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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 17 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Computer Applications
Analysis of Wind Speed Data and Annual Energy Potential at Three locations in Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 05 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Novel System for Confidential Medical Data Storage Using Chaskey Encryption and Blockchain Technology
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Secure storage of confidential medical information is critical to healthcare organizations seeking to protect patient's privacy and comply with regulatory requirements. This paper presents a new scheme for secure storage of medical data using Chaskey cryptography and blockchain technology. The system uses Chaskey encryption to ensure integrity and confidentiality of medical data, blockchain technology to provide a scalable and decentralized storage solution. The system also uses Bflow segmentation and vertical segmentation technologies to enhance scalability and manage the stored data. In addition, the system uses smart contracts to enforce access control policies and other security measures. The description of the system detailing and p

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Estimation methods for the two models SPSEM and SPSAR for spatially dependent data
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ABSTRUCT

In This Paper, some semi- parametric spatial models were estimated, these models are, the semi – parametric spatial error model (SPSEM), which suffer from the problem of spatial errors dependence, and the semi – parametric spatial auto regressive model (SPSAR). Where the method of maximum likelihood was used in estimating the parameter of spatial error          ( λ ) in the model (SPSEM), estimated  the parameter of spatial dependence ( ρ ) in the model ( SPSAR ), and using the non-parametric method in estimating the smoothing function m(x) for these two models, these non-parametric methods are; the local linear estimator (LLE) which require finding the smoo

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Stratigraphic and Structural Study of Khlesia Region Using 2D Seismic Data - North Western Iraq
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     This study deals with interpretation of stratigraphic and structural of Khlesia area north-west Iraq in Nineveh province, near the Iraq- Syria border, by using 2D seismic data. Synthetic trace are prepared by using available data of the well (Kh-1) using Geoframe program to define and picking the reflectors on seismic section. These reflectors are: (Within Fatha and Kurra Chine reflectors) representing  Middle Miocene and Late Triassic ages respectively. A listric growth normal fault is affecting the stratigraphic succession, and normal fault as a result of collision of Arabian plate with Eurasian plate. In addition, minor normal faults (Dendritic and Tension) are developed on the listric normal growth fault

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Digital Data Encryption Using a Proposed W-Method Based on AES and DES Algorithms
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This paper proposes a new encryption method. It combines two cipher algorithms, i.e., DES and AES, to generate hybrid keys. This combination strengthens the proposed W-method by generating high randomized keys. Two points can represent the reliability of any encryption technique. Firstly, is the key generation; therefore, our approach merges 64 bits of DES with 64 bits of AES to produce 128 bits as a root key for all remaining keys that are 15. This complexity increases the level of the ciphering process. Moreover, it shifts the operation one bit only to the right. Secondly is the nature of the encryption process. It includes two keys and mixes one round of DES with one round of AES to reduce the performance time. The W-method deals with

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Intelligent Systems
A study on predicting crime rates through machine learning and data mining using text
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Abstract<p>Crime is a threat to any nation’s security administration and jurisdiction. Therefore, crime analysis becomes increasingly important because it assigns the time and place based on the collected spatial and temporal data. However, old techniques, such as paperwork, investigative judges, and statistical analysis, are not efficient enough to predict the accurate time and location where the crime had taken place. But when machine learning and data mining methods were deployed in crime analysis, crime analysis and predication accuracy increased dramatically. In this study, various types of criminal analysis and prediction using several machine learning and data mining techniques, based o</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Stability And Data Dependence Results For The Mann Iteration Schemes on n-Banach Space
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Let  be an n-Banach space, M be a nonempty closed convex subset of , and S:M→M be a mapping that belongs to the class  mapping. The purpose of this paper is to study the stability and data dependence results of a Mann iteration scheme on n-Banach space

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 24 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Morphology Detection in Archaeological Ancient Sites by Using UAVs/Drones Data and GIS techniques
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    Today, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) or Drones are a valuable source of data on inspection, surveillance, mapping and 3D modelling matters. Drones can be considered as the new alternative of classic manned aerial photography due to their low cost and high spatial resolution. In this study, drones were used to study archaeological sites. The archaeological Nineveh site, which is a very famous site located in heart of the city of Mosul, in northern Iraq, was chosen. This site was the largest capital of the Assyrian Empire 3000 years ago. The site contains an external wall that includes many gates, most of which were destroyed when Daesh occupied the city in 2014. The local population of the city of Mosul has also large

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Inverting Gravity Data to Density and Velocity Models for Selected Area in Southwestern Iraq
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The gravity method is a measurement of relatively noticeable variations in the Earth’s gravitational field caused by lateral variations in rock's density. In the current research, a new technique is applied on the previous Bouguer map of gravity surveys (conducted from 1940–1950) of the last century, by selecting certain areas in the South-Western desert of Iraqi-territory within the provinces' administrative boundary of Najaf and Anbar. Depending on the theory of gravity inversion where gravity values could be reflected to density-contrast variations with the depths; so, gravity data inversion can be utilized to calculate the models of density and velocity from four selected depth-slices 9.63 Km, 1.1 Km, 0.682 Km and 0.407 Km.

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 14 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Effect OF Film Thickness And Annealing Time on Structural And Optical Propertieis Of The Oxides (Fe2030, Co304) And Their Mixtures
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Thin film technology is one of the most important technologies
that have contributed to the development of semiconductors and their
applications in several industrial fields. The Iron Oxides (Fe20) and
(Co3O4) thin films and their applications are of importance, in that these
two materials are considered as important industrial materials, and used
in spectrally selective coating, temperature sensors, resistive heaters, and
photo cells.
Thin films of Iron Oxide (Fe20,), Cobalt Oxide (Co304) and
their mixtures in different ratios (75:25, 50:50, 25:75) were prepared by
the method of chemical spray pyrolysis deposition at different thicknesses
(77s t S200) nm on cover-glass substrates: thickness of (1) mm at

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