Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This work targeted studying organogel as a potential floating system. Organgel has an excellent viscoelastic properties, floating system posses a depot property. Different formulations of 12-hydroxyoctadecanoic acid (HOA) in sesame oil were gelled and selecting F1, F3 and F5 HOA organogels for various examinations: tabletop rheology, optical microscopy, and oscillatory rheology studies. Also, the floating properties studies were conducted at in vitro and in-vivo levels. Lastly, the in-vitro release study using cinnarizine (CN) was to investigate the organogel depot property. Based on the results, the selected concentrations of HOA in sesame oil organogels showed temperature transitions fr
... Show MoreThe selection of proper field survey parameters of electrical resistivity can significantly provide efficient results within a reasonable time and cost. Four electrode arrays of 2D Electric Resistivity Imaging (ERI) surveys were applied to characterize and detect subsurface archaeological bodies and to determine the appropriate array type that should be applied in the field survey. This research is to identify the subsurface features of the Borsippa archaeological site, Babylon Governorate, Middle Iraq. Synthetic modeling studies were conducted to determine the proper array and parameters for imaging the shallow subsurface features or targets. The efficiency of many array types has been tested for the detection the buried archaeolog
... Show MoreInterval methods for verified integration of initial value problems (IVPs) for ODEs have been used for more than 40 years. For many classes of IVPs, these methods have the ability to compute guaranteed error bounds for the flow of an ODE, where traditional methods provide only approximations to a solution. Overestimation, however, is a potential drawback of verified methods. For some problems, the computed error bounds become overly pessimistic, or integration even breaks down. The dependency problem and the wrapping effect are particular sources of overestimations in interval computations. Berz (see [1]) and his co-workers have developed Taylor model methods, which extend interval arithmetic with symbolic computations. The latter is an ef
... Show MoreTrip generation is the first phase in the travel forecasting process. It involves the estimation of the
total number of trips entering or leaving a parcel of land per time period (usually on a daily basis);
as a function of the socioeconomic, locational, and land-use characteristics of the parcel.
The objective of this study is to develop statistical models to predict trips production volumes for a
proper target year. Non-motorized trips are considered in the modeling process. Traditional method
to forecast the trip generation volume according to trip rate, based on family type is proposed in
this study. Families are classified by three characteristics of population social class, income, and
number of vehicle ownersh
The present study develops an artificial neural network (ANN) to model an analysis and a simulation of the correlation between the average corrosion rate carbon steel and the effective parameter Reynolds number (Re), water concentration (Wc) % temperature (T o) with constant of PH 7 . The water, produced fom oil in Kirkuk oil field in Iraq from well no. k184-Depth2200ft., has been used as a corrosive media and specimen area (400 mm2) for the materials that were used as low carbon steel pipe. The pipes are supplied by Doura Refinery . The used flow system is all made of Q.V.F glass, and the circulation of the two –phase (liquid – liquid ) is affected using a Q.V.F pump .The input parameters of the model consists of Reynolds number , w
... Show Moreon the subject of the provisions of recitation among students of the Islamic Sciences Colleges).
The researchers adopted the experimental method and chose an experimental design for the two equivalent groups by post-test. The research sample consisted of (60) male and female students from (second stage) - Department of Qur’an Sciences and Islamic Education - University of Diyala, and the two researchers were rewarded between the two groups of research in the following variables: (Chronological age calculated in months, degrees of recitation rulings subject in the previous year, the two researchers studied the same research groups, and lasted for an entire semester, the researchers prepared the observation card to measure the ru
... Show MoreThe harvest of hydrocarbon from the depleted reservoir is crucial during field development. Therefore, drilling operations in the depleted reservoir faced several problems like partial and total lost circulation. Continuing production without an active water drive or water injection to support reservoir pressure will decrease the pore and fracture pressure. Moreover, this depletion will affect the distribution of stress and change the mud weight window. This study focused on vertical stress, maximum and minimum horizontal stress redistributions in the depleted reservoirs due to decreases in pore pressure and, consequently, the effect on the mud weight window. 1D and 4D robust geomechanical models are
The latest events in Iraq and notably the fall of Mosul in the summer of 2014 have marked a turning point in The modern history of Iraq. Violent terrorist groups have overrun a vast area comprising of many towns in mid and northern Iraq causing many casualties and mass migration. Despite Iraq’s long history of pain and suffering the events of the second half of the year 2014 have been the most violent ever witnessed. From this point of view the researcher has tried to identify specifically in this time and place the effect these events have had on the Iraqi artist and to understand how the Iraqi artists depicted this violence in their works of art. The research comprises four parts; the first looked at the language used and the and pro
... Show More