Most frequently used models for modeling and forecasting periodic climatic time series do not have the capability of handling periodic variability that characterizes it. In this paper, the Fourier Autoregressive model with abilities to analyze periodic variability is implemented. From the results, FAR(1), FAR(2) and FAR(2) models were chosen based on Periodic Autocorrelation function (PeACF) and Periodic Partial Autocorrelation function (PePACF). The coefficients of the tentative model were estimated using a Discrete Fourier transform estimation method. FAR(1) models were chosen as the optimal model based on the smallest values of Periodic Akaike (PAIC) and Bayesian Information criteria (PBIC). The residual of the fitted models was diagnosed to be white noise. The in-sample forecast showed a close reflection of the original rainfall series while the out-sample forecast exhibited a continuous periodic forecast from January 2019 to December 2020 with relatively small values of Periodic Root Mean Square Error (PRMSE), Periodic Mean Absolute Error (PMAE) and Periodic Mean Absolute Percentage Error (PMAPE). The comparison of FAR(1) model forecast with AR(3), ARMA(2,1), ARIMA(2,1,1) and SARIMA( 1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model forecast indicated that FAR(1) outperformed the other models as it exhibited a continuous periodic forecast. The continuous monthly periodic rainfall forecast indicated that there will be rapid climate change in Nigeria in the coming yearly and Nigerian Government needs to put in place plans to curtail its effects.
This study investigates the feasibility of a mobile robot navigating and discovering its location in unknown environments, followed by the creation of maps of these navigated environments for future use. First, a real mobile robot named TurtleBot3 Burger was used to achieve the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) technique for a complex environment with 12 obstacles of different sizes based on the Rviz library, which is built on the robot operating system (ROS) booted in Linux. It is possible to control the robot and perform this process remotely by using an Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (Amazon EC2) instance service. Then, the map to the Amazon Simple Storage Service (Amazon S3) cloud was uploaded. This provides a database
... Show MoreCryptography steganography is a practical tool for data security. Hybridization of the cryptography with steganography can provide more security by taking advantage of each technique. This work proposes a method for improving the crypto-stego method by utilizing the proposed dictionary method to modified ciphertext. After that, the modified encrypt ciphertext id was hidden in the text by using the proposed method. For cryptography, an Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) was utilized to encrypt the message. The AES employed a 128bit block size and 256bit key size. The ciphertext characters were then replaced by the characters identified by a dictionary list. The dictionary is time-dependent, where each of the equivalent words shift based o
... Show MoreThe present study deals with successive stages of productive
operations happened to produce a production within each stage befo re it moves to the next one. ll cou ld be deduced that this study is an extension to what bas been mentioned in (1 ) .ln (I), the optimum distribution of di!Terent jobs of workers and machines in the productive operations has been st ud ied whi le the study invol ves the optimum schedule for the succession of these operations presuming that thay have already been distributed on machines and workers (2).A mathematical form has been put for this study to define the "Object.ive Function "
... Show MorePurpose: We report a series of 29 pediatric patients who sustained head injuries due to metallic ceiling fans. They all were admitted to the Emergency Department of Neurosurgery Teaching Hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, during January 2015 to January 2017. Results: Pediatric ceiling fan head injuries are characterized by four traits which distinguish them from other types of head injuries; 1- Most of them were because of climbing on or jumping from furniture between the ages of two and five. 2- Most of them sustained compound depressed skull fracture which associated with intracranial lesions and pneumocephalus. 3- The most common indication for surgical intervention was because of dirty wound which mixed with hairs. 4- These variables were stati
... Show More3D geological model for each reservoir unit comprising the Yamama Formation revealed to that the formation is composed of alternating reservoirs and barriers. In Subba and Luhais fields the formation began with barrier YB-1 and four more barriers (YB-2, YB-3, YB-4, YB-5), separated five reservoirs (YR-A, YR-B, YR-C, YR-D, YR-E) ranging in thickness from 70 to 80 m for each of them deposited by five sedimentary cycles. In the Ratawi field the formation was divided into three reservoir units (YR-A, YR-B, and YR-C) separated by two barrier units (YB-2 and YB-3), the first cycle is missing in Ratawi field.
The study involves 1 well in Luhais field (Lu-12), 3 wells in Subba field (Su-7, Su-8, and Su-9), and 5 wells in Ratawi fi
... Show MoreThe absorption spectrum for three types of metal ions in different concentrations has been studying experimentally and theoretically. The examination model is by Gaius model in order to find the best fitting curve and the equation controlled with this behavior. The three metal ions are (Copper chloride Cu+2, Iron chloride Fe+3, and Cobalt chloride Co+2) with different concentrations (10-4, 10-5, 10-6, 10-7) gm/m3. The spectroscopic study included UV-visible and fluorescence spectrum for all different concentrations sample. The results refer to several peaks that appear from the absorption spectrum in the high concentration of all metal ions solution.
... Show MoreThe increasing use of polymeric materials in the daily life, leads to challenges in the processing industry to deliver high performance materials with affordable terms. However, new processing techniques lead to high costs. In order to reduce processing costs it is necessary to understand the non-Newtonian behavior of the polymers in their molten state to be able to simulate the processes before the construction of the plants starts. Here the shear thinning behavior of the viscosity of polymeric melts is essential. Thus, this paper deals with the experimental investigation of the thermo-rheological behavior of the viscosity of one of the most used polymers (Polypropylene) over a wide range of temperatures and shear rates. Furthermo
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