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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Practice Periodical On Structural Design And Construction
Utilizing Emerging Technologies for Construction Safety Risk Mitigation
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 05 2021
Journal Name
Solid State Technology
Genetic Algorithms in Construction Project Management: A Review
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Genetic algorithms (GA) are a helpful instrument for planning and controlling the activities of a project. It is based on the technique of survival of the fittest and natural selection. GA has been used in different sectors of construction and building however that is rarely documented. This research aimed to examine the utilisation of genetic algorithms in construction project management. For this purpose, the research focused on the benefits and challenges of genetic algorithms, and the extent to which genetic algorithms is utilised in construction project management. Results showed that GA provides an ability of generating near optimal solutions which can be adopted to reduce complexity in project management and resolve difficult problem

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Using spatial analysis techniques to Preparing maps for distribution of pollutant concentrations in Shatt al-Arab waters in November 2015
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Water has a great self-generating capacity that can neutralize the polluting interventions carried out by humans. However, if human activities continue this uncontrolled and unsustainable exploitation of this resource, this regenerating capacity shall fail and it will be jeopardized definitively. Shatt Al-Arab River in South of Iraq. It has an active role in providing water for irrigation, industry, domestic use and a commercial gateway to Iraq. in the last five years Shatt Al-Arab suffered from a rise in pollutants due to the severe decline in sewage networks, irregular networks and pesticide products, as well as the outputs of factories and companies that find their way to water sources and lead to a widespread collapse of water quality.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 13 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Reducing False Notification in Identifying Malicious Application Programming Interface(API) to Detect Malwares Using Artificial Neural Network with Discriminant Analysis
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 This paper argues the accuracy of behavior based detection systems, in which the Application Programming Interfaces (API) calls are analyzed and monitored. The work identifies the problems that affecting the accuracy of such detection models. The work was extracted (4744) API call through analyzing. The new approach provides an accurate discriminator and can reveal malicious API in PE malware up to 83.2%. Results of this work evaluated with Discriminant Analysis

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Ultrasonic Technique to Measure Some Petrophysical Properties of Yamama Formation at Ratawi-7 Oil Well Core Samples, Southern Iraq
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Twenty nine core samples were taken from Ratawi 7 Oil well according to the presence of oil in formation and availability of core samples. This well is located in the province of Basra/southern Iraq. The samples were collected from Yamama Formation. The core samples are taken from the well at different depths, ranging between (3663m-3676m). The range of Vp for these core samples is (668-4017 m/sec) and its average is (1779 m/sec), While the range of Vs is (291-1854 m/sec) and its average is (796 m/sec). In the current study the ultrasonic method is conducted to measure Vp, Vs as well as some petrophysical properties for core samples and some elastic moduli such as (Young's modulus, Bulk modulus, Shear modulus, Poisson's ratio and Lame's

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci.
Reducing False Notification in Identifying Malicious Application Programming Interface(API) to Detect Malwares Using Artificial Neural Network with Discriminant Analysis
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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Medicine And Life
Antimicrobial photodynamic therapy using a low-power 650 nm laser to inhibit oral Candida albicans activity: an in vitro study
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Using spatial analysis techniques to Preparing maps for distribution of pollutant concentrations in Shatt al-Arab waters in November 2015
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Abstract<p>Water has a great self-generating capacity that can neutralize the polluting interventions carried out by humans. However, if human activities continue this uncontrolled and unsustainable exploitation of this resource, this regenerating capacity shall fail and it will be jeopardized definitively. Shatt Al-Arab River in South of Iraq. It has an active role in providing water for irrigation, industry, domestic use and a commercial gateway to Iraq. in the last five years Shatt Al-Arab suffered from a rise in pollutants due to the severe decline in sewage networks, irregular networks and pesticide products, as well as the outputs of factories and companies that find their way to water sou</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Evaluating the phenomenological approach models in predicting the Neutron Induced Deuteron Emission Spectra from Different reactions
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A neutron induced deuteron emission spectra and double differential cross-sections (DDX), in 27Al (n, D) 26Mg, 51V (n, D)50Ti , 54Fe ( n, D)53Mn and 63Cu (n, D) 62Ni reactions, have been investigated using the phenomenological approach model of Kalbach. The pre-equilibrium stage of the compound nucleus formation is considered the main pivot in the discription of cross-section, while the equilibrium (pick up or knock out ) process is analyzed in the framework of the statistical theory of cluster reactions, Feshbach, Kerman, and Koonin (FKK) model. To constrain the applicable parameterization as much as possible and to assess the predictive power of these models, the calculated results have been compared with the experimental data and othe

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