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Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفرها بشكل كبير على انجاز المشاريع العمرانية والاقتصادية ومن هذا المنطلق فقد تم اعداد الدراسات لمستقبل هذه الصناعة من اجل النهوض بها وتطويرها وتوسيعها.

 وان هدف البحث هو التنبؤ بكميات انتاج السمنت العراقي للمدة المستقبلية (2003 - 2013) باستخدام افضل نماذج بوكس جينكنز الملائمة (B -J).

 وقد توصل البحث الى جملة من الاستنتاجات وهي: باستخدام طريقة بوكس جينكنز وجد ان السلسلة غير مستقرة وبذلك تم اخذ الفرق الاول بهدف تحقيق الاستقرارية. وكذلك من سلوك معاملات الارتباط الذاتي والجزئي استنتجنا انه امكن تحديد واختيار النموذج الملائم لتمثيل السلسلة، حيث كان النموذج الملائم هو  ARIMA (2, 1, 0) وكذلك وجدنا ان الحدود الدنيا للتنبؤ قد تكون سالبة، وهذا مما يدل على انه في حالة الحاجة الماسة الى هذه المادة فأن الانتاج المحلي قد لا يكفي لذلك يلجأ البلد الى سد النقص الحاصل عن طريق الاستيراد.

 اما التوصيات فهي: نوصي باعتماد النموذج الذي تم التوصل اليه في طريقة بوكس – جينكنز بغية الاستفادة منها في التخطيط والتنبؤ للفترات القادمة. وكذلك نوصي الشركة العراقية لانتاج السمنت ان تعتمد على القيم التنبئية المستخرجة من تطبيق النموذج برسم خططها المستقبلية. وكذلك ان البلد في الوقت الحالي بحاجة الى عملية اعمار واسعة لذلك نوصي بزيادة الطاقة الانتاجية من هذه المادة لغرض سد النقص الحاصل.

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
Instructional Design According to the Repulsive Learning Model and its Impact on the Achievement of Chemistry and Lateral Thinking for Third-Grade Intermediate Students
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Identify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biological and chemical Study to evaluate the types of water used for drinking in the Al-youssiffiyah area and its effect on public health
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Election study included four sites for the waters in area of Youssifiyah south of Baghdad (river water, tank water, liquefactions water, and water filtrate and seethed and purifier by alum and chloride), the samples were collected during the month of June in 2007. Temperature, electrical conductivity and acidity are measured. Also , the concentration of chloride , sulphate , carbonate , nitrate , sodium , calcium , magnesium , hard total and total dissolved substances are determined , as well as heavy metals assess environmental risk (such as Cu, Pb, Zn, Fe). It was also a study of bacterial totals included both total Bacteria (TB) and Total Coliform Bacteria (TC) and Fecal Coliform (FC) and Fecal Streptococci (FS). The stu

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Studying the Utility of Using Reed and Sawdust as Waste Materials to Produce Cementitious Building Units
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In this research, the possibility of using waste wooden materials (reed and sawdust) was studied to produce sustainable and thermal insulation lightweight building units , which has economic and environmental advantages. This study is intended to produce light weight building units with low thermal conductivity, so it can be used as partitions to improve the thermal insulation in buildings. Waste wooden materials were used as a partial replacement of natural sand, in different percentages (10, 20, 30, and 40) % . The mix proportions were (1:2.5) (cement: fine aggregate) with w/c of 0.4. The values of 28 days oven dry density ranged between (2060-1693) kg/m3.The thermal conductivity decreased from (0.745 to 0.2

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2026
Journal Name
مجلة دراسات وبحوث التربية الرياضية
Sports anxiety and its relationship to the level of accuracy of shooting by jumping high in handball among fourth-stage students at the University of Baghdad
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This research aims to study the relationship between sports anxiety and accuracy of aiming when jumping high in handball, considering that anxiety is one of the most important psychological factors affecting the skill performance of athletes, especially in precise and complex tasks. The study relied on the descriptive associative approach, where data were collected from a sample of fourth-stage students at the Faculty of physical education and sports sciences at the University of Baghdad for the academic year (2024-2025), numbering (16) students, and anxiety levels were measured using standardized scales, in addition to evaluating the accuracy of aiming when jumping high according to specific technical standards. The results showed that the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Expatriate Workers and Its Repercussions on the Economy and Labor Market in Iraq After 2003
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The demand for expatriate labor to Iraq increased after 2003 as a result of the openness that Iraq experienced, but this expatriate labor, which was requested at an increasing rate, has had economic, social, and political effects on the Iraqi economy in general, and the Iraqi labor market in particular. This is due to the high rates of unemployment, as most of these expatriate workers cause competition to local labor, and thus cause repercussions on the Iraqi economy as a whole, except for those expatriate workers coming with companies working in the oil sector. Iraq's GDP

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 20 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Spatial transformations and visual construction in the contemporary theater
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The current research deals with the subject of spatial transformations and visual construction in contemporary theater. How the visual system works to create spatial diversity in the contemporary Iraqi theater performance and how visual construction contributes to a spatial development process capable of building a tourism system that creates an architectural architecture that leaves the topography of the scriptural architecture. And the production of various indications and patterns in the scene of theatrical presentation in order to produce the new foundational meaning by creating a new structure that leads to diversity and diversity in the visual system and the beginning of visual constructions and their applications. Knowledge and te

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Identifying the factors affecting in the Intentions to continue using of the government social media
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Abstract

Social media has thrived recently and public organizations at Thi-Qar governorate across different levels are experimenting with launching government social media (GSM) to facilitating two-way interactions between the government and its citizens. Both scholars and practitioners are focusing on understanding the key success factors related to the create of GSM. This study aimed to identify the key success factors by exploring the formation mechanism of individuals’ continuous usage intention. Through the theoretical perspective of the uses and gratifications theory. We identify the gratification factors that stimulate users’ continuance intention toward GSM. Furthermore, we draw upon the stimulus–organism–

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The semantics of terms in terms of inclusiveness when Imam Ibn Hajar al-Askalani (d. 852 e) in his book Fath al-Bari: Door of worship - Practical models
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Praise be to Allaah.
My research has included the following: The field of application of semantics when fundamentalists are the book and the Sunnah. Imam Ibn Hajar agreed with the majority of fundamentalists that what is meant from the year (one word denotes one side on two things onwards), and agreed that the significance of the year specific to the rest of its members is not a definite and definite formulas of the public has the singular known as (the) Astragharism, and the plural known as ( The nationality stating that dumping, pluralism is defined as (add), and nakra, if it occurs in the context of the condition, denial and prohibition, the names of the condition, the connected names, and the word (all - all). And the year in whic

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using simulation to estimate parameters and reliability function for extreme value distribution
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   This study includes Estimating scale parameter, location parameter  and reliability function  for Extreme Value (EXV) distribution by two methods, namely: -
- Maximum Likelihood Method (MLE).
- Probability Weighted Moments Method (PWM).

 Used simulations to generate the required samples to estimate the parameters and reliability function of different sizes(n=10,25,50,100) , and give real values for the parameters are and , replicate the simulation experiments (RP=1000)

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 05 2025
Journal Name
Lecture Notes In Networks And Systems
Using Artificial Intelligence to Enhance Family Cohesion and Promote Positive Social Values
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