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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Critical Success Factors in Construction Projects (Governmental Projects as a Case Study)
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The importance of the construction sector and its Great role in the provision of services and infrastructure, reduce poverty, improve living conditions and improve the economic situation in the country, impose attention to the way in which the projects implemented for its improvement and to get successful projects. The objective of this research was to determine the criteria for success as well as critical success and failure factors that have a significant impact on project success. A selected 75 engineer (department managers, project managers and engineers) are asked to fill  the questionnaire form, Sixty-seven valid questionnaire forms were analyzed statistically to get search results, which were as follows : Twe

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Bourgeois ascendancy under Fatimids
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The bourgeoisie groups derived great advantages from the system upon which the Fatimids built up their Regime out the land-tax and other taxes against a fixed sum . The surpulus revenue was the prophet of the farmers . A striking feature of the Fatimid was freedom of enterprise .All sectors of economic life were free-crafts , industry and trade . The government interfered in the trade in victuals only so far to in order to guarantee the supply of wheat to the big towns
The Egyptian Bourgeoisie enjoyed also the great prosperity which was produced among other reasons by the inflationary system of Fatimid economy .
The maintenance of gold dinar being almost pure and of full weight was only possible because Egypt steadily received cons

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Valuation of Construction Projects Based on of Quantity Scale by using Expert System
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The subject of an valuation of quality of construction projects is one of the topics which it becomes necessary of the absence of the quantity standards in measuring the control works and the quality valuation standards in constructional projects. In the time being it depends on the experience of the workers which leads to an apparent differences in the valuation.

The idea of this research came to put the standards to evaluate the quality of the projects in a special system depending on quantity scale nor quality specifying in order to prepare an expert system “ Crystal “ to apply this special system to able the engineers to valuate the quality of their projects easily and in more accurate ways.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 11 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Materials Science And Engineering
Application of Nanotechnology in Iraqi Construction Projects
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Real estate acquisition barrier and its impact on urban development projects" Study Area: Infrastructure project in the capital Baghdad (North East Sewage Line project AL khansaa)
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The increase the rates of natural growth, urbanization and continuous migration, this has generated constant pressure and, as a result, the capital city of Baghdad faces a number of challenges related to its urban environment, including the challenge of acquiring real estate.

 

 and this research examines the impact of these holdings, representing the main base from which the various projects originate Urban in all areas (economic, social, and recreational).

 

this leads us to the research problem of the obstacles that arise during the process of acquiring real estate to carry out development projects, and to achieve the objectives of research, namely (work to create a regulatory methodology

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties
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Rate of penetration plays a vital role in field development process because the drilling operation is expensive and include the cost of equipment and materials used during the penetration of rock and efforts of the crew in order to complete the well without major problems. It’s important to finish the well as soon as possible to reduce the expenditures. So, knowing the rate of penetration in the area that is going to be drilled will help in speculation of the cost and that will lead to optimize drilling outgoings. In this research, an intelligent model was built using artificial intelligence to achieve this goal.  The model was built using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to predict the rate of penetration in

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Sonic Log to Predict Abnormal Pressure Zones in Selected Oil Wells (Western of Iraq)
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Two oil wells were tested to find the abnormal pressure zones using sonic log technique. We found that well Abu-Jir-3 and Abu-Jir-5 had an abnormal pressure zones from depth 4340 to 4520 feet and 4200 to 4600 feet, respectively. The maximum difference between obtained results and the field measured results did not exceed 2.4%.
In this paper, the formation pressures were expressed in terms of pressure gradient which sometimes reached up to twice the normal pressure gradient.
Drilling and developing such formations were dangerous and expensive.
The plotted figures showed a clear derivation from the normal trend which confirmed the existence of abnormal pressure zones.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Time Series Methods To Modify The Seasonal Variations in the Consumer Price Index
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     As is  known that the consumer price index (CPI) is one of the most important  price indices because of its direct effect on the welfare of the individual and his living.

       We have been address the problem of Strongly  seasonal  commodities in calculating  (CPI) and identifying some of the solution.

   We have  used an actual data  for a set of commodities (including strongly seasonal commodities) to calculate the index price by using (Annual Basket With Carry Forward Prices method) . Although this method can be successfully used in the context of seasonal&nbs

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Using Fuzzy Clustering to Detect the Tumor Area in Stomach Medical Images
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Although the number of stomach tumor patients reduced obviously during last decades in western countries, but this illness is still one of the main causes of death in developing countries. The aim of this research is to detect the area of a tumor in a stomach images based on fuzzy clustering. The proposed methodology consists of three stages. The stomach images are divided into four quarters and then features elicited from each quarter in the first stage by utilizing seven moments invariant. Fuzzy C-Mean clustering (FCM) was employed in the second stage for each quarter to collect the features of each quarter into clusters. Manhattan distance was calculated in the third stage among all clusters' centers in all quarters to disclosure of t

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