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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 11 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Determination the concentrations of radon gas and exhalation rate in some phosphate fertilizer using CR-39 track detector
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study the effect of gamma radiation on the some properties of glass and glass-ceramic immobilize nuclear waste
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Vitrifications process one of the important methods to immobilize nuclear waste.  In this research nuclear waste (Strontium Oxides) with molecular weight (5%) was immobilized by vitrification methods in two types of borosilicate glass (c-type) which are glass and glass-ceramics. To investigate the physical, chemical and mechanical properties of glass and glass-ceramic after immobilize nuclear waste these samples irradiated by gamma ray radiation. Co-60 was used as gamma a irradiation with dose rate 0.38 kGy/hr for different period of time. It’s found that gamma radiation affected the glass and glass-ceramic properties. From phase analysis by the x-ray diffraction for glass-ceramic samples proved that at doses 343kGy change the cry

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectral Study and Theoretical Treatment of Some Mixing Ligand Complexes of Quinaldic Acid and 1, 10-Phenathroline
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Metal complexes of Cu (II), Fe (III) and Mn (II) with Quinaldic acid (L1) and 1, 10-Phenathroline (L2) are synthesized and characterized by standaral physic- chemical procedures (element analysis, metal analysis, FTIR, Uv-Vis, magnetic moment and conductometeric measurements). On the base of these studies, mononuclear and six coordinated octahedral geometry and nonelectrolyte of these complexes have been proposed. The standard heat of formation (?Hºf) and binding energy (?Eb) for the free ligands and their complexes are calculated by using the PM3 method at 273K of Hyperchem.-8 program. The complexes are more stable than their ligands. Moreover, the electrostatic potential of free ligands are measured to investigate the reactive site of th

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
The impact of compound exercises in the development of some of the skills of the players football halls
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 19 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
EFFECT OF TWO HARROWING SYSTEMS ON DECOMPOSITION OF ORGANIC MATTER, SOME SOIL PROPERTIES, GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY OF MAIZE
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A field experiment was conducted at Abu-Ghrib during 2013- 2014 season to study the effect of harrowing systems on the decomposition and fermentation on organic matter(OM) when added and mixed with the soil under special technology, as well as its effect on the growth parameters and productivity of (Zea mays L. 5018). The experiment was laid out using factorial randomized complete block design (RCBD) in split-split design with three replications in SCL bare soil with a percent of moisture ranged from 16 – 18 %. The main plots were designated to the two systems of harrowing (Rotary Harrowand Disc Harrow ). The sub main plots were specified for two organic matters ( Sheep manure ,cow manure ) . Data were statistically analyzed, and

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicología Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Issn 1886-8576, Vol. 17, Nº. 5, 2022, Págs. 323-327
Comparison Of Some Kinematic Variables Of The Triple Jump Between The Two World Championships (IAAF) (2017) And (2018)
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Autorías: Mustafa Abdulamir Hussain, Ahmed Sebeaatea Almujamay, Riyadh khaleel khammas. Localización: Revista iberoamericana de psicología del ejercicio y el deporte. Nº. 5, 2022. Artículo de Revista en Dialnet.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Revista Iberoamericana De Psicología Del Ejercicio Y El Deporte, Issn 1886-8576, Vol. 17, Nº. 6, 2022, Págs. 416-418
The Effect Of Katsu Exercises On Some Abilities Of Strength And Achievement Of Advanced Weight Lifters, Baghdad Clubs
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Autorías: Ghassan Adeeb Abdulhasan, Talib Faisal Shnawa, Yasir Wajih Qaddoori. Localización: Revista iberoamericana de psicología del ejercicio y el deporte. Nº. 6, 2022. Artículo de Revista en Dialnet.

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Scopus
Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Game – Like Exercises on the Development of Some Physical Abilities and Fundamental skills In Futsal
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 16 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Consecutive Case Study of Detraining On Some Functional, Physical, Body and Compound Skills Variables In Advance Basketball Players
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Contribution of Some Managerial Accounting Techniques to Achieve Market Share Requirements / Applied researchin the Al-Muthanna Cement Company
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The research aims to achieve market share requirements and reach the targeted competitive price through the application of management accounting techniques represented by continuous improvement technique and target costing under an Activity Based Cost (ABC) system and Activity Based Management (ABM), In Muthanna Cement Company to reach the rationalization of the cost of the product and maintain the required quality and improve the profitability of the company.

The problem of research has emerged in the inability of local firms to enter into effective competition with other companies operating in the same economic sector, Because of the high cost of its products, Which led to the sale of the product at prices below its cost, and t

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