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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The Mechanical Behavior Of Materials
Identification of the main causes of risks in engineering procurement construction projects
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Abstract<p>Many risks have adverse consequences for construction projects’ objectives such as quality, schedule, and cost. As engineering procurement construction (EPC) contracts gradually become one of the most common types used in implementing major large-scale construction projects, identifying common risk types and analyzing their root causes is important for developing measures to decrease and eliminate future risks in these types of contracts. The information about the main causes of risks was collected <italic>via</italic> well-structured questionnaires addressed to construction sector professionals and preparing lists of main potential risks in EPC/construction projects throu</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Economic Benefits for the Application of Standards of Sustainability in Construction Projects
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In this research, that been focused on the most important economic benefits expected when applying the three standards of sustainability in construction projects (economic, environmental and social). Fuzzy AHP, a multi-decision decision-making technique for evaluating construction projects. Which when used we get the speed and accuracy in the results. Using this technique will reduce uncertainties decisions significantly (fuzzy environment), that found in most projects .The results of the data analysis showed  that the economic standards take the greatest relative importance (60%) among the three sustainability standards. Therefore, the implementation of any standards need a cost so the economic benefit of any proje

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Economic contributions to small industrial projects (Selected international experiences with special reference to Iraq)
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Abstract:

Most of the studies on this subject, small industrial projects, by researchers and scholars in the economic field show the great and increasing importance of doing this kind of projects, the extent of which can be determined by the contribution of these projects to indicators and macroeconomic and sectorial variables. So this research aims to show the extent of the economic contribution of projects in selected international experiences and in the Iraqi economy. As international experiences have provided the opportunity for the progress and growth of small projects in their economies, which led to an increase in the contribution of these projects in the recruitment of economically active manpower, in added

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Valuation the Impact of Risks on the Goals and the Safety of Construction Projects in Iraq
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Construction projects have a special nature and affect them many factors making them exposed to multiple risks as a result of the length of the implementation period and the multiplicity of stages, starting from the decision stage through implementation until the final delivery, which leads to increased uncertainty and the likelihood of risk.
The process of analysis and risk management is one of the effective and productive methods that are used in managing the construction projects for the purpose of increasing the chances of ending the project successfully in terms of cost, time and quality and at the lowest possible problems.

The research aims first to the effective planning for analysis and risk managemen

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Cost Management of construction industries according to the fast-track method
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Construction projects have become a changing dramatically in recent decades and that the goal of the beneficiaries of the implementation of structural project is to complete the work with less time and within the cost of the specific and the best possible quality may sometimes happen that highlights the importance of time on the rest of the items at the implementation of projects for various reasons, including the need to use the project as soon as possible possible change rapidly to customer's requests, but the high cost of the project represents the biggest obstacle for entrepreneurs with its effects on the quality and the time workers, and is a measure of those elements in monetary terms is the key to integration between them, so the

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The awareness degree of teacher students in Arabic language department and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future role in knowledge age
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The study aimed to identify the awareness degree of teacher students in the department of Arabic language and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future roles in the age of knowledge. To achieve this objective, descriptive- analytical approach was used. The instruments of this study were two questionnaires: first one consist of (20) item for teacher students, and the second consist of (27) item for educational supervisors which covered three roles: professional, technological, and humanitarian. The sample was (120) student selected randomly, and (39) supervisors of Arabic language. The result revealed that the mean of degree awareness of teacher students and their supervisors of future role are (3.857), (3.472) respectively

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Publication Date
Fri May 20 2022
Journal Name
Eai Endorsed Transactions On Internet Of Things
APP innovation to Control Projects Risks Management during Crises
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The goal of this study is to build an application that can be used in difficult cases and sudden circumstances during the pandemic and post-disaster state, which can be the development of digital risk management and mitigating the difficult impact of the epidemic through the improvement of IT and IoT that can be fine by finding initial solutions and make the world like a digital city that could be managed by the network. We provide this study to gain an overview of reasons for delayed and exceeded costs in a select of thirty Iraqi case projects by controlling the time and cost. The drivers of delay have been investigated in multiple countries/contexts. however, there is little country data available under the conditions that have ch

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 21 2021
Journal Name
Engineering, Technology &amp; Applied Science Research
A Comparison between Static and Repeated Load Test to Predict Asphalt Concrete Rut Depth
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Rutting has a significant impact on the pavements' performance. Rutting depth is often used as a parameter to assess the quality of pavements. The Asphalt Institute (AI) design method prescribes a maximum allowable rutting depth of 13mm, whereas the AASHTO design method stipulates a critical serviceability index of 2.5 which is equivalent to an average rutting depth of 15mm. In this research, static and repeated compression tests were performed to evaluate the permanent strain based on (1) the relationship between mix properties (asphalt content and type), and (2) testing temperature. The results indicated that the accumulated plastic strain was higher during the repeated load test than that during the static load tests. Notably, temperatur

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Watching Cultural Programs in Satellites Channels tv and Its relation to the actual reading of the book
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The research is based on an important subject according to the researchers' estimations. It is the disclosure of the nature of the relationship between Watching to cultural programs in satellite channels and the book's vision of the intellectual, and the pursuit of purchasing and acquiring it It is a scientific addition to the scientific research media because it deals in the field of new about the nature of the relationship between satellite programs and writers, and it provides a scientific development on the importance of satellite channels in the promotion of the book and sales of intellectual elite. The study examined the audience of the recipients of literature for cultural programs, the nature of the public, characteristic

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of composite variance of experiments carried out according to design Latin box
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We know that the experiments which conducted by latin square in one location or in one period (season), but there are many cases that need to conduct the same experiments in many locations or in many periods (seasons) to study the interaction  between the treatments and locations or between the treatments and periods (seasons) .In this research we present  an idea for  conduct  the experiment in several locations and in many period (seasons) by using LSD , it represent  acontribution in the area of design and analysis of experiments ,we had written. we had written (theoretically)  the general plans, the mathematical models for these experiments, and finding the derivations of EMS for each component (

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