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jeasiq-1218
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 28 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Using GIS to identify hazardous earthquake locations in Iran
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The objective of all planning research is to plan for human comfort and safety, and one of the most significant natural dangers to which humans are exposed is earthquake risk; therefore, earthquake risks must be anticipated, and with the advancement of global technology, it is possible to obtain information on earthquake hazards. GIS has been utilized extensively in the field of environmental assessment research due to its high potential, and GIS is a crucial application in seismic risk assessment. This paper examines the methodologies used in recent GIS-based seismic risk studies, their primary environmental impacts on urban areas, and the complexity of the relationship between the applied methodological approaches and the resulting env

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 Ieee Asia-pacific Conference On Computer Science And Data Engineering (csde)
Effect of Lime, Cement, and Lime-Cement Stabilisation on Low to Medium Plasticity Clayey Soil
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Class consciousness in the contemporary Marxist political thought (selected models)
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Class consciousness represents its highest stage in the contemporary Marxist thought of Rosa Luxemburg and Antonio Gramsci, not just a reflection of reality, but rather a dialectical form through the reflection of consciousness on reality and its reproduction. The superiority over the infrastructure (historical materialism) promised the revolutionary class consciousness to be achieved spontaneously, and the seeds of a breakthrough are mass strikes, denying the role of the party to organize this awareness, limiting its role to the interconnection between classes, emphasizing the role of socialist democracy as a conscious vanguard for organizing spontaneity, struggle, and developing awareness during the revolutionary process and the leader

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 01 2021
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
The Cognition Role to Understanding Planning and Architectural Production
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This paper focuses on the concept of cognition and its clarification in the light of Islamic epistemology. Knowledge passes through two essential parts: conception and assent. Conception explains simple knowledge, while assent explains knowledge involving a judgment. The paper proceeded with the identification of the problem of relationship blurring between cognition and knowledge. The external and inner senses have explained the relationship between the stages of knowledge and cognition. The external senses receive stimuli and form primary conceptions. These conceptions transfer to the first part of the inner senses, which is common sense; it collects the sensations and transmits them to pictorial power. Secondary conceptions are f

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluation of Proceedings External Oversight on Investment Budget Projects for local Governments: "Applied Research in The Government of The Province of Dhi Qar local"
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The investment budget represents a stage of the investment decision in service units, and the preparation and implementation needs to be a complement of the same planning part, because the planning does not end with the development of the plan, but includes a follow-up implementation, so it has to be effective and efficient oversight of the estimates and procedures for disbursement of funds approved for investment projects, The problem with research in that local governments suffer from the presence of Allkaat and problems facing the implementation of the investment budget projects due to the adoption budget items which can not be measured the efficiency of the performance of these units of government by, and shortcomings in the control

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Methodsx
How mathematical models might predict desertification from global warming and dust pollutants
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Typical Federal Budget According to the budget performance
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The purpose of this research that, the performance budget  is the best style of budget styles that can help and contribute in forming preparing federal typical budget in Iraq , By taking advantage of the application of the principles of scientific rules that would ensure optimal allocation and investment of the financial resources of the state and achieve the best performance and the lowest possible cost, both with regard to the administrative and accounting side, reducing the waste of public money, so that can enhance the success , power , and safety of financial activity of managerial system that it focuses on the magnetite and quality of the work done and the objectives wanted to meet. so application of performance budget require

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political behavior for generations (Iraq's case study)
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The topic area of that’s research dealing with values which adopted by Iraqi people since 1980, many changes and variables which make many situations and skills which the life is suitable in war and conflicts times. That’s values like traditional and ordering, traditionalism mean the conservation about values s and tradition which society adopted its. The Iraqi society suffering from many changes since 1980-2003, the consequently of that’s changes make Iraqi citizen more interested about luxury needs like clothes, while decreasing the interested about liberty of thought, beauty, show evidence of identity, and openness of mind. The processing of values changes associated with political behavior of Iraqi people which lead to weaken o

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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