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jeasiq-1824
Applying some hybrid models for modeling bivariate time series assuming different distributions for random error with a practical application
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Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous variables (GARCHX) are applied to analyze and capture the volatility that occurs in the conditional variance of a linear model. Since time series observations rarely have linear or nonlinear components in nature or usually included together. Therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to employ the hybrid model technique according to Zhang methodology for hybrid models to combine the linear forecasts of the best linear model of ARMAX models and the nonlinear forecasts of the best nonlinear models of (ARCH, GARCH & GARCHX) models and thus increase the efficiency and accuracy of performance forecasting future values of the time series.

This paper is concerned with the modeling and building of the hybrid models (ARMAX-GARCH) and (ARMAX-GARCHX), assuming three different random error distributions: Gaussian distribution, Student-t distribution, as well as the general error distribution and the last two distributions were applied for the purpose of capturing the characteristics of heavy tail distributions which have a Leptokurtic characteristic compared to the normal distribution. This research adopted a modern methodology in estimating the parameters of the hybrid model namely the (two-step procedure) methodology. In the first stage, the parameters of the linear model were estimated using three different methods: The Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS), the Recursive Least Square Method with Exponential Forgetting Factor (RLS-EF), and the Recursive Prediction Error Method (RPM). In the second stage, the parameters of the nonlinear model were estimated using the MLE method and employing the numerical improvement algorithm (BHHH algorithm).

 

 

 

The hybrid models have been applied for modeling the relationship between the exogenous time series represented by the exchange rate and the endogenous time series represented by the unemployment rate in the USA for the period from (January 2000 to December 2017 i.e. 216 observations), and also the out-of-sample forecasts of unemployment rate in the last twelve values of (2018). The forecasting performance of the hybrid models and the competing individual model was also evaluated using the loss function accuracy measures (MAPE), (MAE), and the robust (Q-LIKE). Based on statistical measurements, the results showed the hybrid models improved the accuracy and efficiency of the single model. () hybrid model error whose conditional variance follows a GED distribution is the optimal model in modeling the bivariate time series data under study and more efficient in the forecasting process compared with the individual model and the hybrid model. This is due to having the lowest values for accuracy measures. Different software packages (MATLAB (2018a), SAS 9.1, R 3.5.2 and EViews 9) were used to analyze the data under consideration.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 15 2012
Journal Name
Talanta
Molecularly imprinted polymer as sorbent in micro-solid phase extraction of ochratoxin A in coffee, grape juice and urine
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A simple, environmental friendly and selective sample preparation technique employing porous membrane protected micro-solid phase extraction (μ-SPE) loaded with molecularly imprinted polymer (MIP) for the determination of ochratoxin A (OTA) is described. After the extraction, the analyte was desorbed using ultrasonication and was analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography. Under the optimized conditions, the detection limits of OTA for coffee, grape juice and urine were 0.06 ng g−1, 0.02 and 0.02 ng mL−1, respectively while the quantification limits were 0.19 ng g−1, 0.06 and 0.08 ng mL−1, respectively. The recoveries of OTA from coffee spiked at 1, 25 and 50 ng g−1, grape juice and urine samples at 1, 25 and 50 ng mL

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 03 2024
Journal Name
Functional Foods In Health And Disease
A comparative study of the effect of extracts extracted from Ocimum basilicum leaves using organic extract and essential oil
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Background: Medicinal plants that possess antimicrobial and antioxidant properties have garnered significant attention for their role in maintaining food quality, improving safety, and impeding spoilage. They also can aid in controlling food contamination risks and augmenting the nutritional value of foods. Objective: The study aimed to obtain botanical extracts possessing antimicrobial capabilities and use them to inhibit the growth of molds and yeasts. Additionally, these extracts are aimed at prolonging product shelf life by harnessing their antioxidant attributes. Methods: Several microorganisms, including E. coli and Pseudomonas, were subjected to testing. Ethanolic alcohol, chloroform, and essential oil extracts were prepared;

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Analysis of actuarial experience and acceptance of individual life insurance: A case study in the Iraqi General Insurance Company
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This research seeks through the adoption of two basic variables, where he considered the actuarial experience as an independent variable, while the process of accepting the risk and dimensions related to it is a dependent variable, the research was adopted to present the data achieved by the company during the life insurance business during the adoption of actuarial experience at the beginning of its work where Adoption of the historical method in the analysis of those data to prove the researcher's opinion, through the analysis of data (5 years) for the first period, which extends between (1975-1979), the period during which the company adopted the actuarial experience at the time, also taken data for the same dimensions related to the

