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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 21 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Islamic Knowledge and its role in the Development of the Culture and Values of the Islamic Community
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The human perception of science and knowledge is affected by the personal point of view, thus giving it its religious, mental and emotional dimensions to make that perception an effective tool for realizing the truth comprehensively in the delivery of knowledge to the depths of the human soul. The later is composed of multiple factors, which contributes to the human self-development with dimensions beyond the limits of mental logic and the perception of material and emotional situations. That knowledge in the perception of Islamic virtue, which must characterize each Muslim.
Human beings have been striving for knowledge and the understanding of the universe in which they live. For centuries, mankind has acquired knowledge directly an

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Alternative Perspectives in Explaining the Conduct of US Foreign Policy: A Historical-Critical View of Decision-Making Models
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Receipt date:2/17/2021 acceptance date:3/16/2021 Publishing date:12/31/2021

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Objective: This paper investigates the contradictions in the decision-making process of the United States, which historically proven to be successful policies in the short term, but in the long term proven to be wanting and failure. Methodology: The paper uses descriptive, historical, comparative method. A

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Obstacles to employing social media applications in measuring public opinion
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Media and communication's research are varied in accordance to research approaches' variety which seeks to reach convergent social, psycholo

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Cpwr
Development of a workforce sustainability model for construction
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Professional Safety
How Technology Can Improve OSH Management in Construction
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Periodicals Of Engineering And Natural Sciences (pen)
Safety management in private construction project in Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Risk Response in Construction Project: A Review Study
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Construction projects are characterized as projects with multi phases and activities, complex, unique, and have many different parties and stakeholders. Risks could appear at one or more of the construction project stages and may affect the achievement of project objectives. Therefore, one of the key elements in the planning phase of any project is the risk management process (RMP). This study attempts to understand the terminology of risk in general, risk management, and response to risk in particular. This study is mainly a review of thirty-eight studies that have been published between 1997 and 2020 that demonstrate the importance of the crucial phase of risk response from the risk management process and its impact on

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Risks of Design Stage in Iraqi Construction Project
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The management of construction projects needs to complete the basics of system management and work. Starting from the idea and how to turn it into a full study and ended at the construction project completion arriving at the purpose prepared for it, so the projects need to control on its operation and integration system in order to succeed.

It is no secret for who concerned in construction projects field that the design stage is a very important stage in construction project because it determines the final features of the project through the requirements provided by the employer for the consultant to formulate it during this phase in the form of plans, drawings, and specifications, then translated on the ground as the shape of co

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Financing Cost Optimization in Construction Sector: A Review
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The main aim of this research is to introduce financing cost optimization and different financing alternatives. There are many studies about financing cost optimization. All previous studies considering the cost of financing have many shortcomings, some considered only one source of financing as a credit line without taking into account different financing alternatives. Having only one funding alternative powers, restricts contractors and leads to a very specific financing model. Although it is beneficial for the contractor to use a long-term loan to minimize interest charges and prevent a substantial withdrawal from his credit line, none of the existing financial-based planning models have considered long-term loans in

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