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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Game – Like Exercises on the Development of Some Physical Abilities and Fundamental skills In Futsal
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Thu Sep 18 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Consecutive Case Study of Detraining On Some Functional, Physical, Body and Compound Skills Variables In Advance Basketball Players
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Contribution of Some Managerial Accounting Techniques to Achieve Market Share Requirements / Applied researchin the Al-Muthanna Cement Company
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The research aims to achieve market share requirements and reach the targeted competitive price through the application of management accounting techniques represented by continuous improvement technique and target costing under an Activity Based Cost (ABC) system and Activity Based Management (ABM), In Muthanna Cement Company to reach the rationalization of the cost of the product and maintain the required quality and improve the profitability of the company.

The problem of research has emerged in the inability of local firms to enter into effective competition with other companies operating in the same economic sector, Because of the high cost of its products, Which led to the sale of the product at prices below its cost, and t

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Saline water and Potash Fertilizer on some chemical constituents in Pisum sativum L.(Var.Senador Cambados) plant.
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Field experiment was conducted to test the effect of saline water and fertilizers rate on Pisum sativum L. plants . Treatments of the experiment included two levels of water salinity (2, 7 dSm-1) as a main plot and three levels of potash fertilization K2SO4 (44%K) namely 150 control, 300 and 450 kg/Donum as a sub plot. Results indicated that irrigation of plant with saline water 7 dSm-¹ caused a significant decrease in K and P contents specially in the upper parts of the plants , the percentage of the K increased (2.80%) under 2 dSm-¹of irrigation water and 300 kg/ donum fertilizer rate in the upper leaves, However K decreased(1.10%) in lower leaves under 7 dSm-¹ and 300 kg/donum fertilizer. while P increased in pods und

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 22 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Assessment of Some Serum Biomarkers of Fibromyalgia Syndrome in Pre and Postmenopausal Women in Relation to Obesity
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The objective of this study is to evaluate the level of parathyroid hormone, Co enzyme Q and total antioxidant status in serum’s women with fibromyalgia syndrome firstly, then to demonstrate if these biochemical markers affected by age and obesity.

      This study was performed at Rheumatology and Rehabilitation Consultation Unit in Baghdad Teaching Hospital. Venous blood sample were drawn from (59) female with FMS and (30) control (without FMS). The serum was obtained after on standing in order to coagulate then centrifuged. The mean age± SD of FMS group was (42.22±15.34) years and for control was (40.7±18.22) years. Those participants were subdivided into four different groups acc

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Al-qadisiyah Journal Of Pure Science
Synthesis and Spectroscopic Studies of Some Metal Complexes of [3-(3-(2-chloroacetyl)thioureido)pyrazine-2-carboxylic acid]
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A new ligand [3(3(2chloroacetyl) thioureido)pyrazine-2-carboxyliIcacid](CPC)was synthesized by reaction of rized by imicro elmental analysis C.H.N.S.,FT-IR,UV-Vis and 1H-13CNMR spectra, some transition metals complex ofIthis ligand were Prepared and characterized byiFT-IR,UV-Vis spectra conductivity measurements magnetic susceptibility and atomic absorption. From the obtained results the molecular formula of all prepared complexes were[M(CPC)2](M+2i=Mn. Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg),the proposedi geometrical structure for all complexes were as tetrahedral geometry except copper complex has square planer geometry.

Publication Date
Sat Mar 04 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Nordhaus-Gaddum Type Relations on Open Support Independence Number of Some Path Related Graphs Under Addition and Multiplication
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In this paper, Nordhaus-Gaddum type relations on open support independence number of some derived graphs of path related graphs under addition and multiplication are studied.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Evaluation of some indicators of urbanization in the city of al-Qaim in the Iraqi province of Anbar
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Urban Balance is one of the important indicators that leads to an assessment of the urbanization process in a particular country  , province or even a city that is multi-centered. By examining  the data related to Anba  province, it was found that the value of this indicator is equal to 0.96, which is less than the absolute one, and therefore the urbanization in the province is distributed collectively  

The development of a mathematical or statistical model for estimating urban growth is a complex process due to the overlap between indicators or variables that can be adopted to calculate estimate growth rates Al-Qaim city has been considered as an example to develop a statistical method by which changes

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 15 2023
Journal Name
Oncology And Radiotherapy
Synthesis, spectroscopic characterization, molecular docking, antioxidant and anticancer studies of some metal complexes from tetraazamacrocyclic Schiff base ligand
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Five novel nickel, iron, cobalt, copper, and mercury complexes were synthesized from tetraazamacrocyclic Schiff base ligand (L), which were derived from 3-(4-(dimethyl amino) benzylidene) pentane-2,4-dione and 1,2- diaminocyclohexane in a 2:2 molar ratio. Many physico-chemical and spectroscopic techniques, including melting point, 1HNMR, 13CNMR, elemental analysis, molar conductance, magnetic susceptibility, UV-Vis, FT-IR, and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), were used to characterize the Schiff base ligand and all metal complexes. The octahedral geometry of all the complexes [MLCl2] is confirmed by spectroscopic analyses. All substances' biological properties, such as their in vitro antioxidant activity or level of free radical scavenging

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Some blood parameters study in albino female mice orally given crude aqueous soy bean (Glycine max) seeds extract
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The possible effect of the crude aqueous extract of soy bean seeds on some blood parameters (total count of red blood cells, white blood cell , (total and differential) blood platelates, packed cell volume and concentration of blood hemoglobin) was studied in 20 albino female mice which were allocated in four experimental groups (5 mice/group). The first group was orally treated with distilled water (control group) while the second, third and fourth group were given a concentration of 4%, 6% and 8% of the extract, respectively. At the end of the daily gavaging, which lasted for 4 weeks, the animals were killed, after recording their life body weight, and blood samples were collected from each mice to study the effect

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