Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
In this study, nano TiO2 was prepared with titanium isopropoxide (TTIP) as a resource to titanium oxide. The catalyst was synthesized using phosphotungstic acid (PTA) and, stearyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (STAB) was used as the structure-directing material. Characterization of the product was done by the X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescent spectroscopy (XRF), nitrogen adsorption/desorption measurements, Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectra, were used to characterize the calcined TiO2 nanoparticles by STAB and PWA. The TiO2 nanomaterials were prepared in three crystalline forms (amorphous, anatase, anatase-rutile). The results showed that the nanoparticles of anatase TiO2 have good cata
... Show MoreA harvested prey-predator model with infectious disease in preyis investigated. It is assumed that the predator feeds on the infected prey only according to Holling type-II functional response. The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are investigated. The local stability analysis of the harvested prey-predator model is carried out. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the persistence of the model are also obtained. Finally, the global dynamics of this model is investigated analytically as well as numerically. It is observed that, the model have different types of dynamical behaviors including chaos.
Periodontal disease is typically treated with mechanical debridement of the tooth surface. It may, however, be insufficient to eradicate pathogenic microorganisms on its own. Because of the microbial etiology of periodontitis, systemic or local antibiotic therapy is used as an adjunct treatment. The present study aimed to determine the effects of curcumin gel on Porphyromonas gingivalis. Eleven patients with stage II and III periodontitis were registered in the study. A double-blinded split-mouth design followed. Periodontal pockets were distributed into 2 groups; the test group received scaling and root planing along with curcumin gel, while the control group received scaling and root planing along with a placebo gel. Plaque index,
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the study of the element of time in the cinematic language and the role it plays in creating the aesthetic meanings in the documentary film by means of the various structural constructions with which time is constructed. The research included the introduction and the problem of research, which was represented by the following question: (Did the documentary film adopt the values of time formats in the fiction film or it created for itself special linguistic formulations and models which achieve the aesthetic concept?). It also included the importance of research, the need for it and its goal in addition to clarifying the limits of research.The theoretical framework included three sections the first of which is the
... Show MoreThis research studies the effect of particle packing density on sintering TiO2 microstructure. Sintering experiment was conducted on compacts involving of monodisperse spherical TiO2 particles. The experimental results are modeled using L2-Regression technique in studing the effect of two theoretical values of 55% and 69% of initial packing densities. The mathematical simulation shows that the lower values of density compacts sintered fast to theoretical density and this reflects that particle packing density improved densification rate because of the competing influence of grain growth at higher values of densities.
Fading channel modeling is generally defined as the variation of the attenuation of a signal with various variables. Time, geographical position, and radio frequency which is included. Fading is often modeled as a random process. Thus, a fading channel is a communication channel that experiences fading. In this paper, the proposed system presents a new design and simulate a wireless channel using Rayleigh channels. Rayleigh channels using two approaches (flat and frequency-selective fading channels) in order to calculate some path space loss efforts and analysis the performance of different wireless fading channel modeling. The results show that the bite error rate (BER) performance is dramatically improved in the value of signal to
... Show MoreIn the last years, the research of extraction the movable object from video sequence in application of computer vision become wide spread and well-known . in this paper the extraction of background model by using parallel computing is done by two steps : the first one using non-linear buffer to extraction frame from video sequence depending on the number of frame whether it is even or odd . the goal of this step is obtaining initial background when over half of training sequence contains foreground object . in the second step , The execution time of the traditional K-mean has been improved to obtain initial background through perform the k-mean by using parallel computing where the time has been minimized to 50% of the conventional time
... Show MoreThis study aims to set up a 3D static model to characterize and evaluate Mishrif Formation which represents the main reservoir in Buzurgan Oilfield, southern Iraq. Six wells have been selected to set up structural, facies and petrophysical models of Mishrif reservoir by using Petrel Software. The structural model has been built based on the structural contour map of the top of Mishrif Formation, which derived from seismic interpretation, and by using different static algorithms in Petrel Software. The structural model showed that the Buzurgan Oilfield represents an anticlinal fold with two domes north and south separated by a depression. The petrophysical model included the porosity model and water saturation model. Th
... Show MoreCompaction curves are widely used in civil engineering especially for road constructions, embankments, etc. Obtaining the precise amount of Optimum Moisture Content (OMC) that gives the Maximum Dry Unit weight gdmax. is very important, where the desired soil strength can be achieved in addition to economic aspects.
In this paper, three peak functions were used to obtain the OMC and gdmax. through curve fitting for the values obtained from Standard Proctor Test. Another surface fitting was also used to model the Ohio’s compaction curves that represent the very large variation of compacted soil types.
The results showed very good correlation between the values obtained from some publ
... Show MoreThe continuous increase in population has led to the development of underground structures like tunnels to be of great importance due to several reasons. One of these reasons is that tunnels do not affect the living activities on the surface, nor they interfere with the existing traffic network. More importantly, they have a less environmental impact than conventional highways and railways. This paper focuses on using numerical analysis of circular tunnels in terms of their behavior during construction and the deformations that may occur due to overburden and seismic loads imposed on them. In this study, the input data are taken from an existing Cairo metro case study; results were found for the lateral and vertical displacements, the Peak
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