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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Antimicrobial Activity of Locally Synthesized Carbon Nanosphere on Some Pathogenic Species of Bacteria and Parasites
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Antibacterial activity of CNSs against Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli was estimated. Higher inhibition zone of 18 mm and 20 mm were observed against S. aureus and E.coli, respectively, at a concentration of 2 mg/ml of carbon nanosphere after 24 hrs of incubation at 37 ºC. In vitro cytotoxicity experiment was performed on two parasite strains of Leishmania donovani and Leishmania tropica by using MTT assay. L. donovani revealed more sensitiv to the CNSs than L. tropica. An intermediate level of cytotoxicity of 51.31 % was observed when 2.4 mg/ml of CNSs was incubated with L. donovani, while weak cytotoxicity of 37.20 % was shown when the

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Effect of certain chemical surface treatments on repair bond strength of some denture base materials
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Background: Fracture of different types of acrylic denture base is a common problem associated with dental prosthesis. Studies suggested that the repair strength may be improved by several means including surface treatment with chemical agents. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of surface treatment with acrybond-bonding agent and monomer on fractured denture base in respect to transverse, tensile and shear bond strength and evaluation of the mode of failure by light microscope. Materials and methods: Two hundred seventy specimens were prepared and divided into 3 groups according to the material used (regular conventional, rapid simplified and high impact) heat cure acrylic. The specimen in each groups were prepared specificall

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Characterization of some New 1,3,4-Oxadiazole derivatives based on 4-amino benzoic acid
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Various of 2,5- disubstituted 1,3,4-oxadiazole (Schiff base, ?- lactam and azo) were synthesized from 2,5-di (4,4?-amino-1,3,4-oxadiazole which usequently synth-esized from mixture of 4- amino benzoic acid and hydrazine arch of polyphosphorus acid. The synthesized compounds were cherecterized by using some spectral data (UV, FT-IR , and 1H-NMR)

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 16 2013
Journal Name
International Journal For Sciences And Technology
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Thiazine-4-Ones Containing 1, 3, 4-Thiadiazole Moiety
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Small ring heterocycles containing nitrogen and sulfur have been under investigation for a long time because of their important medicinal properties. Among the wide range of heterocycles explored to develop pharmaceutically important molecules, thiadiazoles had played an important role in medicinal chemistry. A survey of literature had shown that compounds having thiadiazole nucleus possess a broad range of biological activities such as anti-inflammatory (1), antibacterial (2), and antifungal activities (3). Thiazine-4-one and their derivatives are import classes of compounds in organic and medicinal chemistry. The thiazine-4-one ring system is a core structure in various synthetic pharmaceutical agents, displaying a broad spectrum of biolo

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Quantitative Analysis of Some Insecticides and Their Mixture in Agriculture by Using UV-Vis Spectrophotometer
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We studied in this research how to find a method of estimating the quantity (Kinetically) of three kinds of Insecticide and their mixture, which are used in agriculture. The extracted insecticide from the polluted samples with these insect from air, soil, and the leaves of trees, have be used into the reaction with H2O2 and benzedine. The kinetic study of this reaction was formed in basic medium,( pH= 8.6), using UV. Spectra at (?= 420nm). The study showed that the reaction is the first order, and the speed of the reaction was used to estimate the concentration of insecticide in solution and mixture. The experiments of this study indicated that this method has the speed and efficiency for quantitatively estimating these

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 01 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Research In Science And Technology
EFFECT OF ESSENTIAL OIL EXTRACTED FROM THE YELLOW PEEL OF CITIRUS AURANTIUM ON SOME FUNGI
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This study was aimed to investigate the effect of essential oil extracted from the yellow peels of Citrus aurantium on the growth of four species of fungi: Penicillium expansum, Penicillium oxalicum, Fusarium oxysporum and Fusarium proliferatum and effect of one fungicide: Aliette (fosetyl-aluminum) against these fungi. The results showed that the essential oil of C. aurantium inhibited the radial growth of P. oxalicum at concentration 4.5% while P. expansum and F. oxysporum at concentrations 5% and F. proliferatum at concentrations 5.5% additionally the one fungicide tested showed inhibitory effect on radial growth of these fungi. So that there is a negative relationship between the increasing of concentration and radial growth of fungi.

Publication Date
Thu Dec 07 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Chemistry
Synthesis of Some Novel 4-Aminoacetophenone Diazenyl and 1,2,3-Triazole Derivatives as Potential Antibacterial Agents
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With the study of synthesizing new organic compounds and exploring biological potency. Aryldiazenyl derivatives (2-5) were carried out by coupling of diazonium salt of 4-aminoacetophenone (1) and miscellaneous active methylene compounds such as: acetylacetone, ethyl cyanoacetate, dimedone or methyl acetoacetate. Moreover substituted 1,2,3-triazole (7-9) were synthesized by the cyclization of 1-(4-azidophenyl) ethanone (6); (which was obtained by coupling of diazonium salt (1) with sodium azid); with acetylacetone, methyl acetoacetate or methyl cyanoacetate, respectively. The structures of the prepared compounds were promoted by IR, H1NMR and UV/Visible spectra. Further, they were examined in vetro for antibacterial activity against five str

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-nahrain University Science
Synthesis and Biological Activity Study of New Some Schiff Bases Derived From D-Erythroascorbic Acid
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Al-mustansiriyah Journal Of Science
Synthesis and Characterization of Some New Metal Complexes of Ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-chlorobenzamide]
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A new ligand [N-(3-acetylphenylcarbamothioyl)-4-chlorobenzamide] (CAD) was synthesized by reaction of 4-Chlorobenzoyl isothiocyanate with 3-amino acetophenone, The ligand was characterized by elemental micro analysis C.H.N. S., FT-IR, UV-Vis and 1H,13C- NMR spectra, some transition metals complexes of this ligand were prepared and characterized by FT-IR, UV-Vis spectra, conductivity measurements, magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption, From obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were [M(CAD)2(H2O)2]Cl2 (M+2 =Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposed geometrical structure for all complexes were octahedral.

Publication Date
Thu Nov 22 2018
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis and Thermal Electo Conductivity of Some New Triazole Derivatives Bearing Azo or Azomethain Group
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Newly acid hydrazide was synthesized from ethyl 2-(2,3-dimethoxyphenoxy) acetate (2), which is cyclized to the corresponding  4-amino-1,2,4-triazole (3). Five newly azo derivatives (4a-e) were synthesized from this 1,2,4-triazole by converting the amine group to diazonium salt then reacted with various substituent phenol,as well three newly imine derivatives (5a-c) were synthesized from reacting the amine group of compound (3) with three aryl aldehyde. The thermal electro conductivity of these compounds was tested at 30, 50, 75 and 100 áµ’C. compound 4a showed interesting electro conductivity at 75áµ’C as well 5a at 75áµ’C while 5b showed significant conductivity at 100 áµ’C

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