Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
Abstract
The study aims to reveal the level of inclusion of citizenship values in the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. To achieve this objective, the "content analysis" methodology was used. A content analysis card was designed to include (6) main areas of citizenship values, it consisted of (28) sub-indicators of citizenship values that were supposed to be included in the English language textbook series (We Can) for elementary education. The study sample consisted of all the English language textbooks (We Can) series for elementary education, which consisted of (6) textbooks, two for each class. The results of the study indicated that there is a
... Show MoreThe synthesis of the MBIB ligand by the reaction of the BIB ligand with methionine in 1:1 ratio, and the metal complexes with Ni(II), Cu(II), and Pt(IV) were described. All synthesized compounds were characterized using spectroscopic methods such as FT-IR, 1H NMR, UV-VIS, thermal analysis (TG and DSC), atomic absorption (AAS), elemental microanalysis (C.H.N.S), melting point (m.p.), magnetic susceptibility, molar conductivity measurements, and chloride content. All the complexes were electrolytes, and the suggested geometric shapes for the complexes were octahedral. The magnetic properties of the platinum complex were diamagnetic, while those of the nickel and copper complexes were paramagnetic. All synthes
... Show MoreAbstract:
Research Topic: Ruling on the sale of big data
Its objectives: a statement of what it is, importance, source and governance.
The methodology of the curriculum is inductive, comparative and critical
One of the most important results: it is not permissible to attack it and it is a valuable money, and it is permissible to sell big data as long as it does not contain data to users who are not satisfied with selling it
Recommendation: Follow-up of studies dealing with the provisions of the issue
Subject Terms
Judgment, Sale, Data, Mega, Sayings, Jurists
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to model and optimize the fatigue life and hardness of medium carbon steel CK35 subjected to dynamic buckling. Different ranges of shot peening time (STP) and critical points of slenderness ratio which is between the long and intermediate columns, as input factors, were used to obtain their influences on the fatigue life and hardness, as main responses. Experimental measurements of shot peening time and buckling were taken and analyzed using (DESIGN EXPERT 8) experimental design software which was used for modeling and optimization purposes. Mathematical models of responses were obtained and analyzed by ANOVA variance to verify the adequacy of the models. The resul
... Show MoreBuilding Information Modeling (BIM) and Lean Construction (LC) are two quickly growing applied research areas in construction management. This study focuses on identifying the most essential benefits and analyzing the most affecting constraints on the construction sector that construction players face as they attempt to combine BIM-LC in Iraqi construction. Experts assessed 30 benefits and 28 constraints from examining the previous literature, and a two-round Delphi survey formed the responses. Expert consensus analysis was utilized to elaborate and validate responses after descriptive statistical checks had been used for data processing.
According to the study's findings, the benefits include ensuring the most ef
... Show MoreStrengthening of composite beams is highly needed to upgrade the capacities of existing beams. The strengthening methods can be classified as active or passive techniques. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to provide detailed FE simulations for strengthened and unstrengthened steel–concrete composite beams at the sagging and hogging moment regions with and without profiled steel sheeting. The developed models were verified against experimental results from the literature. The verified models were used to present comparisons between the effect of using external post-tensioning and CFRP laminates as strengthening techniques. Applying external post-tensioning at the sagging moment regions is more effective because of the e
... Show MoreSingle-photon detection concept is the most crucial factor that determines the performance of quantum key distribution (QKD) systems. In this paper, a simulator with time domain visualizers and configurable parameters using continuous time simulation approach is presented for modeling and investigating the performance of single-photon detectors operating in Gieger mode at the wavelength of 830 nm. The widely used C30921S silicon avalanche photodiode was modeled in terms of avalanche pulse, the effect of experiment conditions such as excess voltage, temperature and average photon number on the photon detection efficiency, dark count rate and afterpulse probability. This work shows a general repeatable modeling process for significant perform
... Show MoreThe current study summarized the construction of a three-dimensional geological model of the Aquitanian sediments age, which represented by the Euphrates and Serikagni formation in Ajeel Oil Field, where Ajeel Oil Field has structural closure towards northwest - southeast. Sedimentary of the current study consist of limestone, dolomitic limestone, dolomite (compose of skeletal grains, non-skeletal grains and cement) and the appearance of some anhydrite rocks.
The petrographic study of the Euphrates Formation were prepared using a thin section of wells (Aj-1, Aj-4, Aj-5, Aj-6 and Aj-7), Previous studies and geological reports, as well as use well logs data in the statistical analysis by Petrel softwa
... Show MoreThis paper investigate a sensorless speed control of a separately excited dc motor fed from a buck type dc-dc converter. The control system is designed in digital technique by using a two dimension look-up table. The performance of the drive system was evaluated by digital simulation using Simulink toolbox of Matlab.
The removal of cadmium ions from simulated groundwater by zeolite permeable reactive barrier was investigated. Batch tests have been performed to characterize the equilibrium sorption properties of the zeolite in cadmium-containing aqueous solutions. Many operating parameters such as contact time, initial pH of solution, initial concentration, resin dosage and agitation speed were investigated. The best values of these parameters that will achieved removal efficiency of cadmium (=99.5%) were 60 min, 6.5, 50 mg/L, 0.25 g/100 ml and 270 rpm respectively. A 1D explicit finite difference model has been developed to describe pollutant transport within a groundwater taking the pollutant sorption on the permeable reactive barrier (PRB), which i
... Show More