Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Sawa Lake is one of the unique lakes in Iraq. It is located in the southwestern part of Iraq. It is one of the closed lakes, as no surface water source works to feed the lake. The lake feeds on groundwater. The source of this groundwater is the Dammam Basin. During the past ten years, The lake has had many changes, which led to a decrease in water levels. This also led attention to study of the causes of these changes. Many types of research were presented in the study of the state of the lake. This research used remote sensing images from Landsat 8 OLI to monitor the changes during 2020-2021 by applying the NDWI equation to extract water area from image data. The results of the areas were obtained from a special report by Normalized Dif
... Show MoreThe current study includes preparing a geometric proposal of the main parameters that must be worked within a seismic reflection survey to prepare a three-dimensional subsurface image. This image represents the Siba oil field located in Basra, southern Iraq. The results were based on two options for selecting these approved elements to create a three-dimensional image of the Mishrif, Zubair and Yamama formations as well as the Jurassic and Permian Khuff and the pre-Khuff reservoir area. The first option is represented in the geometry in option -1 is 12 lines, 6 shots, and 216 chs. The receiver density is 66.67 receivers / km2, so the shot density is the same. Total shots are 21000, which is the same number of receiv
... Show MoreOne of the most significant elements influencing weather, climate, and the environment is vegetation cover. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) over the years 2019–2022 were estimated based on four Landsat 8 TIRS’s images covering Duhok City. Using the radiative transfer model, the city's land surface temperature (LST) during the next four years was calculated. The aim of this study is to compute the temperature at the land's surface (LST) from the years 2019-2022 and understand the link, between LST, NDVI, and NDBI and the capability for mapping by LANDSAT-8 TIRS's. The findings revealed that the NDBI and the NDVI had the strongest correlation with the
... Show MoreThe researcher deals with an important issue in her research - especially as she progresses to the doctoral stage thanks to God (Almighty) and his mentor - the relationship of philosophy to nodal origins. Therefore, she studied the philosophy of Shirazi, which is the key to the mental solutions that the speakers and philosophers stopped. And to conclude scientific results as well as the study of philosophy researcher as a station in the doctoral stage, to be familiar with the philosophical interpretation and the origins of the faith and its philosophical vocabularies such as existence, self, movement, astronomy, time and others. At the same time draw the attention of science students to the issue of philosophical interpretation and its r
... Show MoreAgriculture is one of the major sources of livelihood for the Iraqi people as one-third of Iraq population resides in rural areas and depends upon agriculture for their livelihoods. This study aims to estimate the impact of temperature variability on crops productivity across the agro-climatic zones in Salah Al-Din governorate using climate satellite-based data for the period 2000 to 2018. The average annual air temperature based on satellite data was downloaded from the GLDAS Model NOAH025_M v2.1, and interpolates using Kriging interpolation/spherical model. Thirteen strategic crops were selected which is Courgette, garlic, Onion, Sweet Pepper, Watermelon, Melon, Cucumber, Tomato, Potato, Eggplant, Wheat, Barley
... Show MoreCement kiln dust (CKD) is a waste of cement manufacture. The disposal dust becomes an environmental threat. In order to overcome this problem, researchers are carried out to find out the economical and the efficient means of utilizing it in various applications .One of these applications is adding it as partial replacement of cement. The aim of present work is investigating the effect of CKDs fineness on the consistency and setting time of cement, when utilized as a partial replacement. the CKD was grind by jet mill and classify into 7 groups according fineness (3000 , 6000 , 7000 , 8000 , 9000 , 10000 , 11000) cm2/gm then prepared blends with (5 ,10 , 15 , 20 , 25 , 30 , 35 and 40) % replacement by CKD for each fineness ,and compare bet
... Show MoreThe ring modulator described in part I of this paper is designed here for two operating wavelengths 1550nm and 1310nm. For each wavelength, three structures are designed corresponding to three values of polymer slot widths (40, 50 and 60nm). The performance of these modulators are simulated using COMSOL software (version 4.3b) and the results are discussed and compared with theoretical predictions. The performance of intensity modulation/direct detection short range and long rang optical communication systems incorporating the designed modulators is simulated for 40 and 100Gb/s data rates using Optisystem software (version 12). The results reveal that an average energy per bit as low as 0.05fJ can be obtained when the 1550nm modulator is d
... Show MoreThis paper presents comprehensive analysis and investigation for 1550nm and 1310nm ring optical modulators employing an electro-optic polymer infiltrated silicon-plasmonic hybrid phase shifter. The paper falls into two parts which introduce a theoretical modeling framework and performance assessment of these advanced modulators, respectively. In this part, analytical expressions are derived to characterize the coupling effect in the hybrid phase shifter, transmission function of the modulator, and modulator performance parameters. The results can be used as a guideline to design compact and wideband optical modulators using plasmonic technology
This study proposed using color components as artificial intelligence (AI) input to predict milk moisture and fat contents. In this sense, an adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to milk processed by moderate electrical field‐based non‐thermal (NP) and conventional pasteurization (CP). The differences between predicted and experimental data were not significant (