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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Examining the Values and Principles of Agile Construction Management in Iraqi Construction Projects
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The avoidance of failure in construction projects is not an easy task, which makes the failure of the construction project to achieve its objectives a major problem experienced by all countries in the world, especially Iraq. Where nearly two-thirds of the construction projects in the world have been suffered by significant problems as an increase in the cost of the project, delay in the specified duration for execution, and stopping the project. Therefore it is required to study and apply new methods for managing the construction project to ensure its success and achieve its objectives. The aim of this study is to study the Agile project management method and its impact on the construction project. In addition, to identi

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Water security in Basra Study economic reality and prospects for future water
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It  can be said that the Security of water  in  Basra from the visual task vital strategic issues of concern to the attention of researchers in various attributions and those interested in water, environmental, economic, social, cultural and political affairs ... etc. This view of the great importance of the issue of water in the occupied Basra, which is characterized by parochialism and scarcity, When looking at the sources of our daily lives and in our reality today. We find that millions of people living on the two main exporters Tabaaan oil and water. And depleted oil wealth However Manfred him the most attention because we entered it surpasses all other sources of income, but is not it a littl

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Time and finance optimization model for multiple construction projects using genetic algorithm
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Abstract<p>Construction contractors usually undertake multiple construction projects simultaneously. Such a situation involves sharing different types of resources, including monetary, equipment, and manpower, which may become a major challenge in many cases. In this study, the financial aspects of working on multiple projects at a time are addressed and investigated. The study considers dealing with financial shortages by proposing a multi-project scheduling optimization model for profit maximization, while minimizing the total project duration. Optimization genetic algorithm and finance-based scheduling are used to produce feasible schedules that balance the finance of activities at any time w</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences
Using modified earned value for cost control in construction projects
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict the Sweetness of Bananas at Different Drying Times
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Publication Date
Mon May 06 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict the Sweetness of Bananas at Different Drying Times
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The consumption of dried bananas has increased because they contain essential nutrients. In order to preserve bananas for a longer period, a drying process is carried out, which makes them a light snack that does not spoil quickly. On the other hand, machine learning algorithms can be used to predict the sweetness of dried bananas. The article aimed to study the effect of different drying times (6, 8, and 10 hours) using an air dryer on some physical and chemical characteristics of bananas, including CIE-L*a*b, water content, carbohydrates, and sweetness. Also predicting the sweetness of dried bananas based on the CIE-L*a*b ratios using machine learn- ing algorithms RF, SVM, LDA, KNN, and CART. The results showed that increasing the drying

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Future trends of the insurance sector in the integration of public insurance companies in Iraq And its impact on the quality of insurance service: Applied Study in the Iraqi General Insurance Company and the National Insurance Company
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     This study research to Showing The impact of the integration process on the quality of Insurance service and analyze the impact financially to determine whether there is any impact on the quality of the insurance service, in addition to identifying the obstacles that impede the merger between the insurance companies, insurance and the appropriate proposals for its' application and benefit from the benefits achieved.

The importance of The study lies in the fact that it is an important and vital spotlight that is becoming increasingly important in the world to confront the various difficulties and crises that have occurred  recently in light of the liberalization of international trade, globalization a

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

  

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Dumping and Its Challenges in Extent of World Trade Organization "Models for selected Agricultural Goods"
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The subject of dumping is considering today one of the subjects in which form an obstruction arise in front of the cycle of growth for some countries , such as the study of dumping is capturing a large attention by the competent because either a big  role and effect in growing the economies of nations then the subject of dumping became a field turn around its sides many measures and laws … and may be done resorting to by many states of the world to anti-dumping as approach of determent weapon delimit  the impact of dumping and gives the national agriculture sector the opportunity for rising and growing so this section of international economics is capturing a special importance and represent in same time an important

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Brokerage Firms under Information Asymmetry and its Effect on Common Stock Trade : Applied Research in the Iraq Stock Exchange
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The research aims to Applied Study in the nature of the impact of information asymmetry for brokerage firms in the common stock trading, The research included the theoretical concepts associated with each of the brokerage firms ,information asymmetry and common stock trading, It used the financial methods on the practical side of the information asymmetry for brokerage firms based in the sector as well as trading volume and spread for common stock , The community of the research included the Iraq Stock Exchange,the sample of research the companies listed which have been trading on its stock for the period August 2015 until December 2015 as well as brokerage firms

amounting to 47 brokerage firm. The resea

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