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Publication Date
Mon May 23 2022
Journal Name
The International Journal Of Artificial Organs
Quantitative analysis and control of the torque profile of the upper limb using a kinetic model and motion measurements
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This paper investigates a new approach to the rapid control of an upper limb exoskeleton actuator. We used a mathematical model and motion measurements of a human arm to estimate joint torque as a means to control the exoskeleton’s actuator. The proposed arm model is based on a two-pendulum configuration and is used to obtain instantaneous joint torques which are then passed into control law to regulate the actuator torque. Nine subjects volunteered to take part in the experimental protocol, in which inertial measurement units (IMUs) and a digital goniometer were used to measure and estimate the torque profiles. To validate the control law, a Simscape model was developed to simulate the arm model and control law in which measurem

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 07 2015
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A comparative study to determine the nature of the eye lens protein in the two types of birds Iraqi
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The study showed significant differences between the average weight lens and the average amount protein in the lens between that Kestrel Falco tinnunculus L. and the Collared Dove Streptopelia decaocto F. , also the study electrical migration of lens proteins having one bundle of crystalline –? in Kestrel compared with three bundles in Collared Dove, two bundles of crystalline – ? in both , and crystalline – ? appeared as one bundle in both birds.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
representations of body language in the contemporary Iraqi theatrical show "Imagine That as a model": عمار عبد سلمان محمد
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There is no doubt that each of the arts has a material from which the aesthetic achievement is built, so the researcher found that the art of theater, especially the show, whose artistic achievement is based on the body of the actor who emits the formal language (body language), is the focus of interest and active presence, because the body possesses its spiritual qualities that made him and the ability to The formation of things by (his body language), so the researcher studied this theatrical phenomenon and divided it into four chapters. In the first chapter, the research problem included the following question: (Is there a phenomenon of body language in the contemporary theatrical show "Imagine that" as a model) so It is of cognitive

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Regeneration of Pain, Touch, Cold, and Warmth, sensations in split thickness human skin grafts in adults (A clinical study)
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Back ground: Skin grafting is the most common form
of reconstructive surgery, and regeneration of
sensations in skin grafts is a complex process
influenced by many factors such as , the thickness of
the graft, the depth of the grafted bed, meshing of the
graft, the condition of the bed and the surrounding
area. So many studies performed on this subject, some
of them clinically based on subjective type of sensation
tests, and others histological to detect the presence of
nerve fibers in the grafted skin
Objectives: To detect return of sensations to split
thickness skin grafts by clinical methods.
Methods: From Oct. 1995 to Oct. 2010, a clinical
prospective study performed in Al wasity Hospital for

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Preparation, characterization and preliminary cytotoxic evaluation of 6-mercaptopurine-coated biotinylated carbon dots nanoparticles as a drug delivery system
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Employment and Labor Union Laws in Japan between the 1889 and 1946 Constitutions: A Comparative Study: أفراح محمد علي
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This research is based on the descriptive and analytical methodology. The importance of studying labor laws and labor unions in Japan between 1889 and 1946 constitutions is because Japan was out of a feudal phase, and had no idea about the factory system and industrialization in their modern sense before the Meiji era. Generally, its labor system used to be mostly familial, and the economic system was based on agriculture. This called for the enactment of legislations and laws appropriate for the coming phase in Meiji era. Thus, this paper examines the role of Meiji government in enacting labor legislations and laws when he came to power in 1896, and his new constitution in 1889 and the civil code of 1896. It further examines the way Mei

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 30 2012
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Necessity of Teaching Diabetic Patients the Correct way of Insulin Administration: A Clinical Trial to Improve Glycemic Control
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Background: It is important to achieve good glycemic control to avoid long-term diabetic complications. It has been largely debated about the role of correct way of insulin administration to get the desired glycemic control.
Objective: To evaluate the effect of teaching diabetic patients who are on insulin therapy the correct way of injecting insulin and its effect on glycemic control.
Methods: A non randomized clinical trial with 820 diabetic patients on insulin therapy on whom A1 c estimation was performed before and after three months of teaching them the right injection technique.
Results : Sixty seven patients (8.17%) had A1 c 6.5% before they were enrolled in the study while the majority (753 patents, 91.82%) had A1 c 6.5%

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