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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Tue May 23 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Modeling and Simulation of Copper Removal from the Contaminated Soil by a Combination of Adsorption and Electro-kinetic Remediation
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Electro-kinetic remediation technology is one of the developing technologies that offer great promise for the cleanup of soils contaminated with heavy metals. A numerical model was formulated to simulate copper (Cu) transport under an electric field using one-dimensional diffusion-advection equations describing the contaminant transport driven by chemical and electrical gradients in soil during the electro-kinetic remediation as a function of time and space. This model included complex physicochemical factors affecting the transport phenomena, such as soil pH value, aqueous phase reaction, adsorption, and precipitation. One-dimensional finitedifference computer program successfully predicted meaningful values for soil pH profiles and Cu

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Application of the Variational Iteration Method for the time-fractional Kaup-Kupershmidt Equation and the Boussinesq-Burger equation
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     The variational iteration method is used to deal with linear and nonlinear differential equations. The main characteristics of the method lie in its flexibility and ability to accurately and easily solve nonlinear equations. In this work, a general framework is presented for a variational iteration method for the analytical treatment of partial differential equations in fluid mechanics. The Caputo sense is used to describe fractional derivatives. The time-fractional Kaup-Kupershmidt (KK) equation is investigated, as it is the solution of the system of partial differential equations via the Boussinesq-Burger equation. By comparing the results that are obtained by the variational iteration method with those obtained by the two-dim

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Publication Date
Wed May 31 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Sustainable Development And Planning
Prediction of Formal Transformations in City Structure (Kufa as a Model) Based on the Cellular Automation Model and Markov Chains
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The research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
List of Scorpions Recorded For the First Time in Iraq
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 The present study is the first taxonomic study on scorpions in Iraq. The specimens were collected from regions in the middle and south of Iraq, three families, seven genera and eight  species were recorded for the first time in Iraq and one new species of the world. 

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Remote Patient Healthcare surveillance system based real-time vital signs
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Today many people suffering from health problems like dysfunction in lungs and cardiac. These problems often require surveillance and follow up to save a patient's health, besides control diseases before progression. For that, this work has been proposed to design and developed a remote patient surveillance system, which deals with 4 medical signs (temperature, SPO2, heart rate, and Electrocardiogram ECG. An adaptive filter has been used to remove any noise from the signal, also, a simple and fast search algorithm has been designed to find the features of  ECG signal such as Q,R,S, and T waves.  The system performs analysis for medical signs that are used to detected abnormal values. Besides, it sends data to the Base-Stati

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 Ieee 9th International Conference On System Engineering And Technology (icset)
A Digital Signature System Based on Real Time Face Recognition
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This study proposed a biometric-based digital signature scheme proposed for facial recognition. The scheme is designed and built to verify the person’s identity during a registration process and retrieve their public and private keys stored in the database. The RSA algorithm has been used as asymmetric encryption method to encrypt hashes generated for digital documents. It uses the hash function (SHA-256) to generate digital signatures. In this study, local binary patterns histograms (LBPH) were used for facial recognition. The facial recognition method was evaluated on ORL faces retrieved from the database of Cambridge University. From the analysis, the LBPH algorithm achieved 97.5% accuracy; the real-time testing was done on thirty subj

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Computers & Mathematics With Applications
Simultaneous determination of time-dependent coefficients in the heat equation
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 03 2021
Journal Name
Lubricants
UV-Visible Spectrophotometer for Distinguishing Oxidation Time of Engine Oil
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Samples of gasoline engine oil (SAE 5W20) that had been exposed to various oxidation times were inspected with a UV-Visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometer to select the best wavelengths and wavelength ranges for distinguishing oxidation times. Engine oil samples were subjected to different thermal oxidation periods of 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, and 144 hours, resulting in a range of total base number (TBN) levels. Each wavelength (190.5 – 849.5 nm) and selected wavelength ranges were evaluated to determine the wavelength or wavelength ranges that could best distinguish among all oxidation times. The best wavelengths and wavelength ranges were analyzed with linear regression to determine the best wavelength or range to predict oxidation t

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2016
Journal Name
Chalcogenide Letters
THEORETICAL MODELING OF THE ELECTRONIC PROPERTIES CORE AND SURFACE OF CdSe1-xTex CHALCOGENIDE NANOCRYSTALS VIA DFT CALCULATION
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Studying and Modeling the Effect of Graphite Powder Mixing Electrical Discharge Machining on the Main Process Characteristics
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Abstract

This paper concerned with study the effect of a graphite micro powder mixed in the kerosene dielectric fluid during powder mixing electric discharge machining (PMEDM) of high carbon high chromium AISI D2 steel. The type of electrode (copper and graphite), the pulse current and the pulse-on time and mixing powder in kerosene dielectric fluid are taken as the process main input parameters. The material removal rate MRR, the tool wear ratio TWR and the work piece surface roughness (SR) are taken as output parameters to measure the process performance. The experiments are planned using response surface methodology (RSM) design procedure. Empirical models are developed for MRR, TWR and SR, using the analysis

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