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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
" Forecasting Future Cash Flows Using the Metrics of Cash Flow and the Accounting Return "
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Providing useful information in estimating the amount and timing and the degree of uncertainty concerning the future cash flows is one of the three main objectives of the financial reporting system, which is done through the main financial statements. The interest on standard-setting bodies in the forecasting of future cash flows, especially Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) explain under Accounting Standard (1) of the year 1978 "Objectives of Financial Reporting by Business Enterprises", paragraph (37) thereof that accounting profits better than cash flows when forecasting future cash flows, In contrast, IAS (7) as amended in 1992 aims to compel economic units to prepare statement of c

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The value of work to the Elits of prophets and its influence on cultural construction
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Praise be to Allah and peace and blessings be upon our Prophet Muhammad and on his family and companions
Yet,
The prophets (peace be upon them) urged all thevalues and one of these is the value of work which is of a great importance, that all nations have gathered against us as the eaters gather at a bowl. One of the reasons of our weakness and the strength of our enemy is that we have neglected the value of work. And rather a large number of ignorant and uneducatedpeople started to believe that the means of living, triumph, gaining power, and establishing a civilization are given by Allah with neithergainingnoreffort from us. While we find in the past that Allah the Almighty narrated to us the story of Mary (Peace be upon her) and

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first
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The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Construction of Phenytoin Selective Electrodes and Its Application to Pharmaceutical Preparation
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Phenytoin selective electrodes were constructed based on penytoin-phosphotungstate (Ph-PT) complex with different plasticizers; di-butyl phosphate (DBP), tri-butyl phosphate (TBP), di-butyl phthalate (DBPH),and o-nitro phenyl octyl ether (NPOE) phthalate. The electrodes based on DBPH, ONPOE plasticizers gave Narnistain slope which are, 56.4 and 55.3mV/decade with detection limit of 1.9x10-5 M , 1.8x10-5 and concentration range 10-1 to 10-4 M and pH range 3.0 – 8.0. The electrodes based on TBP and DBP showed non-Nernistain slopes, 40.2,40.5 mV/decade for both plasticizers. Interfering of some cations was investigated and shows no interfering with electrodes response. Potentiometric methods were used for measuring phenytion in

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Use Risk Score Method to Identify the Qualitative Risk Analysis Criteria in Tendering Phase in Construction Projects
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The purpose of this article was to identify and assess the importance of risk factors in the tendering phase of construction projects. The construction project cannot succeed without the identification and categorization of these risk elements. In this article, a questionnaire for likelihood and impact was designed and distributed to a panel of specialists to analyze risk factors. The risk matrix was also used to research, explore, and identify the risks that influence the tendering phase of construction projects. The probability and impact values assigned to risk are used to calculate the risk's score. A risk matrix is created by combining probability and impact criteria. To determine the main risk elements for the tend

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Use Risk Score Method to Identify the Qualitative Risk Analysis Criteria in Tendering Phase in Construction Projects
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The purpose of this article was to identify and assess the importance of risk factors in the tendering phase of construction projects. The construction project cannot succeed without the identification and categorization of these risk elements. In this article, a questionnaire for likelihood and impact was designed and distributed to a panel of specialists to analyze risk factors. The risk matrix was also used to research, explore, and identify the risks that influence the tendering phase of construction projects. The probability and impact values assigned to risk are used to calculate the risk's score. A risk matrix is created by combining probability and impact criteria. To determine the main risk elements for the tender phase of

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determination Of The Efficient Production Plans For Al-Shaheed Public Company By Using Tatget Motad Model Under Risk And Uncertainty
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The research aims to derive the efficient industrial plans for Al – shaheed public company under risk by using Target MOTAD as a linear alternative  model for the quadratic programming models.

The results showed that there had been a sort of (trade- off) between risk and the expected gross margins. And if the studied company strives to get high gross margin, it should tolerate risk and vice versa. So the management  of Al- Shaheed Company to be invited to apply the suitable procedures in the production process, in order to get efficient plans that improves it's  performance .

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 27 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
An Integrated Approach to Constraints Theory and Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) in Construction Projects (Case Study)
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The research endeavors to harness the benefits stemming from the integration of constraint theory into construction project management, with the primary goal of mitigating project completion delays. Additionally, it employs fuzzy analysis to determine the relative significance of fundamental constraints within projects by assigning them appropriate weights. The research problem primarily revolves around two key issues. Firstly, the persistent utilization of outdated methodologies and a heavy reliance on workforce experience without embracing modern computerized technologies. Secondly, the recurring problem of project delivery delays. Construction projects typically encompass five fundamental constraint types: cost restrictions, tim

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
On the Use of the First-Person Pronoun ‘we’ in Final-Year Master Projects of South Algerian EFL Students
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Literature on the use of the first-person pronoun in abstracts and conclusion sections of final-year projects is limited. In case of Algerian Master students, it is too scant. The present paper aims at filling this gap through a study concerned with students’ and engagement in their final projects (memoirs). This quantitative study examines the use of “we” and its various types, “our- us-I, my, the researcher” in memoirs chosen at random from the d-space portal of the University of Adrar, southern Algeria. Sixty-five papers, submitted in the fields of Linguistics or didactics between 2015 and 2020 and representing nearly half of the whole memoirs’ depository at the library’s d-space, constituted the corpus of study. The des

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Organization, Technology And Management In Construction: An International Journal
Using the ordinal priority approach for selecting the contractor in construction projects
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Abstract<p>Effective decision-making process is the basis for successfully solving any engineering problem. Many decisions taken in the construction projects differ in their nature due to the complex nature of the construction projects. One of the most crucial decisions that might result in numerous issues over the course of a construction project is the selection of the contractor. This study aims to use the ordinal priority approach (OPA) for the contractor selection process in the construction industry. The proposed model involves two computer programs; the first of these will be used to evaluate the decision-makers/experts in the construction projects, while the second will be used to formul</p> ... Show More
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