Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
A total of 1453 freshwater fishes, belonging to 14 species of the
family Cyprinidae was collected from Lesser Zab and Greater Zab
rivers in north of Iraq during the period from November 2000 to the
end of November 2001. The inspection of skin, gills and different
internal organs revealed the infection of these fishes with a total of 14
species of Myxobolus which included seven species that represented
their first record in Iraq. These species included M. bulbocordis from
both Barbus sharpeyi and Chondrostoma regium; M. karuni from B
grypus; M. mesopotamiae from B. luteus; M. molnári from B
esocinus; M. pcrsicus from both B. grypus and Cyprinion macrostomum;
M. Shaagani from both B. b
The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I
... Show MoreExperiments were conducted to study the behavior of the solid particles (proppant) inside the hydraulic fracture during the formation stimulation, and study the effect of the proppant concentration on the hydraulic fracturing process, which lead to bridge and screen-out conditions inside the fractures across the fracture width that restricts fracturing fluid to flow into the hydraulic fracture. The research also studies the effect of the ratio between the fracture size and the average particles diameter “proppant", on fracture bridging. In this study two ratios were considered β= 2 and 3 ,where β=Dt / Dp where: Dt= hydraulic fracture size (width) and Dp=Average particles diameter.
This work pr
... Show MoreEquilibrium and rate of mixing of free flowing solid materials are found using gas fluidized bed. The solid materials were sand (size 0.7 mm), sugar (size0.7 mm) and 15% cast iron used as a tracer. The fluidizing gas was air with velocity ranged from 0.45-0.65 m/s while the mixing time was up to 10 minutes. The mixing index for each experiment was calculated by averaging the results of 10 samples taken from different radial and axial positions in fluidized QVF column 150 mm ID and 900 mm height.
The experimental results were used in solving a mathematical model of mixing rate and mixing index at an equilibrium proposed by Rose. The results show that mixing index increases with inc
... Show MoreIn this research, we dealt with the study of the Non-Homogeneous Poisson process, which is one of the most important statistical issues that have a role in scientific development as it is related to accidents that occur in reality, which are modeled according to Poisson’s operations, because the occurrence of this accident is related to time, whether with the change of time or its stability. In our research, this clarifies the Non-Homogeneous hemispheric process and the use of one of these models of processes, which is an exponentiated - Weibull model that contains three parameters (α, β, σ) as a function to estimate the time rate of occurrence of earthquakes in Erbil Governorate, as the governorate is adjacent to two countr
... Show MoreThe wave functions of the coherent states of the charged oscillator in magnetic field are obtained via a canonical transformation. The numerical calculations of these functions are made and then the space and time plots are obtained. It was shown that these states are Gaussians distributions of widths vary periodically in an opposite way with their peaks. We interpret that is due to the mutual actions of the spreading effect of the wave packet and the reaction of the magnetic field.
Agile methodologies are adopted extensively by many of the software industries as it is flexible in nature as well as can address the required changes in any phase of development. Authentic estimation of the software products is not an easy task as it requires continuous attention of the product owner. Effort and cost can be estimated in a proper manner to ensure the success of the project. In this article, we considered the Scrum-based Agile projects that are developed into several Sprints. We proposed an extension to an existing algorithm, based on a total of 36 success factors; that estimate the development cost and effort required to complete the project. For estimation and computations, we have taken a dataset of 12 project
... Show MoreEleven hymenopterous species: two braconids, seven eulophids and two pteromalids
parasitized the larvae of Phytomyza horticola Goureau. The activity of the parasites began at
the end of April and evidently increased during May. The female of the parasites fed and
parasitized mostly on the second and third larval instars of P. horticola . Diglyphus iseae
Walker and Cirrospilus vittatus Walker were dominant larval parasites. Chrysocharis
pentheus Walker and Pediobius acantha Walker were main pupal parasites.
Faces blurring is one of the important complex processes that is considered one of the advanced computer vision fields. The face blurring processes generally have two main steps to be done. The first step has detected the faces that appear in the frames while the second step is tracking the detected faces which based on the information extracted during the detection step. In the proposed method, an image is captured by the camera in real time, then the Viola Jones algorithm used for the purpose of detecting multiple faces in the captured image and for the purpose of reducing the time consumed to handle the entire captured image, the image background is removed and only the motion areas are processe
... Show MoreThe result of a developed mathematical model for predicting the design
parameters of the fiber Raman amplifier (FRA) are demonstrated. The amplification
parameters are tested at different pump power with different fiber length. Recently,
the FRA employed in optical communication system to increase the repeater distance
as will as the capacity of the communication systems. The output results show, that
high Raman gain can be achieved by high pumping power, long effective area that
need to be small for high Raman gain. High-stimulated Raman gain coefficient is
recommended for high Raman amplifier gain, the low attenuation of the pump and the
transmitted signal in the fiber lead to high Raman gain.