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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Improving the Performance of Construction Project Information and Communication Management Using Web-Based Project Management Systems (WPMSs)
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This paper presents a brief study undertaken for improving the performance of information and communication management of construction projects through investing in information and communication technologies (ICT). The work aims at first to investigate and diagnose the problems, challenges, weaknesses, and inefficiencies related to information and communication management in projects in the construction industry of Iraq. Studying the diagnosed matters and the different solutions of ICT to improve project management performance is following the investigation process. The research presents a technological system suggested to process a lot of the diagnosed problems, challenges, weakness, and inefficiencies of the construction projects and t

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 24 2024
Journal Name
Applied Water Science
Tectonic activation and the risk of Ilisu Dam collapse to Iraq through modelling and simulation using HEC-RAS
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Abstract<p>Floods caused by dam failures can cause huge losses of life and property, especially in estuarine areas and valleys. In spite of all the capabilities and great improvements reached by man in the construction of dams and their structures, they will remain helpless before the powerful forces of nature, especially those related to tectonic activation, and the occurrence of earthquakes of different intensities.</p><p>The region extending from the Ilisu Dam in Turkey to the Mosul Dam in Iraq was chosen as an area for this study, and the HEC-RAS application was used to simulate the collapse of the Ilisu Dam due to a major earthquake, to know the magnitude of the risks and losses that could result</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ASTUDYON THERECORDOF EVALUATINGTHE SUPPLIERSACCORDING TO THE CONCEPT OF QUALITY AND BENEFITING FROM IT IN PRACTICE IN AL-FURAT STATE COMPANY AND FINDING POSSIBLE PROPOSALS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT: ASTUDYON THERECORDOF EVALUATINGTHE SUPPLIERSACCORDING TO THE CONCEPT OF QUALITY AND BENEFITING FROM IT IN PRACTICE IN AL-FURAT STATE COMPANY AND FINDING POSSIBLE PROPOSALS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
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Success in selecting the best among the sources of supply is one of the most important factors in the efficiency of the procurement activity in the company, because the proper selection of the source of the supply significantly affect the achievement of what is desired by the factors of quality, quantity, price and service, and the ability of the competent supplier to meet everything associated with this Factors of commitments, hereby supporting the procurement function's efforts to fully discharge its responsibilities, and in view of adopting of Al-Furat company quality management system by applying the standards of ISO (9001: 2015) and purpose of getting the on-demand benefits from the application of international standards reg

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biological and chemical Study to evaluate the types of water used for drinking in the Al-youssiffiyah area and its effect on public health
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Election study included four sites for the waters in area of Youssifiyah south of Baghdad (river water, tank water, liquefactions water, and water filtrate and seethed and purifier by alum and chloride), the samples were collected during the month of June in 2007. Temperature, electrical conductivity and acidity are measured. Also , the concentration of chloride , sulphate , carbonate , nitrate , sodium , calcium , magnesium , hard total and total dissolved substances are determined , as well as heavy metals assess environmental risk (such as Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe). It was also a study of bacterial totals included both total Bacteria (TB) and Total Coliform Bacteria (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) and Fecal Streptococci (FS). The stu

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
Instructional Design According to the Repulsive Learning Model and its Impact on the Achievement of Chemistry and Lateral Thinking for Third-Grade Intermediate Students
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Identify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Developing a Prosthesis Design using A Gearbox to Replicate the Human Hand Mechanism
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Prosthetic is an artificial tool that replaces a member of the human frame that is  absent because of ailment, damage, or distortion. The current research activities in Iraq draw interest to the upper limb discipline because of the growth in the number  of amputees. Thus, it becomes necessary to increase researches in this subject to help in reducing the struggling patients.  This paper describes the design and development of a prosthesis for people able and wear them from persons who have amputation in the hands. This design is composed of a hand with five fingers moving by means of a gearbox ism mechanism. The design of this artificial hand has 5 degrees of freedom. This artificial hand works based on the principle of &n

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Using TermoDeck System for Pre-Cooling/ Heating to Control the Building Inside Conditions
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In this paper, experimental study has been done for temperature distribution in space conditioned with Ventilation Hollow Core Slab (TermoDeck) system. The experiments were carried out on a model room with dimensions of (1m 1.2m 1m) that was built according to a suitable scale factor of (1/4). The temperature distributions was measured by 59 thermocouples fixed in several locations in the test room. Two cases were considered in this work,  the first one during unoccupied period at night time (without external load) and the other at day period with external load of 800W/m2 according to solar heat gain calculations during summer season in Iraq. All results confirm the use of TermoDeck system for ventilation and cooling/heat

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Using Spatial Analysis Methods to Evaluate the Soil Contamination of Baghdad City, Iraq
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Abstract<p>The current study aims to identify soil pollutants from heavy metals The study utilized 40 topsoil (5 cm) samples, which adapted and divided into seven regions lies in Baghdad governorate, included (Al-Husainya,(Hs) Al-Doura (Do), Sharie Al-Matar (SM), Al-Waziria (Wz), Nharawan (Nh), Abu Ghraib (Abu) and Al-Mahmoodyia (Mh)). Spatial distribution maps of Nickel (Ni), Manganese (Mn), Lead (Pb) and Zinc (Zn) were created for Baghdad city using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The concentrations of four heavy metals in the soil of different area of Baghdad were measured and observed using XRF instrument. The result found highest values of Pb and Zn at the middle of the Baghdad in (Wz</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon May 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Some Properties of Mortar and Concrete Using Brick, Glass and Tile Waste as Partial Replacement of Cement
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The using of waste products as a recycled material was one of the most important studies for saving money and reduces the pollution. Mortar and concrete mixes with (10, 20 and 30)% of brick, glass and tile powder as replacement by weight of cement was investigated. The concrete mixes using brick or glass as 10%replacement of cement exhibited enhancement in compressive strength about (6, 4.7 and 2.0)% and (7.2, 5.6 and 2)% at age 7, 28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. The 20% replacement of glass powder also showed an increase in the compressive strength up to (8, 6.3 and 4) %at age 7,28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. Finally concrete mix using (10, 20 and 30) % tile powder as replacement of cement sho

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Publication Date
Wed May 24 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Some Properties of Mortar and Concrete Using Brick, Glass and Tile Waste as Partial Replacement of Cement
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The using of waste products as a recycled material was one of the most important studies for saving money and reduces the pollution. Mortar and concrete mixes with (10, 20 and 30)% of brick, glass and tile powder as replacement by weight of cement was investigated. The concrete mixes using brick or glass as 10%replacement of cement exhibited enhancement in compressive strength about (6, 4.7 and 2.0)% and (7.2, 5.6 and 2)% at age 7, 28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. The 20% replacement of glass powder also showed an increase in the compressive strength up to (8, 6.3 and 4) %at age 7,28 and 90 days respectively compared to reference mix. Finally concrete mix using (10, 20 and 30) % tile powder as replacement of cement sho

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