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Modeling and Forecasting Periodic Time Series data with Fourier Autoregressive Model
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Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Geomechanical Modeling and Artificial Neural Network Technique for Predicting Breakout Failure in Nasiriyah Oilfield
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Wellbore instability is one of the major issues observed throughout the drilling operation. Various wellbore instability issues may occur during drilling operations, including tight holes, borehole collapse, stuck pipe, and shale caving. Rock failure criteria are important in geomechanical analysis since they predict shear and tensile failures. A suitable failure criterion must match the rock failure, which a caliper log can detect to estimate the optimal mud weight. Lack of data makes certain wells' caliper logs unavailable. This makes it difficult to validate the performance of each failure criterion. This paper proposes an approach for predicting the breakout zones in the Nasiriyah oil field using an artificial neural network. It

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 06 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Petrophysical Properties and Reservoir Modeling of Mishrif Formation at Amara Oil Field, Southeast Iraq
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Petrophysical properties of Mishrif Formation at Amara oil field is determined
from interpretation of open log data of (Am-1, 2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ,6 ,7 ,8 ,9 ,10 ,11 ,12
and13) wells. These properties include the total, the effected and the secondary
porosity, as well as the moveable and the residual oil saturation in the invaded and
uninvaded zones. According to petrophysical properties it is possible to divided
Mishrif Formation which has thickness of a proximately 400 m, into seven main
reservoir units (MA, MB11, MB12, MB13, MB21, MC1, MC2) . MA is divided into
four secondary reservoir units , MB11 is divided into five secondary reservoir units ,
MB12 is divided into two secondary reservoir units , MB13 is divided into

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 11 2022
Journal Name
Mathematics
Modeling and Analysis of the Influence of Fear on a Harvested Food Web System
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The food web is a crucial conceptual tool for understanding the dynamics of energy transfer in an ecosystem, as well as the feeding relationships among species within a community. It also reveals species interactions and community structure. As a result, an ecological food web system with two predators competing for prey while experiencing fear was developed and studied. The properties of the solution of the system were determined, and all potential equilibrium points were identified. The dynamic behavior in their immediate surroundings was examined both locally and globally. The system’s persistence demands were calculated, and all conceivable forms of local bifurcations were investigated. With the aid of MATLAB, a numerical simu

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Basic Education
Fuzzy Nonparametric Regression Model Estimation Based on some Smoothing Techniques With Practical Application
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In this research, we use fuzzy nonparametric methods based on some smoothing techniques, were applied to real data on the Iraqi stock market especially the data about Baghdad company for soft drinks for the year (2016) for the period (1/1/2016-31/12/2016) .A sample of (148) observations was obtained in order to construct a model of the relationship between the stock prices (Low, high, modal) and the traded value by comparing the results of the criterion (G.O.F.) for three techniques , we note that the lowest value for this criterion was for the K-Nearest Neighbor at Gaussian function .

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 08 2023
Journal Name
Frontiers In Endocrinology
Estrobolome dysregulation is associated with altered immunometabolism in a mouse model of endometriosis
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Introduction

Endometriosis is a painful disease that affects around 5% of women of reproductive age. In endometriosis, ectopic endometrial cells or seeded endometrial debris grow in abnormal locations including the peritoneal cavity. Common manifestations of endometriosis include dyspareunia, dysmenorrhea, chronic pelvic pain and often infertility and symptomatic relief or surgical removal are mainstays of treatment. Endometriosis both promotes and responds to estrogen imbalance, leading to intestinal bacterial estrobolome dysregulation and a subsequent induction of inflammation.

Methods

In the current study, we investigated the linkage be

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination of Optimum Mechanical Drilling Parameters for an Iraqi Field with Regression Model
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An optimization analysis of drilling process constitutes a powerful tool for operating under desired pressure levels and simultaneously maximizing the penetration rate, which reduces costs and time thus increases the profit.
In this study, a composite drilling model (Young-Bourgyen model) of eight functions was used to determine the optimum drilling mechanical parameters (Weight on bit and rotary speed) for an Iraqi oil field. These functions model the effect of most drilling parameters such as formation strength, mud density, formation compaction, weight on bit, rotary speed, tooth dullness, and bit hydraulic on drilling rate. Data are extracted from bit record and drilling report of well BUZ-20 for calculation of eight exponents of

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Particle-Hole State Density Calculations with Non-Equidistant Spacing Model: I. Basic Derivation
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The basic analytical formula for particle-hole state densities is derived based on the non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) for the single-particle level density (s.p.l.d.) dependence on particle excitation energy u. Two methods are illustrated in this work, the first depends on Taylor series expansion of the s.p.l.d. about u, while the second uses direct analytical derivation of the state density formula. This treatment is applied for a system composing from one kind of fermions and for uncorrected physical system. The important corrections due to Pauli blocking was added to the present formula. Analytical comparisons with the standard formulae for ESM are made and it is shown that the solution reduces to earlier formulae providing m

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 12 2013
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Determination of Optimum Mechanical Drilling Parameters for an Iraqi Field with Regression Model
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 26 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Dynamics of Holling Type IV Prey Predator Model with Intra- Specific Competition
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In this paper a prey-predator model involving Holling type IV functional response
and intra-specific competition is proposed and analyzed. The local stability analysis of
the system is carried out. The occurrence of a simple Hopf bifurcation is investigated.
The global dynamics of the system is investigated with the help of the Lyapunov
function and poincare-bendixson theorem. Finally, the numerical simulation is used to
study the global dynamical behavior of the system. It is observed that, the system has
either stable point or periodic dynamics.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Deep Oxidative Desulfurization of Model fuels by Prepared Nano TiO2 with Phosphotungstic acid
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In this study, nano TiO2 was prepared with titanium isopropoxide (TTIP) as a resource to titanium oxide. The catalyst was synthesized using phosphotungstic acid (PTA) and, stearyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (STAB) was used as the structure-directing material. Characterization of the product was done by the X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescent spectroscopy (XRF), nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements, Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra, were used to characterize the calcined TiO2 nanoparticles by STAB and PWA. The TiO2 nanomaterials were prepared in three crystalline forms (amorphous, anatase, anatase-rutile). The results showed that the

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