Preferred Language
Articles
/
jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
...Show More Authors

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Biochemistry And Cell Biology
EFFECT OF ADDED ALGAE POWDER (ASCOMAX) TO THE DIET ON SOME PRODUCTION TRAITS OF BROILERS
...Show More Authors

The study was conducted in the poultry field, College of Agriculture, Al-Muthanna University from 1/3/2018 to 6/4/2018 to determine the effect of commercial Ascomax powder produced from seaweed (Ascophyllum nodocum) on some productive performance of broilers. A total of 400, one day, Ross 308 broiler chicks were used for 35 days. The chicks were randomly distributed to 4 treatments, four replicates per treatment (25 chick / replicate). The treatments were as follows: T1: (control treatment), while T2, T3 and T4 added diet by Ascomax powder by 1, 1.5 and 2 g per 1 kg of the basal diet, respectively. The results of the study showed a significant superiority (P <0.05) for the added Ascomax powder treatments compared to the treatment of control

... Show More
Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2007
Journal Name
Basrah Journal Of Veterinary Research
Some anatomical and Histological observation on the pineal gland in an Endogenous Moorhen (Gallinula chloro)
...Show More Authors

View Publication
Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis of Some New Nucleoside Analogues Containing Seven Membered Ring and Studying Their Biological Activity
...Show More Authors

In this work, a series of new Nucleoside analogues (D-galactopyranose linked to oxepanebenzimidazole moiety) was synthesized via multisteps synthesis. The first step involved preparation of two benzimidazoles 2-styrylbenzimidazole and 2-(phenyl ethynyl) benzimidazole via reaction of phenylenediamine with cinnamic acid or ?-phenyl propiolic acid. Electrophilic addition of the prepared benzimidazoles by three anhydrides in the second step afforded (4-6) and (14-16) which in turn were treated with 1,2,3,4-di-O-isopropylidene galactopyranose in the third step to afford a series of the desirable protected nucleoside analogues (7-9) ,(17-19)which after hydrolysis in methanolic sodium methoxidein the fourth step afforded the free nucleoside analog

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences & Research
Evaluation of Oxidative Stress and Some Vitamins as Antioxidants in Type2 Diabetic and Nephropathic Patients.
...Show More Authors

Background: The present study involved the following parts, the first part is evaluation of the levels of glycated hemoglobin(HbA1c), creatinine, uric acid(UA) and albumin in patients with diabetic nephropathy comparison with the group of healthy as a control group. The second part is the measurement and evaluation of oxidative stress represented in the malondihydehyde(MDA) as a biomarker of oxidative stress as well as the identification of vitamins C and E as an antioxidant in patients with diabetic nephropathy(DN) compared with the healthy group. Objective: The objective of this study is to estimate oxidative stress by calculate malondialdehyd as biomarker and evaluate some vitamins such as vit C and vit E as antioxidants in diabetic neph

... Show More
Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectroscopic Characterization and Antimicrobial Activities of Some Heavy Metals Complexes of 2-hydroxy phenyl piperonalidene
...Show More Authors

An antibacterial and antifungal piperonal-derived compound and its Rh(III), Pd(II), Pt(IV), and Cd(II) metal complexes were synthesized and characterized by spectroscopic methods, conductivity, metal analyses and magnetic moment measurements. The nature of the complexes formed in ethanolic solution was studied following the molar ratio method. From the spectral studies, octahedral geometry was suggested for rhodium (III) and platinum (IV) complexes, while a square planer structure was suggested for palladium (II) complex and a tetrahedral geometry for cadmium (II) complex. Structural geometries of these compounds were also suggested in gas phase by using hyperchem-8 program for the molecular mechanics and semi-empirical calculations.

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Dec 23 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
THE TAXONOMICAL SIGNIFICANT OF COMPUTERD PHYLOGENETIC ANALYSIS AND MORPHOLOGICAL DATA IN SOME SPECIES OF POLYGONACEAE
...Show More Authors

This research dealt with study of cladistics taxonomy of  five  species related to the genus Rumex L. and Polygonum L. from family polygonaceae in Iraq by using Mesquite software V.2.75. This  research support strongly delimiting  the species P. aviculare L. and P. lapathifolia L.as suggested in floras publication while R. dentatus L. is setted in single group whereas R. vesicarius L. and R. conglomeratus Murray were included in the same group. Also, this study involved characteristics of shape, dimensions, color, and ornamentation of seeds and fruits as  the seed forms were ranging from lenticular to trigonous. In terms of size calculations,  the seeds of R. vesicarius  was recorded the higher range (4.0- 4.5) mm in length w

... Show More
Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
CALCULATION OF EXCESS MOLAR VOL-UMES OF SOME TERNARY LIQUID MIX-TURES AT 303.15 K
...Show More Authors

Excess molar volumes of five ternary mixtures of 2- methoxy ethanol(1) +butyl acetate(2)+benzene(3), +toluene(3), +chlorobenzene(3), +bromobenzene(3), and +nitrobenzene(3) have been measured at 303.15K. The excess molar volume exhibited positive deviation over the entire range of composition in the systems 2-methoxy ethanol(1)+ butyl acetate(2)+ benzene(3),+toluene(3) and sigmoid behavior in the case of the remaining systems. Flory's statistical theory have been extended to predict the excess molar volumes of the five ternary mixtures at 303.15 k over a wide range of composition . An excellent agreement has been found between the experimental and theoretical excess molar volumes , both in magnitude and sign .

View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Silver-Zinc Zeolite Incorporation on Some Properties of Condensation Silicone Impression Material
...Show More Authors

Background: elastomeric impression materials are indicated when a high degree of accuracy is required, due to their excellent properties like details reproduction, dimensional stability and tear strength but with main two disadvantages those are their hydrophilicity as well as the absence of antibacterial activity. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of incorporation of 0.5% wt Ag-Zn zeolite into condensation silicone through the following tests; setting time, dimensional stability, reproduction of details, wettability, and hardness . Materials and methods: one hundred specimens were constructed of condensation silicone, divided into two groups for the first 50 specimens one0.5% by wt Ag -Zn zeolite was added, keeping the other fifty sp

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref (5)
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Economic Research
Credit derivatives: Do they matter to avoid credit exposure? (Some evidences from the US market)
...Show More Authors

Credit derivatives (CDs) have been increasingly acknowledged as an important requirement to hedge and transfer credit risk CR. Nonetheless, they have been extensively criticized for destabilizing the whole economic system bringing about the latest subprime credit crisis. The study’s main aim is to investigate the reason for the use of (CDs), whether it is used for hedging or trade purpose, for four of the US international financial institutions that had made it through the 2007 crisis to resume functioning post-crisis. This will be for three different and critical periods, namely the pre, during and after crisis periods (Q1, 2000-Q1, 2014). Adopting the SUR technique, the investigation of the factors that influence the net position of (CD

... Show More
Scopus (1)
Scopus
Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In vitro antimicrobial activity of total sesquiterpene lactones and phenols isolated from some Iraqi plants
...Show More Authors

The antimicrobial potency of the crude ethanolic extracts from different Iraqi plants were evaluated . Further more, total sesquiterpene lactones and phenolic compounds were isolated and their antimicrobial activity attempted. The results indicated that crude extracts have no activity except that of Callistemon lanceolatus. Also, the sesquiterpene lactones and phenolic compounds isolated from Callistemon lanceolatus were the most significant antimicrobial active constituents of the studied plants.

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref