Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Electro-kinetic remediation technology is one of the developing technologies that offer great promise for the cleanup of soils contaminated with heavy metals. A numerical model was formulated to simulate copper (Cu) transport under an electric field using one-dimensional diffusion-advection equations describing the contaminant transport driven by chemical and electrical gradients in soil during the electro-kinetic remediation as a function of time and space. This model included complex physicochemical factors affecting the transport phenomena, such as soil pH value, aqueous phase reaction, adsorption, and precipitation. One-dimensional finitedifference computer program successfully predicted meaningful values for soil pH profiles and Cu
... Show MoreThe variational iteration method is used to deal with linear and nonlinear differential equations. The main characteristics of the method lie in its flexibility and ability to accurately and easily solve nonlinear equations. In this work, a general framework is presented for a variational iteration method for the analytical treatment of partial differential equations in fluid mechanics. The Caputo sense is used to describe fractional derivatives. The time-fractional Kaup-Kupershmidt (KK) equation is investigated, as it is the solution of the system of partial differential equations via the Boussinesq-Burger equation. By comparing the results that are obtained by the variational iteration method with those obtained by the two-dim
... Show MoreThe research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from
... Show MoreThe present study is the first taxonomic study on scorpions in Iraq. The specimens were collected from regions in the middle and south of Iraq, three families, seven genera and eight species were recorded for the first time in Iraq and one new species of the world.
Today many people suffering from health problems like dysfunction in lungs and cardiac. These problems often require surveillance and follow up to save a patient's health, besides control diseases before progression. For that, this work has been proposed to design and developed a remote patient surveillance system, which deals with 4 medical signs (temperature, SPO2, heart rate, and Electrocardiogram ECG. An adaptive filter has been used to remove any noise from the signal, also, a simple and fast search algorithm has been designed to find the features of ECG signal such as Q,R,S, and T waves. The system performs analysis for medical signs that are used to detected abnormal values. Besides, it sends data to the Base-Stati
... Show MoreThis study proposed a biometric-based digital signature scheme proposed for facial recognition. The scheme is designed and built to verify the person’s identity during a registration process and retrieve their public and private keys stored in the database. The RSA algorithm has been used as asymmetric encryption method to encrypt hashes generated for digital documents. It uses the hash function (SHA-256) to generate digital signatures. In this study, local binary patterns histograms (LBPH) were used for facial recognition. The facial recognition method was evaluated on ORL faces retrieved from the database of Cambridge University. From the analysis, the LBPH algorithm achieved 97.5% accuracy; the real-time testing was done on thirty subj
... Show MoreSamples of gasoline engine oil (SAE 5W20) that had been exposed to various oxidation times were inspected with a UV-Visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometer to select the best wavelengths and wavelength ranges for distinguishing oxidation times. Engine oil samples were subjected to different thermal oxidation periods of 0, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120, and 144 hours, resulting in a range of total base number (TBN) levels. Each wavelength (190.5 – 849.5 nm) and selected wavelength ranges were evaluated to determine the wavelength or wavelength ranges that could best distinguish among all oxidation times. The best wavelengths and wavelength ranges were analyzed with linear regression to determine the best wavelength or range to predict oxidation t
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This paper concerned with study the effect of a graphite micro powder mixed in the kerosene dielectric fluid during powder mixing electric discharge machining (PMEDM) of high carbon high chromium AISI D2 steel. The type of electrode (copper and graphite), the pulse current and the pulse-on time and mixing powder in kerosene dielectric fluid are taken as the process main input parameters. The material removal rate MRR, the tool wear ratio TWR and the work piece surface roughness (SR) are taken as output parameters to measure the process performance. The experiments are planned using response surface methodology (RSM) design procedure. Empirical models are developed for MRR, TWR and SR, using the analysis
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