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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Valuation the Impact of Risks on the Goals and the Safety of Construction Projects in Iraq
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Construction projects have a special nature and affect them many factors making them exposed to multiple risks as a result of the length of the implementation period and the multiplicity of stages, starting from the decision stage through implementation until the final delivery, which leads to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of risk.
The process of analysis and risk management is one of the effective and productive methods that are used in managing the construction projects for the purpose of increasing the chances of ending the project successfully in terms of cost, time and quality and at the lowest possible problems.

The research aims first to the effective planning for analysis and risk managemen

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Economic Benefits for the Application of Standards of Sustainability in Construction Projects
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In this research, that been focused on the most important economic benefits expected when applying the three standards of sustainability in construction projects (economic, environmental and social). Fuzzy AHP, a multi-decision decision-making technique for evaluating construction projects. Which when used we get the speed and accuracy in the results. Using this technique will reduce uncertainties decisions significantly (fuzzy environment), that found in most projects .The results of the data analysis showed  that the economic standards take the greatest relative importance (60%) among the three sustainability standards. Therefore, the implementation of any standards need a cost so the economic benefit of any proje

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Identification of the main causes of risks in engineering procurement construction projects
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Abstract<p>Many risks have adverse consequences for construction projects’ objectives such as quality, schedule, and cost. As engineering procurement construction (EPC) contracts gradually become one of the most common types used in implementing major large-scale construction projects, identifying common risk types and analyzing their root causes is important for developing measures to decrease and eliminate future risks in these types of contracts. The information about the main causes of risks was collected <italic>via</italic> well-structured questionnaires addressed to construction sector professionals and preparing lists of main potential risks in EPC/construction projects throu</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic Analysis of the Reasons for the Delay of the Investment Projects of the North Oil Company / Case Study
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The research aims to find a contemporary model in analyzing the reasons behind the delay of the investment plan projects suffered by the North Oil Company. This model is able to understand the environment surrounding the implementation of projects in the light of the changes facing the company at the present time, which in turn requires the need to identify the most important strengths and weaknesses Internal and external opportunities and threats using the SWOT matrix and identify the appropriate strategic alternative based on clear policy, strategies and programs to address weaknesses and look to the future prospects as the company can be stronger and more flexible environmental changes surrounding the reality of implementation

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Quality of Audit Work Under Expert System
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The research aims to extrapolate the repercussions of the use of expert systems in the work of the external auditor on the quality of audit, as the research problem was that despite the use of these techniques in audit work, there is a problem related to the efficiency and effectiveness of these technological systems used in audit work, the feasibility of their use and the extent of their impact: The quality of the audit process.

The researchers adopted the questionnaire as a tool for collecting study data from a community composed of auditors in auditing offices and companies in Iraq, and the auditors of the Iraqi Federal Financial Supervision Bureau. The number of recovered and valid qu

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Performance Evaluation of Mobility Models over UDP Traffic Pattern for MANET Using NS-2
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  The current study presents the simulative study and evaluation of MANET mobility models over UDP traffic pattern to determine the effects of this traffic pattern on mobility models in MANET which is implemented in NS-2.35 according to various performance metri (Throughput, AED (Average End-2-end Delay), drop packets, NRL (Normalize Routing Load) and PDF (Packet Delivery Fraction)) with various parameters such as different velocities, different environment areas, different number of nodes,  different traffic rates, different traffic sources, different pause times and different simulation times .  A routing protocol.…was exploited AODV(Adhoc On demand Distance Vector) and RWP (Random Waypoint), GMM (Gauss Markov Model), RPGM (Refere

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 24 2009
Journal Name
كتاب الوقائع /المؤتمر العلمي الثالث لكلية العلوم جامعة بغداد
Using antibiotics as mutagenic and curing agents for Prodigiosin Production By Serratia marcescens
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The effect of different antibiotics on growth pigment and plasmid curing of Serratia marcescens were studied, S. marcescens was cultured in media containing(16_500)µg/ml of antibiotics, curing mutants unable to produce prodigiosin and lost one plasmid band were obtained of of ampicillin, amoxillin, antibiotics concentrations (64 500) µg/ml metheprim, ultracloxam, azithromycin, cephalexin and erythromycin treated with (350 500) µg/ml of The mutant cells rose- light color and and refampicin revealed S.marcescens inhibited ciprodar and tetracyclin, lincomycin did not lost the plasmid band chlaforan

Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Fuzzy Inference to Evaluation Suppliers in Diyala General Electric Industries Company
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The research aims to evaluate the suppliers at Diyala general electric industries company conducted in an environment of uncertainty and fuzzy where there is no particular system followed by the company, and also aims to use the problem of traveling salesman problem in the process of transporting raw materials from suppliers to the company in a fuzzy environment. Therefore, a system based on mathematical methods and quantity was developed to evaluate the suppliers. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) and fuzzy set theory were used to solve this problem through (Matlab) and the problem of the traveling salesman in two stages was also solved by the first stage of eliminating the fuzzing of the environment using the rank function method, w

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Rationalization the costs of agricultural Activities under the use of genetic engineering: An applied research in ministry of agriculture - The directorate of inspection & certification of seeds
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The importance of this research has been to rationalize the cost of producing maize seeds through the followers of modern techniques and methods in agricultural activities such as genetic engineering for increasing production efficiency of maize seeds as well as the importance of calculating seed cost rationalization through the ABC system and thus rationalizing government spending. The research is based on one hypothesis in two ways that the use of genetic engineering on maize seeds works to: one - increase production efficiency of seeds and savings in agricultural inputs. 2. Rationalize the costs of examining and planting maize seeds. In order to calculate the costs will be based on the cost system based on activities ABC. The research

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent to Which the Internal audit function contributes to improving administrative performance: A field study in the Baghdad Health Department / Rusafa
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Abstract:

                The internal audit is considered the safety valve for senior management in all institutions. It aims to protect property, and raise the efficiency and effectiveness of the administrative performance, by following up on compliance with laws and instructions and the application of regulations in a way that increases the administrative performance of the department. The internal audit is possible to determine Weaknesses or imbalances in the administrative performance. To achieve this goal, an analytical descriptive methodology was adopted. The Baghdad Health Department / Al-Rosana was considered as society for this s

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