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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Water Movement through Soil under Drip Irrigation using Different Hydraulic Soil Models
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Drip irrigation is one of the conservative irrigation techniques since it implies supplying water directly on the soil through the emitter; it can supply water and fertilizer directly into the root zone. An equation to estimate the wetted area in unsaturated soil is taking into calculating the water absorption by roots is simulated numerically using HYDRUS (2D/3D) software. In this paper, HYDRUS comprises analytical types of the estimate of different soil hydraulic properties. Used one soil type, sandy loam, with three types of crops; (corn, tomato, and sweet sorghum), different drip discharge, different initial soil moisture content was assumed, and different time durations. The relative error for the different hydrauli

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
The Iraqi Journal Of Agricultural Sciences
A FORMULA TO PREDICT INBREEDING DEPRESSION IN F2 POPULATION OF MAIZE
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A field experiment was conducted on the form of the Dept. of Field Crop Sci. / College of Agriculture / University of Baghdad in spring and fall seasons of 2009 and 2010 . Ten inbreds of maize were planted and crossed to each other to produce single crosses . In the second season, single crosses were planted along with thin parent to produce three – way and double crosses . In the third seasons panet and crosses were planted . Crosses were selfed to produce F2 seeds and increase seeds of inbreds . In the fourth season, all grin types were planted , and their agronomic traits were evaluated . Values of P of inbreds , F1 and F2 were calculated for agronomic traits . The new formula to predict inbreeding depression ( ID ) F2 plant without gr

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Serum Biomarkers are Promising Tools to Predict Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome
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Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is still considered a worldwide leading cause of mortality and morbidity. Within the last decades, different modalities were used to assess severity and outcome including Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), imaging modalities, and even genetic polymorphism, however, determining the prognosis of TBI victims is still challenging requiring the emerging of more accurate and more applicable tools to surrogate other old modalities

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Medical Informatics
An artificial intelligence approach to predict infants’ health status at birth
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Ssrn Electronic Journal
Diagnoses of Delay Causes in Construction Projects During Disaster
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Purpose: The aim of this study was to gain insight into causes of time delays and cost overruns in a selection of thirty case projects in Iraq. Delay factors have been studied in many countries/contexts, but not much data exists from countries under the conditions characterizing Iraq during the last 10-15 years.Design/methodology/approach: A case study approach was adopted, with thirty construction projects selected from the Baghdad region, of different types and sizes. For the case of the study, the participants in the projects provided data about the projects through the data collection tool distributed through the questionnaire directed to them. Statistical data analysis was used to build statistical relationships between time and cost d

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Procurement Management of Power Plants Construction Projects in Iraq
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The government of Iraq states that despite the massive amounts invested in the power generating sector, the country has been plagued by power outages for more than three decades; One of the most common sources of the problem and significant impact on the waste of public funds in contractual processes. The Ministry of Planning issued the sectorial
specialized standard bidding documents (SSBD) of Design, Supply, and Installation of the Electromechanical Works (DSIoEW), which is primarily designed to support the Ministry of Electricity (MoE) by developing economic projects to improve the contractual process that led to raisings Iraqi electricity generation field. The research evaluates the impact of
applying the SSBD-DSIoEW for

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Developing Crisis Management System for Construction Projects in Iraq
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Construction is a complicated process that takes place in an almost uncontrollable environment. Although projects can be carefully planned in advance in principle, there is a chance that unforeseen events and crises can disrupt these plans, affecting project development. Because the initial investment expenditures in construction projects are so large, they may be quickly influenced by crises, resulting in significant financial losses. The 2014 financial crisis was one of the most prominent crises that Iraq faced, which significantly impacted various activities in general and the construction industry in particular. Despite the importance of crisis management systems, the researchers found a great lack of local studies looking at cr

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Program Applying Professional Safety Basics in Construction Projects
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When industrial and  constructional renaissance started in the world, the great interest was going on towards the equipment’s,  which was the first mean for production. After industry was settled the interest was going on towards the men ship which manpower on which the production depends. It was approved that it represents the basic part in all of the processes and the protection of those individuals against dangers of these equipment’s, industry and its accidents was the basic things which was studied in many researches until it crystallized in general principles for all industries and other take care in each industry.

     The professional safety is concerned as restrict which

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Developing Crisis Management System for Construction Projects in Iraq
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Construction is a complicated process that takes place in an almost uncontrollable environment. Although projects can be carefully planned in advance in principle, there is a chance that unforeseen events and crises can disrupt these plans, affecting project development. Because the initial investment expenditures in construction projects are so large, they may be quickly influenced by crises, resulting in significant financial losses. The 2014 financial crisis was one of the most prominent crises that Iraq faced, which significantly impacted various activities in general and the construction industry in particular. Despite the importance of crisis management systems, the researchers found a great lack of local studies l

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Ultrasonic Pulse Velocity Test to Assess the Effect of Water-Cement Ratio on the Compressive Strength of Concrete
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This study aims to find the effect of water-cement ratio on the compressive strength of concrete by using ultrasonic pulse velocity test (UPVT). Over 230 standard cube specimens were used in this study, with dimensions of 150mm, and concrete cubes were cured in water at 20 °C. Also, the specimens used in the study were made of concrete with varied water-cement ratio contents from 0.48 to 0.59. The specimens were taken from Diyarbakir-Turkey concrete centers and tested at the structure and material science lab, civil engineering, faculty of engineering from Dicle University.  The UPV measurement and compressive strength tests were carried out at the concrete age of 28 days. Their UPV and compressive strength ranged

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