Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Shatt Al-Hilla was considered one of the important branches of Euphrates River that supplies irrigation water to millions of dunams of planted areas. It is important to control the velocity and water level along the river to maintain the required level for easily diverting water to the branches located along the river. So, in this research, a numerical model was developed to simulate the gradually varied unsteady flow in Shatt AL-Hilla. The present study aims to solve the continuity and momentum (Saint-Venant) equations numerically to predict the hydraulic characteristics in the river using Galerkin finite element method. A computer program was designed and built using the programming language FORTRAN-77. Fifty kilometers was consid
... Show MoreIn this research a recent developed practical modeling technique is applied for the glucose regulation system identification. By using this technique a set of mathematical models is obtained instead of single one to compensate for the loss of information caused by the optimization technique in curve fitting algorithms, the diversity of members inside the single set is interpreted in term of restricted range of its parameters, also a diagnosis criteria is developed for detecting any disorder in the glucose regulation system by investigating the influence of variation of the parameters on the response of the system, this technique is applied in this research practically for 20 cases with association of National Center for
... Show MoreThe aim of the current research is to verify the effect of the cognitive modeling strategy on the achievement of the chemistry course for the students of the first intermediate grade. To achieve the objective of the research, the null hypothesis was formulated via cognitive modeling strategy. The results showed that the experimental group's students performed better than the students in the control group. In the light of the results, the researchers concluded: The impact of the cognitive modeling strategy in the achievement of students of first intermediate grade in chemistry.
The main aim of this research paper is investigating the effectiveness and validity of Meso-Scale Approach (MSA) as a modern technique for the modeling of plain concrete beams. Simply supported plain concrete beam was subjected to two-point loading to detect the response in flexural. Experimentally, a concrete mix was designed and prepared to produce three similar standard concrete prisms for flexural testing. The coarse aggregate used in this mix was crushed aggregate. Numerical Finite Element Analysis (FEA) was conducted on the same concrete beam using the meso-scale modeling. The numerical model was constructed to be a bi-phasic material consisting of cement mortar and coarse aggregate. The interface between the two c
... Show MoreAsphaltene is a component class that may precipitate from petroleum as a highly viscous and sticky material that is likely to cause deposition problems in a reservoir, in production well, transportation, and in process plants. It is more important to locate the asphaltene precipitation conditions (precipitation pressure and temperature) before the occurring problem of asphaltene deposition to prevent it and eliminate the burden of high treatment costs of this problem if it happens. There are different models which are used in this flow assurance problem (asphaltene precipitation and deposition problem) and these models depend on experimental testing of asphaltene properties. In this study, the used model was equation of
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Due to the continuing demand for larger bandwidth, the optical transport becoming general in the access network. Using optical fiber technologies, the communications infrastructure becomes powerful, providing very high speeds to transfer a high capacity of data. Existing telecommunications infrastructures is currently widely used Passive Optical Network that apply Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) and is awaited to play an important role in the future Internet supporting a large diversity of services and next generation networks. This paper presents a design of WDM-PON network, the simulation and analysis of transmission parameters in the Optisystem 7.0 environment for bidirectional traffic. The sim
... Show MoreThe mechanical function of the heart is governed by the contractile properties of the cells, the mechanical stiffness of the muscle and connective tissue, and pressure and volume loading conditions on the organ. Although ventricular pressures and volumes are available for assessing the global pumping performance of the heart, the distribution of stress and strain that characterize regional ventricular function and change in cell biology must be known. The mechanics of the equatorial region of the left, ventricle was modeled by a thick-walled cylinder. The tangential (circumferential) stress, radial stress and longitudinal stress in the wall of the heart have been calculated. There are also significant torsional shear in the wall during b
... Show MoreThe Middle Cenomanian-Early Turonian Mishrif Formation includes important carbonate reservoirs in Iraq and some other surrounding countries due to their high reservoir quality and wide geological extension. The 2D models of this study for facies, effective porosity and water saturation indicate the vertical and lateral heterogeneity of the Mishrif Formation reservoir properties in the Majnoon oil field. Construction of 2D reservoir model of the Mishrif Formation to explain the distribution of facies and petrophysical properties (effective porosity and water saturation) by using RockWorks software. The increase of effective porosity is attributed to the presence of shoal facies.The high water saturation is attributed to the existence of rest
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The environmental conditions are important factors, because they affect both the efficiency of a photovoltaic module and the energy load. This research was carried out experimentally and modeling was done in MATLAB –Simulink by monitoring the variation in power output of the system with environmental conditions such as solar radiation, ambient temperature, wind speed, and humidity of Baghdad city. From the results, the ambient temperatures are inversely proportional to humidity and the output power performance of the system, while the wind speed is directly proportional with the output power performance of the system.
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... Show MoreAbstract The purpose of this study, teach the art of performing Olympic lifts (snatch and, clean and jerk) using the two methods are instructional (self-learning associated with the model) and (reverse style of partial way). Identify the effectiveness of these methods in learning the art of performance and style of the best Olympic lifting in the learning and retention of novice for Olympic lifts. The research sample consisted of 16 lifters were selected purposively representing specialist center for the care of athletic talent to weightlifting for ages 14 years. The sample was divided into two experimental, Each group (8) eight weightlifters. The experimental group used the style of the first self-learning associated with the m
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