local markets in Baghdad. The aim of this study is to investigate the concentration of heavy metals Cobalt (Co), Chromium (Cr),Lead (Pb),Zinc (Zn), Iron (Fe) and Cadmium (Cd) in some detergents using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. The results of the concentration of heavy elemen

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