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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 19 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Game Theory to Determine the Optimal Strategy for the Transportation Sector in Iraq
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In this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Using the general budget for the year 2019 to achieve sustainable development in Iraq
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The public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The awareness degree of teacher students in Arabic language department and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future role in knowledge age
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The study aimed to identify the awareness degree of teacher students in the department of Arabic language and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future roles in the age of knowledge. To achieve this objective, descriptive- analytical approach was used. The instruments of this study were two questionnaires: first one consist of (20) item for teacher students, and the second consist of (27) item for educational supervisors which covered three roles: professional, technological, and humanitarian. The sample was (120) student selected randomly, and (39) supervisors of Arabic language. The result revealed that the mean of degree awareness of teacher students and their supervisors of future role are (3.857), (3.472) respectively

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Assessing the Environmental Footprint of the Cement Industry: A Pathway to Sustainable Development
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Abstract<p>Achieving a connection between sustainability processes and environmental protection, or what is known as sustainable development, requires paying more attention to environmental and sustainability issues for various projects and their effects on environmental problems. It involves determining the most appropriate ways to deal with them within pillars of sustainability (environmental, social, economic, and natural resources. As cement is a fundamental component of industrial services and construction in cities, it has a direct and significant interaction with the development process, making it one of the most important industries in Iraq. Because of the clinker particles and combustio</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 08 2024
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology &amp; Applied Science Research
Applying the Analytical Hierarchy Process to Identify the Challenges and Priorities of Reconstruction Projects in Iraq
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Reconstruction project management in the cities of Mosul, Anbar, and Tikrit, in Iraq still faces major obstacles that impede the comprehensive performance of these projects. It is thus necessary to improve the arising challenge estimation in the implementation of reconstruction projects and evaluate their components: time, cost, quality, and scope. This study used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize major and minor criteria in the influential causes of challenges and formulate a mathematical model to help decision-makers estimate them. Using the Super Decisions software, the final results indicated that changes in scope reached 40.8%, which is the greatest difficulty, followed by changes in cost at 27.6%, changes in

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Main Delay Factors of Implementation EPC Construction Projects in Iraq
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This essay aims to highlight the most important issues and difficulties facing implementing large projects that follow the turn-key method, considered one of the types of contractual methods in Iraq, especially for large and complex projects requiring speedy completion. The projects implemented in this way face delays and delays in completion, which led to the lack of benefit from the projects for which they were implemented, especially those affecting the lives of citizens within the health sector. The case study dealt with the construction of hospitals with multi-bed capacities within multiple governorates in Iraq, With large financial allocations within the federal budget of the Government of Iraq over several years.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Examining sensitivity of financial performance at construction projects prequalification stage
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Construction projects are complicated in nature and require many considerations in contractor selection. One of the complicated interactions is that between performance with the project size, and contractor financial status, and size of projects contracted. At the prequalification stage, the financial ‎requirements restrict the ‎contractors to meet minimum limits in financial criteria such as net worth, working capital and ‎annual turnover, etc. In construction projects, however, there are cases when contractors meet these requirements but show low performance in practice. The model used in the study predicts the performance by training of a neural network. The data used in the study are 72 of the most recent roadw

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
الأستاذ
Teaching-learning design according to constructivist theory models and its impact on the achievement of chemistry among second-year intermediate school female students
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 20 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Proposition Framework to Application Kaizen Cost Technique of to realization Target Pricing: Practical Study in the Al-Muthanna Cement Company
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The study the problem emerged in the inability of local companies to enter the field of active competition with other companies operating in the same economic sector due to the high cost of their products, hence, the companies that want to apply this technique can effectively compete in order to achieve those objectives.

  So this study focused on the goal of reducing the cost of products by reducing the cost product to a minimum , as the study was based in its hypothesis on the ability of companies to application this technique which in turn leads to increased profits under conditions of normal working and the power available and their potential in improving the quality of its products, as well as the need for full coordina

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of banking effort tests in the face of monetary credit risk and its impact on the profits and adequacy of the bank’s capital : / a case study of Sumer Commercial Bank for the period from 2015 to 2020
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The research seeks to identify the proposed scenarios to predict and ward off monetary credit risks that the bank is exposed to in the future, using the banking stress tests model, and showing their impact on capital adequacy and profitability ratio,To achieve this purpose, Sumer Commercial Bank was taken as a case study, and mathematical equations were used to extract the results. Low percentage of profits and returns, strictness in the process of granting credit and financing operations in order to reduce credit risks.

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