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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Thu May 02 2024
Journal Name
Petroleum And Coal
Wellbore Instability Analysis to Determine the Failure Criteria for Deep Well/H Oilfield
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2025
Journal Name
World Neurosurgery
The Ventriculoperitoneal Shunt Complication Rate in Baghdad Medical City from 2019 to 2022
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Employing Leadership Practices in Educational Institutions According to the Organizational Structure of DNA
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DNA, as the basis of every living cell, is one of the most important and influential scientific discoveries. This research aims to identify and compare the organizational DNA to the leadership practices of school principals in the Sultanate of Oman and to reveal the similarity between principals’ leadership practices and the structure of DNA. In addition, it intends to identify any statistically significant differences between the responses of the participants due to the study variables: gender, job title and experience. A questionnaire was designed and data were collected from a randomly selected sample composed of (100) teachers in the Sultanate of Oman. The study found limitless diversity in the characteristics of DNA of leadership

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of computer textbooks content for preparatory stage according to the logical thinking
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The study aims to analyze computer textbooks content for preparatory stage according to the logical thinking. The researcher followed the descriptive analytical research approach (content analysis), and adopted an explicit idea during the analysis process. One of the content analysis tools which was designed based on mental processes employed during logical thinking has utilized to figure out the study results. The findings revealed that logical thinking skills formed (52%) in fourth preparatory textbook and (47%) in fifth preparatory textbook.     

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Auditing the comprehensive electronic banking system to detect operational business risks (applied research)
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Abstract:

                In light of the development in the banking environment and the increasing reliance on electronic systems in providing banking services and due to the intense competition witnessed by the banking sector, the need has emerged to apply the comprehensive electronic banking system, which works on the Internet in providing new and diverse banking services regardless of time and place by linking all branches to one central database, and despite the advantages achieved from the application of the comprehensive system, there is a set of risks that accompany the use of that system, What requires the auditors to develop the audit method in line with the size of the development in the

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 11 2023
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الامام الاعظم
Provisions for inheritance of agricultural lands (transfer of the right to dispose of)
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Agricultural lands have great importance in people's lives, and their exploitation has a great impact on strengthening the national economy. Therefore, countries have given great importance to this sector, and because of the importance of this sector, the state has given large areas of these lands to the farmers to invest in agriculture, and among these farmers are those who died and left behind children who took up crafts. Agriculture, for fear that these agricultural lands would be abandoned and turned into waste lands, a land system was introduced called (regular distribu- tion), which corresponds to (legitimate inheritance). Under this system, these lands were trans- ferred to the children of farmers who died so that the process of inve

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 06 2011
Journal Name
Fes Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Derivation of a New Equation to Obtain the Permeability Coefficient of Clayey Soils
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The main objective of this research is to find the coefficient of permeability (k) of the soil and especially clayey soil by finding the degree of consolidation (rate of consolidation). New modify procedure is proposed by using the odometer (consolidation) device. The ordinary conventional permeability test usually takes a long time by preparing and by testing and this could cause some problems especially if there is a need to do a large number of this test and there were a limited number of technicians and/or apparatus. From this point of view the importance of this research is clear, since the modified procedure will require a time of 25 minute only. Derivation made to produce an equation which could be used to fined the permeabi

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Roughness Coefficient in Euphrates River Reach between Haditha Dam to Ramadi Barrage
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Accurate computation of the roughness coefficient is important in the studies of open channel flow. To measure and identify the hydraulic characteristics of the flow system, the model simulation is necessary to study and get the results of the hydraulic properties to specify Manning coefficient of the Euphrates River. In this study, the reach is extended along the Euphrates River from Haditha Dam to Ramadi Barrage with a distance of 169km. The HEC-RAS model was implemented to simulate the flow within the study reach. The geometry of the river was represented by more than two hundred cross-sections surveyed in 2013 and 2021. The model was calibrated using some observed discharges at the Heet gage station for records of th

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Evaluation to the level of some inflammatory markers in hypothyroid insulin resistant patients
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Hypothyroidism is a condition in which thyroid hormones levels decreased in the blood. These hormones are necessary for energy production and body viability. In many occasions this condition is accompanied or followed by different metabolic disorders. The current study is conducted in the "Specialized center for endocrinology and diabetes" and carried on 70 hypothyroid patients and 60 randomly chosen individuals with normal thyroid function .Both groups were submitted to laboratory tests to evaluate thyroid function (T3,T4.TSH). The study involved evaluation of the relationship between hypothyroidism and insulin resistance (IR) . Health problem related to many diseases , became common lately. Insulin resistance diagnosed through

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 16 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Computer Science And Mathematics
Some Methods to Estimate the Parameters of Generalized Exponential Rayleigh Model by Simulation
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This paper shews how to estimate the parameter of generalized exponential Rayleigh (GER) distribution by three estimation methods. The first one is maximum likelihood estimator method the second one is moment employing estimation method (MEM), the third one is rank set sampling estimator method (RSSEM)The simulation technique is used for all these estimation methods to find the parameters for generalized exponential Rayleigh distribution. Finally using the mean squares error criterion to compare between these estimation methods to find which of these methods are best to the others

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