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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2016
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Context and its impact on the choice of Quranic singularity An applied study in some verses of repetition
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The research dealt with the study of choice between a range of different words between the repetitive texts in the verses of the Koran and explain the reason behind this choice, and how the context has the greatest impact in this choice, and that each word in the Koran was placed in the most appropriate place, which can not be replaced by equivalent words, whatever The degree of similarity between them in the indication of the other because it remains at the end that each of those vocabulary synonyms are indicative, the first of them especially that makes the possibility of replacing them with the equivalent vocabulary impossible, and the second general significance and this connotation makes them share with their peers In one aspect of

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 13 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The effect of methanol and water plant extracts of Cordia myxa on Some pathogenitic bacteria and Candida albicans
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this study aimed to study the effect of Cordia myxa extract on the growth and activities of the following types of bacteria : Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Proteus Spp., Klebsiella pneumoniae , Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes , Bacillus subtilus, and the yeast Candida albicans .the results showed an inhibitory effect of the methanol extract on both the growth and activity of the tested microbes .this was reflected by the minimum inhibitory concentration ( MIC ) of different type of bacteria and the yeast.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of the effect of addition of polyester fiber on some mechanical properties of heat cure acrylic resin
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Background: This study aimed to evaluate the effect addition of polyester fibers on the some mechanical properties of heat cured acrylic resin (implant strength, flexural strength and hardness) Materials and methods: Ninety specimens were used in the study. Thirty specimens were used for impact strength measurements (80mm X 10mm X 4mm) length, width and thickness respectively. The specimens divided into three test groups (n=10), first group formed from heat cure acrylic resin without fiber reinforcement. Second group was formed from heat cure acrylic resin was reinforced with 2 mm length polyester fiber and third group was formed from heat cure acrylic resin reinforced with 4mm length polyester fiber, impact strength measured by impact test

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Archives Of Razi Institute
The Effect of Active Compounds and Trace Elements Extracted from Artemisia Fruit on Some Liver Enzymes in Humans
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Artemisia is a perennial wild shrub with large branches and compound leaves. Artemisia contains about 400 types, and its medical importance is due to the presence of many active substances and compounds such as volatile oils, alkaloids and flavonoids, glycosides, saponins, tannins, and coumarins. This study was designed to study the effect of the aqueous extract of the fruit of the Artemisia plant on the organs of the body, as well as to know its ability to activate the hepatic enzyme alanine transaminase (ALT/GPT). The fruit of this shrub was extracted using the measurement technique gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MASS) and organic solvent hexane and ethyl acetate in one to one ratio. It contained 21 compounds, a high percentage

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation of Polymeric Composites from Polypropylene and Palm Fronds and the Study of Some of Their Physical Properties
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Abstract:
              In this study a type of polymeric composites from melting poly propylene as a basic substance with Palm fronds powder were prepared. Evaluation of polymeric composites was done by studying some of it is mechanical properties, which included:Yong modulus (E), Impact Strength (I.S), Brinell hardness (B.H) and Compression Strength (C.S). The polymeric composites were studied before and after reinforcment by comparing between them. There was an increase in resistance of Yong modulus (E), Impact Strength (I.S), Brinell hardness (B.H) and compression Strength (C.S). Also, the effect of some acids were studied such as (HCl, H2

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Some Indicators of Learning Difficulties and their Relationship to the Self-Concept of Elementary School Students (Case Study)
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The aim of the research is to identify learning difficulties and their role in children's perception of self-concept. The researcher adopted the descriptive and analytical approach method in this study. A questionnaire was designed by the researcher to collect some related information such as biodata, family, health, diagnostic and behavioral patterns of the case. In addition, the researcher adopted the scale of learning difficulties for elementary school students prepared by Zaidan Ahmed Al-Sartawi (1995), the scale of student appreciation for the survey of learning difficulties for primary school students by Michael Best, which was translated to the Arabic language by (Saeed Abdullah Debis). The researcher adopted also the Self-Concept

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 11 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Determination the concentrations of radon gas and exhalation rate in some phosphate fertilizer using CR-39 track detector
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 24 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Study the effect of gamma radiation on the some properties of glass and glass-ceramic immobilize nuclear waste
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Vitrifications process one of the important methods to immobilize nuclear waste.  In this research nuclear waste (Strontium Oxides) with molecular weight (5%) was immobilized by vitrification methods in two types of borosilicate glass (c-type) which are glass and glass-ceramics. To investigate the physical, chemical and mechanical properties of glass and glass-ceramic after immobilize nuclear waste these samples irradiated by gamma ray radiation. Co-60 was used as gamma a irradiation with dose rate 0.38 kGy/hr for different period of time. It’s found that gamma radiation affected the glass and glass-ceramic properties. From phase analysis by the x-ray diffraction for glass-ceramic samples proved that at doses 343kGy change the cry

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectral Study and Theoretical Treatment of Some Mixing Ligand Complexes of Quinaldic Acid and 1, 10-Phenathroline
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Metal complexes of Cu (II), Fe (III) and Mn (II) with Quinaldic acid (L1) and 1, 10-Phenathroline (L2) are synthesized and characterized by standaral physic- chemical procedures (element analysis, metal analysis, FTIR, Uv-Vis, magnetic moment and conductometeric measurements). On the base of these studies, mononuclear and six coordinated octahedral geometry and nonelectrolyte of these complexes have been proposed. The standard heat of formation (?Hºf) and binding energy (?Eb) for the free ligands and their complexes are calculated by using the PM3 method at 273K of Hyperchem.-8 program. The complexes are more stable than their ligands. Moreover, the electrostatic potential of free ligands are measured to investigate the reactive site of th

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 19 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
The impact of compound exercises in the development of some of the skills of the players football halls
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